2022 Fantasy Baseball Rankings

Turner's excellence depends on his health. He's played more than 148 games only once in his seven-year career. If LA's great weather can keep him on the field, he's a legitimate threat for 30 HRs, 100 RBI and 110 runs in a consistently good Dodgers lineup. But Turner's history makes it more likely he plays in something closer to 120-130 games. Is that worth his top-three ADP? Qualifying at 2B bumps up his value a few ticks, but keeper league owners should beware: He'll return to SS-only eligibility in 2023.

Ahh, the Juan Soto conundrum. Soto is one of the best hitters in baseball. At 23 years old, he's on a Hall of Fame trajectory. His raw power is astounding. But he plays for the suddenly terrible and powerless Washington Nationals. A few years removed from the World Series, the team is now a collection of "That guy is still playing?" and "Never heard of him" types. Soto's HR numbers will be huge, but his R and RBI numbers will take a big hit.

Ramirez continues to be one of fantasy baseball's most bankable commodities, reliably stuffing the stat sheet. His fire-hydrant physique belies impressive speed; he swiped 27 bags last year, including 18 after the All-Star Break. The power numbers are stable. The batting average has been less predictable, but it's probably a good sign that he managed to bat .266 last year despite a .256 BABIP. His supporting cast isn't great, but it wasn't great last year either, and he still scored 111 runs and had 103 RBI. Invest with confidence.

The young slugger put it all together in 2021, tying for the MLB lead in HRs and leading the AL in runs, OBP and slugging percentage in his age-22 season. Statcast numbers and other peripherals fully supported the gaudy surface stats. Guerrero alleviated concerns that he hit the ball on the ground too much by cutting his ground-ball rate from 55% to 44%. Vladito doesn't steal bases, but he gives you everything else. And unlike his famous dad, he's actually willing to take a walk. Guerrero deserves to be taken in the top half of the first round.

The future is bright for this young star as he enters his age-24 season. Bichette broke out in 2021 with an AL-high 191 hits and proved himself to be a true five-category performer. His dad Dante once hit 40 HRs for the Rockies, and Bo seemingly has room for growth in the power department with some launch-angle adjustments, since his ground ball rate last season was just shy of 50%. Bichette doesn't like to take walks, but he hits the ball hard to all fields. Playing in one of MLB's best lineups should help keep his run and RBI totals robust. His 2021 season will be a tough act to follow, but this is a first-round profile.

Mr. Consistency. Draft Harper somewhere between 6 and 10 in the first round, leave him in the lineup and count your blessings. In one of the quietest MVP campaigns in recent memory, Harper did Harper-like things in 2021, with 35 homers, 101 runs, 84 RBI and 13 stolen bases. With the Phillies adding Nick Castellanos to provide Harper with some lineup protection, a 100 RBI season with 110 runs is probably Harper's floor.

Consistency and durability make Cole the most bankable starting pitcher in fantasy baseball. He ranked third in MLB in strikeouts (243) last season and tied for third in wins (16). The last time Cole made fewer than 30 starts in a full season was 2016. His 3.23 ERA and 1.06 WHIP last season were actually high by his standards - his worst numbers in those categories since 2017 - which illustrates just how brilliant he's been in recent years. Cole had an ERA above 4.00 after the All-Star break last season, but his 0.51 ERA in three August starts leaves the impression that his second-half ups and downs were random variance. This is an ace at the height of his powers and a worthy first-round pick.

Why are you even reading this? If you're a fantasy manager who likes to draft starting pitchers in the first round and Burnes is there, you grab him. If he falls to the second round, you grab him. If he falls to the third, you're probably playing fantasy football, and he's probably a better QB than Carson Wentz, so grab him. Burnes won the Cy Young last year and there's nothing in any of his stat projections that show any reason for concern. He's got overall SP1 capabilities. Don't overthink it.

If Betts is healthy, he's an automatic NL MVP candidate. He played through back and hip injuries last year that limited his effectiveness. Reports are that Betts is healthy and ready to resume his spot amongst the game's elite. If he has 2B eligibility in your league, he's even more valuable. If Betts slides to 8, 9, 10 in the first round, snatch him up. If he adds 20 steals to his usually impressive R/HR/RBI tallies, he's going to be in the running for the overall No. 1 player at season's end.

He's destined to end up in Cooperstown, but Trout has been plagued by injuries in what should be the prime of his career. He hasn't played more than 140 games in a season since 2016, and a calf injury last year limited him to just 117 at-bats. If he can stay healthy, he'll hit a bunch of bombs and make major contributions in runs, RBI and batting average. Trout once stole 49 bases, but that was a long time ago, and the SBs might not come back now that he's in his 30s. You're bound to get an injury discount on Trout, and with good reason - the risk of continued health problems is very real. But if you're lucky enough to get 150+ games out of him, you're going to turn a big profit.

This former uber-prospect didn't disappoint in his first full MLB season, delivering the goods in five categories. There's room for more, as Tucker played 140 games and was typically slotted in the bottom half of the Astros' batting order. Tucker's contact rate is on the rise, he makes plenty of hard contact, and his flyball rate is what you're looking for in a power hitter. Tucker will probably never bee among the stolen base leaders, but he swiped 14 bags last year and has 20 SB upside. Tucker might just be scratching the surface of his talents. He figures to go somewhere close to the first-round/second-round turn, but he's destined to be a perennial first-rounder.

It seems odd that Freeman has topped 100 RBI only twice in his career, but he should have little problem getting there now that he'll be batting third for the Dodgers, with Mookie Betts and Trea Turner setting the table for him. Freeman has batted at least .295 every year since 2016. He's not a pure slugger, but his line-drive power should produce 25-35 home runs. He'll even throw in a handful of stolen bases. Now that he's landed in a strong lineup, invest with confidence.

Devers hit a career-high 38 HRs in 2021, and the peripherals say there's more where that came from. He was north of the 90th percentile in average exit velocity, maximum exit velocity and hard hit percentage. Devers doesn't take a lot of walks, but he drives the ball to all fields with authority and should provide a plus batting average. He doesn't run much, but with this sort of hitting profile, that's a minor complaint. He plays in a great hitter's park and has a strong supporting cast. Devers is building an impressive body of work, and he's still only 25. This is a rock-solid investment.

Eventually, his arm is just going to fall off, right? He's going to throw his 9 millionth inning, strike a guy out, remove his limb like something out of "Total Recall," put it on the mound and walk away into the sunset. Seems plausible, because there's no way that arm isn't bionic. The 37-year-old signed a three-year deal to return to the NL East and lead the Mets' rotation. He should be a lock for 200 IP and 250+ Ks. And his new home, Citi Field, is one of the most pitching-friendly parks in baseball. Scherzer probably isn't going to keep an ERA below 2.50, but somewhere around 2.70-2.80 will still make managers smile.

The young White Sox slugger missed more than three months after straining his hip flexor trying to leg out an infield single but went nuclear upon his return, batting .350 with 12 HRs and 35 RBI over his final 43 games. Robert runs, too, with 15 SBs in 124 career games. There's legitimate 30-30 potential here, and it's not hard to imagine Robert producing a 40 HR season at cozy Guaranteed Rate Field. A ridiculous .394 BABIP fueled last year's .338 batting average, so there's bound to be some major recoil in that category. Health is a concern as well, as Robert experienced leg tightness in the playoffs. There's a lot to like here, but a second-round ADP seems a bit rich for a 24-year-old who has yet to play a full season.

In any other year, Acuna, Jr. is an easy top-five pick. The five-category star is a set-it-and-forget-it roster heavyweight. But coming off a gruesome mid-summer ACL tear, he's likely to miss most of April and possibly some of May, and Acuna is unlikely to wreak havoc on the basepaths for the first couple months. He's going to rake once he's healthy, but you might want to pass on Acuna unless you get a significant discount on him.

Ignoring the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Albies stands alone as the only player to score 100 runs, hit 20 home runs and steal 10 bases over each of the last three full seasons. He's a surefire five-category hitter coming into his prime. If Mookie Betts doesn't maintain 2B eligibility in your league, Albies is the No. 2 second baseman behind Trea Turner.

The West Coast bias rears its ugly head again. If the Dodgers' ace pitched in Boston, New York or Chicago, headlines would call him Cy Buehler. If you play in a QS league, Walker is as sure a thing as a traffic jam on the 405. He went six or more innings in all but one of his first 27 starts last year. He'll give you a strikeout an inning, a sub-1.00 WHIP and have you feeling calm, cool and collected as a manager every fifth night. Pitching for a great Dodgers team, Buehler could top 20 wins.

It's going to be awfully hard to score on the Brewers this summer. Woodruff is a Cy Young candidate. His rotation mate Corbin Burnes won the award last year and could again this year. Don't be scared off by Woodruff's miniscule win totals from last season. He only won nine games due to the worst run support in the National League. Had he received the top-15 run support that Burnes had, Woodruff could have easily eclipsed 15 victories. He's projected for a fourth straight season of outstanding K, ERA and WHIP stats. If you can somehow pair Burnes with Woodruff early, you may not need to grab another starting pitcher before the 10th round.

It's a shame you don't get points for defense in fantasy baseball, as that would bolster Machado's falling stock. The former perennial top-10 selection is now going in the late second or early third round. Machado will turn 30 this year, and some positive regression seems to be in order. He's still a five-category contributor, and in a loaded Padres lineup, 80/25/80 with 10 SBs should be on the table. But expecting Machado to return to the 35 HR level would be downright delusional.

Power is his calling card, and Alvarez didn't disappoint in that department last year, mashing 33 HRs with 104 RBI. He had a healthy .277 batting average in 2021 and has a career mark of .290, so the power doesn't come at the expense of BA. The power peripherals are outstanding - he's in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity, maximum exit velocity and hard hit percentage. There could be a 50 HR season lurking here. Alvarez has just one SB in 233 career games, and he's had surgery on both knees. But if those granddad knees hold up, you're likely to be please with your return on investment.

Bieber had a breakout season in 2019, won the Cy Young Award in 2020, and was off to a good start in 2021 before a shoulder strain in mid-June landed him on IL and limited him to just two more starts the rest of the way. Bieber has some of the filthiest breaking stuff in baseball. When he's on, he piles up strikeouts and limits walks and flyballs. Shoulder problems for pitchers are worrisome, but Bieber recently told a Cleveland beat writer he feels great. There's an element of risk here, but it's injury risk, not performance risk. Bieber should continue to be a top starter if he can stay healthy.

All rise! His Honor enjoyed a season of reasonably good health in 2021 and posted a career-high .269 BA to go along with 39 HRs, 98 RBI and 89 runs. His 71% contact rate was the best of his career, and naturally his power peripherals were through the roof. No one punishes baseballs quite like Judge. Health is always a concern, and he doesn't run much, but the power skills should age well as this 6-7, 282-pound brute enters his 30s.

Speed kills. Or at least it does outside of the Big Apple. The Mets haven't had a player swipe 30 or more bases in the last seven seasons. Will they let their big free agent acquisition loose on the basepaths? Even if they do, at 34, will Marte still be an elite bag thief? If he's not running, Marte is a fantasy liability relative to his ADP. He's unlikely to pass the 20-dinger threshold, he's only had one season with 90 or more runs in his career, he's unlikely to equal last year's .372 BABIP, and he's part of the Mets' continually anemic offense. Don't overpay. But if he falls, snatch him up.

The Braves' new slugger posted career highs across the board last season - 39 HRs, 111, RBI, 101 runs and a .271 BA - and as he enters his age-28 season, he should be in his prime. The elite power is here to stay, and after batting .195 in the shortened 2020 season, Olson made huge strides in his contact rate (80%) last year and batted a very respectable .271. Going from Oakland to the Braves' friendlier ballpark could spike his HR total. Olson is a worthy power anchor.

Anderson could fall out of bed and go 2-for-5. His batting averages the last three seasons: .335, .322, .309. At this point, we have to conclude that his consistently high BABIPs aren't fluky. Anderson isn't a truly elite base stealer, but he swiped 18 bags in 123 games last season and could conceivably steal 25-30 bases in a good year. Anderson has consistently been in the 17-20 home run range, so while he won't provide a lot of help in the power department, he won't hurt you either. In a loaded White Sox lineup, Anderson has a chance to score 100 runs if he can stay healthy. Anderson's ADP suggests he might slip into the fourth round of your draft. Pounce on him if he does.

It would normally make sense to be wary of a late-ish bloomer who has a breakout year at age 28. Hernandez established new career highs in basically every offensive category last year, batting .296, belting 32 HRs, driving in 116 runs, scoring 92 times and doubling his previous season high in stolen bases with 12. But the peripheral numbers back it all up. Statcast absolutely loves Hernandez, even backing up the SB breakout by putting him in the 85th percentile for sprint speed. He'll bat cleanup in a stacked Blue Jays lineup and should get ample opportunities to drive in runs. A full repeat of his 2021 numbers might be a stretch, but Hernandez should be able to come close.

He's Japan's greatest gift to MLB since Ichiro, and he offers the greatest combination of hitting and pitching since Babe Ruth. Ohtani's 9.1 WAR in 2021 was more than a full win higher than anyone else's. It's unfortunate that the rules in most fantasy leagues make it impossible for investors to fully tap all of Ohtani's skills. As a hitter, he provides prodigious power, scores runs in bunches and makes meaningful SB contributions. He batted .257 last year, but would it shock anyone if he gave us a .300 season? As a pitcher, Ohtani got his walks under control, struck out 10.8 batters per nine innings, and posted a 9-2 record. It's a dazzling skill set, and if Ohtani stays healthy, he's likely to return something close to first-round value as a hitter. He's a valuable pitcher, too, but to most fantasy owners that's just gravy.

He was batting .321 at the All-Star Break last year, but a wrist injury sapped some of his mojo in the back half of the season. Bogaerts has one of the more stable skill sets in MLB. He has a .290 career average, and his run production has been remarkably stable. You can pencil in Bogaerts for 25 HRs, 90 RBI and 90 runs, and he's likely to hew pretty close to those numbers. Fenway Park and a strong lineup work in his favor. He's been so good for so long, it's hard to believe he's still in his 20s.

In Colorado, Story was a menace. Away from the mile high air, he's just another guy. Since 2019, Story's batting average has been 80 points lower away from Denver, and his slugging percentage is 150 points lower. He's hit 60.1% of his career home runs at Coors Field, and 62% of his career RBI have come there. Now he'll be playing his home games in Fenway Park, arguably the second-best hitters park in baseball. But while Fenway is good for hitters overall, it actually depresses home runs slightly. Let someone else spend the year complaining that they weren't smart enough to dodge this overpriced bullet.

You won't be able to sneak Urias past the rest of your league again after his 20-win campaign in 2021. He's primed to join the ranks of the true aces. The Dodgers will win 100 games, with a top-10 defense. Urias is ready to pitch 200 innings and have a top-10 K/BB ratio. The Dodgers always seem to score in bunches when he's on the hill, so Urias might get 20 wins again. After bringing Urias along slowly, the Dodgers will finally unleash the young star. If he throws 210 innings, Urias will far outperform his fourth-round draft projection.

The city of Baltimore hasn't seen such an unexpectedly high HR total since Brady Anderson smacked 50 homers in 1996. Mullins had hit seven HRs in 374 career at-bats entering 2021. He cleared the fence 30 times last year and added 30 stolen bases for good measure. Mullins played the 2020 season with an undiagnosed case of Crohn's disease, which may have prevented us from seeing the "real" Cedric Mullins. Some pullback on the HR total is probably inevitable, but the speed and other plate skills should remain intact. Looks slightly overpriced at a third-round ADP.

Semien's 45 HRs last season were the most ever by a second baseman. His monster 2021 performance also included 115 runs, 102 RBI and 15 stolen bases. A 48% flyball rate makes Semien a launch angle darling and suggests that he'll keep clearing the fences. He's been a prolific run scorer for the last four seasons. On the other hand, there's some batting average risk here, and Semien probably maxed out his SB potential last year. He's going from a loaded Blue Jays lineup to a sketchy Rangers lineup, and Semien will turn 32 in September. Last year's numbers will make him irresistible to some investors, but a drop-off in value may be imminent.

It's not often a player in a major media market puts up a career season, finishes second in the Cy Young voting and ... nobody seems to notice. Well, friends, Mr. Wheeler would like some more of your attention in 2022, albeit with some caution. His 2.78 ERA last season was a career low. It's likely some regression is coming and his ERA will be in the low 3s. He usually strikes out about a batter an inning, but Wheeler punched out 247 in 213 IP last year. Will he be able to equal that pace? The Phillies are counting on him to do just that at the top of their rotation, but you'd be wise to treat him more like a solid All-Star than a Cy Young favorite. If he's your SP2, life is good. If he's your ace, make sure to load up on solid starting pitching in the mid rounds to bolster your staff behind him.

Giolito doesn't have pinpoint control, and he gives up his fair share of gopher balls, but those are relatively minor warts on an otherwise sterling profile. He's finished 16th, 4th and 16th in strikeouts over the last three seasons. His worst batting average against over that span is .217. Giolito had a 3.53 ERA last year, but it would have been 3.17 if the Red Sox hadn't shelled him for seven runs in one inning in a disastrous Patriots' Day start. At 27, Giolito is entering the prime of his career, and he should benefit from playing on a good team in a soft division.

This late bloomer has been fantasy gold for the last five years. Merrifield stole 40 bases last season at age 32. Durability is a big plus: Merrifield hasn't missed a game in the last three years. But there are some worrisome signs of slippage. His line drive rate has been steadily dropping over the last few seasons, and he hit only two home runs last season from July 1 on. Merrifield has been a terrific value for years, but it's possible he'll be slightly overpriced in 2022 drafts.

Don't overpay for what you hope Nola will be - the 2018 version of the pitcher who looked like he was on a path to superstardom. Nola's name still resonates, but his stats can be easily replicated four or five rounds after his fourth-round ADP. His 2022 ZiPS projection has him finishing 12-7 with a 3.46 ERA. Other systems are projecting his ERA to be closer to 3.75, which basically makes him Frankie Montas. You'd feel foolish drafting Montas 39th, right? Well, if that was your draft slot plan for Nola, think again.

Eventually, Father Time will catch up with the Cardinals slugger. But not this year. If your rival fantasy managers fade Goldy because of his age, take advantage. He can ho-hum his way to 95/30/100/.300, with five to eight stolen bases as a bonus. Goldschmidt will be taken after Austin Riley in most drafts but could easily end up with better numbers at the end of the year.

Perez tied for the MLB lead with 48 home runs in 2021 and had a league-leading 121 RBI. After missing the entire 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery and playing 37 of 60 games in 2020, Perez played 161 games last year (40 as a DH) and went to the plate 665 times. He's bound to get fewer PAs this season, and some HR pullback is probably inevitable, but the Statcast numbers show that Perez crushes the ball when he makes contact. His career batting averages have been all over the map, and he doesn't run, but the power and run production are legit. Perez deserves to be the first catcher off the board, but he might be drafted too early after last season's homer-fest.

"It's a deep drive to left field by Castellanos" has become baseball's best meme, which overshadows the fact that Castellanos has been one of baseball's most underrated power bats over the last half decade. The 29-year-old picked the perfect year to enter free agency, coming off a 2021 campaign with a .576 SLG% and a .938 OPS. The move to Philadelphia should be a good one, as it gives Castellanos a chance to bat cleanup directly behind Bryce Harper.

A classic power-hitting first baseman, Alonso is most likely going to deliver 40 HR, 100 RBI and should cross the plate close to 100 times. He's a plug-and-play option. Some managers like to punt on first base until later in the draft, but if you want to secure your power numbers late in the fourth round or early in the fifth, Alonso is a rock-solid choice.

Lindor melted like hot butter under the New York spotlight. Last year's $341 million free agent signing was - how do we put this nicely? - awful. Simply awful. There was no pop in his bat, as evidenced by a career-low SLG%. He struck out 96 times in only 125 games, well above his career average, and became an albatross on Mets owner Steve Cohen's hopes and dreams. Lindor is the biggest boom-or-bust top-50 player in the game. If you believe last year was an aberration, snap him up in the late third or early fourth round. If you believe the Mets are going to regret backing up the Brinks truck for a player on an early decline, let someone else get saddled by a name that may well be better than the stats.

Get a season of reasonably good health out of Buxton and you're likely to run a profit, probably a big one. But what are the chances he'll play 150 or more games? In the five non-COVID years that he's been on the Twins' Opening Day roster, Buxton has averaged 81.6 games played and 271.2 at-bats. In 2021, Buxton missed 39 games with a strained hip, then broke his hand after being hit with a pitch in his third game back, causing him to miss another month. When healthy, Buxton will steal a lot of bases and score plenty of runs. He's added power, too, and he batted .306 over 61 games last year. Still only 28, Buxton has upside galore, but the risk level here is enormous.

Every year, there are arguments about the value of closers. Fantasy managers who consistently win leagues say having one or two elite closers is a season maker. Fantasy managers who say closers are always available on the wire and to never draft one before the 12th round usually spend August and September complaining that they lost the league by a half-dozen points because of a lack of saves and a bloated WHIP. Hader isn't just a closer. His numbers are so spectacular in just one or two innings of work at a time that rostering him is like getting half a season of an ace starter while also getting 35 saves. His Ks can cover for your lower-tier starters who can't reach that baseline K/IP number you want, and his paper-thin WHIP can move the needle. If you're on the wrong end of the snake draft and he's there at the fifth-round/sixth-round turn, grab him and start the closer run.

For three straight years, this talented youngster has cut down on his walk rate and increased his strikeout rate. Those are the kinds of year-over-year rate improvements fantasy managers want to see from their SP2 or SP3. There's no reason to believe Alcantra can't be even better this year, building on his 3.19 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 201 Ks in 205 IP from last season. At 26, he's coming into his prime. If Alcantrara continues to improve, he could easily finish as a top-10 starter.

He's been lights-out for three years now. Hendricks led the AL with 38 saves last year, finishing one save behind MLB leader Mark Melancon. And, man, did Hendricks earn those saves. In 71 innings, he had 113 strikeouts and gave up only seven walks. For a second straight year, he gave up fewer than six hits per nine innings. His combined WHIP over the past two years is 0.72. Hendricks' flyball rate crept above 50% last year, leading to 11 gopher balls, but that's a small blemish on an otherwise flawless profile. Invest confidently in one of the game's best closers.

Quad and knee injuries limited Springer to 78 games in his first season with the Blue Jays, but he mashed when healthy, with 22 HRs, 50 RBI and 59 runs in just 299 at-bats. Springer has consistently posted batting averages in the .260s or higher during his career, and he'll steal a handful of bases for you. Batting leadoff with Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero and Teoscar Hernandez behind him, Springer has a great chance to score 100 or more runs. He'll turn 33 in August, but he seems to be aging gracefully. Springer is a solid investment.

This is one of the riskiest bets in fantasy baseball for 2022. Ray tamed his chronic wildness in 2021, pounding the strike zone with his electric stuff and turning in a Cy Young season. But do you really want to wager that the control problems won't return? Ray walked 2.4 batter per 9 innings last year. His career average is 3.9 walks per 9 innings. Ray yielded a career-low BABIP of .269 last year. If there's regression in Ray's hit and walk rates, the results could be toxic. There's an enormous range of outcomes here. We saw the best of Ray last year, and he was immensely valuable. In his bad seasons, he's been a negative-value player. Where on the spectrum he lands this year is anyone's guess. Invest at your own risk.

The Rays' wunderkind signed an 11-year, $182 million contract in November and now simply has to go about the business of becoming the superstar everyone expects him to become. Franco scored 53 runs and had 39 RBI in only 70 games last season. He also displayed impressive plate patience and remarkable contact skills as a 20-year-old rookie. He's not a speed merchant, and the power might take time to develop, but Franco should score a lot of runs, drive in a lot of runs and produce something close to a .300 batting average.

Riley's value swings wildly depending on whether you play in an OBP league or a BA league. In the former, he's a four category stud. In the latter, he's a slightly overvalued three category asset. The young slugger should continue to get better, but reaching last year's ceiling may not be realistic. Kim Kardashian has a better chance of winning an Oscar for Best Actress than Riley does of equaling his 2021 second-half .397 BABIP. That said, while you don't want to reach for him based on his RBI numbers last year, the 3B position isn't as deep as usual, so Riley isn't a bad pick in the fifth or sixth round.

He's not going to surprise anyone anymore. The young Brewers starter shocked everyone last season, posting 195 Ks in just 144.1 innings with a sub-3.00 ERA and a shocking sub-1.00 WHIP. Amazingly, despite those gaudy stats, he'll be the third Brewers starter drafted. Unreal. If he can get any run support, 15 wins isn't out of the question. Expect Peralta's ERA and WHIP to rise some, but the strikeouts are for real. If he's your SP3, you have a VERY good pitching staff. Now go find some bats.

You could do a lot worse than O'Neil as your second outfielder. You're in great shape if somehow your third outfielder. He's a second-tier five-category guy, although O'Neill's .366 BABIP in 2021 suggests that he's probably not going to bat .286 again. The peripherals suggest that O'Neill's power is legit, however. He's not a guy you reach for, but if he starts to fall, grab him. O'Neill is only 26, so it's possible he'll turn in a season that ends up much better than his ADP.

Give the ascending slugger a mulligan for an ill-fated 2021 season. Jimenez ruptured a pectoral tendon in a spring training game and didn't come back until July 26. His surface stats in his 55 games were decent - 10 HRs, 37 RBI a .249 average - but Jimenez didn't live up to the promise he showed in the shortened 2020 season, when he had 14 HRs, 41 RBI and a .296 average. Expect a rebound and substantial power numbers. Speed isn't part of the package - he's played 232 career games and still hasn't stolen a base - but that's the only weakness here. It's only a matter of time before Jimenez gives us a 40 HR season.

After a forgettable short season in 2020, Altuve tied a career high with 31 home runs last year, scored a career-high 117 runs and had 83 RBI despite hitting in the leadoff spot. The peripherals suggest that Altuve's 2021 HR total was somewhat fluky and park-aided. Altuve used to be good for 30+ stolen bases a season, but he's had 11 SBs in his last two full seasons combined. The days of .300 batting averages may be gone, too. Altuve has been below .300 in each of the last three seasons and has batted .277 over that span. We should at least be able to count on a lot of runs with Altuve batting at the top of a stacked lineup, but the ceiling here isn't what it used to be. Exercise caution as Altuve enters his age-32 season.

He hasn't turned into the superstar we thought he was going to become, but he's still got power and will still knock in runs, and now he'll be doing his mashing at Coors Field. Bryant might not have been worth a top-100 selection if he landed in a bad spot, but going to the Rockies gives him a significant value boost.

The playoff hero of 2020 provided a satisfying encore by being named 2021 AL Rookie of the Year, though there was some slippage. After belting 10 HRs in 20 playoff games two seasons ago, Arozarena hit 20 homers in 141 games last season and struck out 170 times. A modest flyball rate and ordinary Statcast numbers suggest that Arozarena probably won't provide elite power numbers. Last year's 37% hit rate fueled a .274 batting average that may not be sustainable. On the bright side, he had 20 SBs on 30 attempts. There are a multiple paths to value here, but still, Arozarena is a high-profile player likely to be overdrafted.

The White Sox slugger continues to be one of the most reliable investments in fantasy baseball. He hit 30 homers last year, with 117 RBI and 86 runs. In seven full MLB seasons, Abreu has produced 30 or more HRs five times and 100 or more RBI six times. His .261 batting average last season was the lowest of his career, but he batted .280 from July 1 on. His exit velocities and hard-hit percentage say that he still crushes baseballs with authority. If you get an age discount, pounce.

Seager will play with an American League team for the first time after the Rangers gave him a 10-year $325 million deal. Seager will rake when healthy. He's batted .307 and .306 the last two years and has a career average of .297. He also makes solid contributions in HRs, RBI and runs. Seager won't offer much help in the SB department, however. There's little performance risk, but there's a lot of health risk. Seager had both hip surgery and Tommy John surgery in 2018, and he missed more than two months with a broken hand last year. He's in the prime of his career and figures to offer a satisfying return on investment if he can stay healthy.

Martinez got the bad taste of 2020 out of his mouth with a fine 2021 season. After batting .213 and hitting only seven HRs in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, Martinez batted .286 last year with 28 HRs, 99 RBI and 92 runs. Martinez is 34, so there's some age-related risk, but his 2021 Statcast numbers and other peripheral stats suggest that his skill set is aging well. He plays in a great hitter's park, and batting behind Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts should provide plenty of RBI opportunities. FantasyPros rankers like Martinez much more than the general public does - an indication that he's probably a value.

At age 30, Gausman finally put it all together over a full season and got himself into the Cy Young conversation. Gausman had a K/BB ratio of 4.5/1 last year and induced swinging strikes on better than 15% of his pitches for a third straight season. His .275 BABIP in 2021 says there was a small element of luck involved, but most of the numbers fully support his banner year (which followed his strong showing in the COVID-shortened 2020 season). Gausman's splitter has become one of the most effective pitches in baseball. The move to the AL East is a mixed bag. On one hand, the Jays should win a lot of games. On the other hand, Gausman will make a good percentage of his starts against the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees.

There's a scene in the movie "Draft Day" where the Cleveland Browns GM played by Kevin Costner writes down a name on a sticky note before the draft. It's the name of the one guy he can't leave the draft without. I'll be writing Max Fried's name on my sticky note. Pencil him in for 17 wins on a great Braves team, a top-40 overall ranking, about one strikeout per inning, a beautiful WHIP and an ERA right around the 3.00 mark. Not bad for a guy with an ADP around 70.

If only fantasy baseball awarded points for spectacular defensive plays. Alas, you're stuck relying only on Arenado's bat. That ain't half bad - but it's no longer worth overpaying for. In his first season outside of Colorado, the highlight-reel third baseman showed that he can still rake. But as anticipated, his BA, OBP and OPS all dropped. Now on the wrong side of 30, Arenado is realistically a 2.5-category guy. He'll help you in HR and RBI, and he won't hurt you in runs, but let someone else in your league jump on him early based on name recognition. You can get 80 percent of his production from other third basemen three to four rounds later than Arenado is expected to go.

The free-swinging middle infielder signed a six-year, $140 million contract with the Tigers. Baez led the NL with 184 strikeouts last year but also belted 31 homers, had 87 RBI and 80 runs, and batted a respectable .265. This is a strange, volatile skill set, but Baez can usually be counted on to provide help with the counting stats. He won't hurt you in leagues that use batting average, but his unwillingness to take a walk becomes a liability in OBP leagues.

Guys with recurring muscle injuries scare me. They're one wrong step away from missing a month. Marte terrifies me. Ever since his 2019 breakout that had all of us wondering if we'd be better off with Marte or Ozzie Albies (lol, what were we thinking?), Marte has had trouble staying healthy. Arizona is likely to give him more rest this season with the goal of keeping him on the field. He'll still help you in average, and he has a little pop in his bat, but he's one of the riskier investments in fantasy baseball.

If you're the type of manager who loads up on bats early, knowing that there are always pitchers who'll turn in solid numbers available later on - guys who'll give you 25-30 starts and won't have more than a few clunkers - Musgrove is your guy. In San Diego's pitcher's park with a good defense behind him, Musgrove should produce solid strikeout totals, with a mid-3.00s ERA and a low 1.10s WHIP. Draft him. Play him. Sure, you'll forget he's on your team half the time, but enjoy the pretty stats.

Webb is going too high in drafts for my liking. He altered his pitching style after a horrid start last year, but will that be enough to continue to stymie hitters once they've had time to adjust to him? His hot finish to the 2021 season on a scorching Giants team propelled him higher on draft boards than his stats warrant. Fantasy managers can find a bunch of starting pitchers who'll finish the season within a couple ticks of Webb in ERA, WHIP and Ks and will be available 20-30 spots after Webb's seventh-round ADP.

Berrios may have finally arrived as an ace last season, yet he's still very affordable in fantasy drafts. His 3.52 ERA in 2021 was the lowest of his career. Berrios walked just 2.1 batters per nine innings last year and had a K/BB ratio of 4.5/1. He's as durable as they come, having made 32 starts in each of his last three full seasons. Berrios will spend his first full season in the rugged AL East, but with a loaded Blue Jays lineup giving him run support, he has a good chance to exceed 14 wins for the first time in his career. Entering his age-28 season, Berrios should be at the height of his powers.

In 2021, Lowe became a full-time player for the first time in his career and responded with 39 HRs, 99 RBI and 97 runs. He batted only .247 last year and struck out 167 times in 615 plate appearances. Lowe has also struggled against lefties throughout his career. But Lowe's first-half/second-half splits were eye-opening. He was batting .208 at the All-Star break; Lowe batted .292 after the break and dramatically reduced his strikeout rate without sacrificing any power. If the second-half adjustments stick, Lowe might actually be able to improve upon his breakout season.

If only we could transfer this skill set to a more durable body. Mondesi is a stolen base machine with some surprising pop in his bat, but he hasn't played in more than 102 games or made more than 443 plate appearances in any season, and he's played more than 75 games only once. Leg and foot injuries limited him to only 35 games last year, yet Mondesi still managed to swipe 15 bags and belt six home runs. He strikes out a ton, doesn't take walks and has a .249 career batting average, but his contributions in the counting categories (especially steals) more than make up for it. This is all about risk tolerance, and you're obligated to bake some missed games into Mondesi's price.

Morton is 38 years old. He's coming back from a broken fibula. And yet, he's a perfect SP3 target. Morton is the Honda Civic in your driveway that just refuses to die. It delivers reliable performance, week in and week out. Excluding the off-kilter 2020 pandemic short season, Morton has given managers a sub-3.40 ERA and sub-1.20 WHIP with good strikeout totals and double-digit wins in four straight seasons. The Braves have faith he's got a fifth straight season in him.

If he stays relatively healthy, Stanton is probably going to contend for the home run crown. But that's a huge "if," obviously. Stanton enjoyed two relatively healthy seasons in 2018-2019, played 41 combined games in 2019-2020, and managed to play 139 games last year with only one stay on the DL for a quad issue. Statcast numbers show that he's still one of the games top sluggers, and he should have better luck in RBIs and runs than he had last season, when he had 97 and 64, respectively. Stanton doesn't run, but he holds his own in batting average. There's a lot of risk here, particularly with Stanton now well into his 30s, but the lengthy injury history almost guarantees a discount in drafts.

Correa enjoyed one of his finest seasons to date in 2021, establishing new career highs in homers (26) and runs (104). He also had 92 RBI and batted .279. Good health was a key, as he played 148 games. Since breaking into the league in 2015, Correa had played more than 110 games only twice. At 27, Correa is squarely in his prime. His power production is probably maxed out due to his modest flyball rates, but his improved plate patience and robust line drive rates suggest that the healthy batting average and solid run production are easily repeatable. Correa is a free agent, so his landing spot will have a major bearing on his value.

What is zero? The odds that Reynolds stays on the Pittsburgh roster all season. Thanks for playing FantasyPros Jeopardy. I like Reynolds. You should like Reynolds. He has a chance to be a sneaky difference maker, a guy who'll get dealt in July and make a huge difference on a playoff team. In the first half of the season, he'll give you solid numbers in a lineup void of talent. Once he ends up in the No 3 or No. 5 spot in a lineup surrounded by stars, he'll put up top-50 numbers.

The Angels' closer keeps getting better and better. His K rate has risen in each of the last three seasons. His walk rate has shrunk in each of the last four seasons. Iglesias struck out 103 batters in 70 innings last year and walked only 12. He's notched at least 28 saves in each of his last four full seasons going back to 2017, and he's cemented his reputation as one of the best, most reliable closers in the game. If you don't have the stomach for saves speculation and are willing to pay for quality, Iglesias is well worth the price.

Polanco enjoyed the finest season of his career in 2021, batting .269 with 33 HRs, 98 RBI, 97 runs and 11 SBs. He went nuclear after the All-Star break, batting .287 with 21 homers. Could it be that Polanco feels less pressure as a second baseman than as a shortstop, and his hitting has benefitted as a result? Polanco has always been a line drive machine, so even if the power gains don't stick (and there's a good chance they won't), he should still deliver a healthy batting average. Dual 2B-SS eligibility is a plus. Polanco is a worthy investment, but don't pay for a full repeat of the power.

Montas has taken his investors on a wild ride the past few seasons. He got off to a fast start in 2019 but received an 80-game suspension after testing positive for a banned substance. Montas pitched poorly in 2020, posting a 5.60 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 11 starts. Last year, Montas took a 6.20 ERA into May but then pulled it all together and was lights-out in the second half, with a 2.17 ERA in 14 starts after the All-Star break. Increase usage of his elite splitter spiked his swinging-strike rated and helped him rack up a career-high 207 strikeouts. It's been a bumpy ride, but it seems like Montas has figured things out.

After his monster 2019 season (.296, 41 HRs, 112 RBI), Bregman's last two campaigns have been disappointing. Quad and hamstring issues limited him to .348 ABs last season, and he batted .270 with 12 HRs, 55 RBI and 54 runs. Uninspiring Statcast numbers suggest that another 40 HR season isn't in the cards. Bregman is a career .281 hitter, however, and he'll make worthwhile contributions in RBI and runs. Just don't pay for the Bregman of 2018-2019.

Some of us still want to think of the 28-year-old Realmuto, who was the best catcher in baseball. But he's entering his age-31 season and is likely on the downside of his career. Catchers tend to fall off precipitously after age 30, so Realmuto will have to stave off Father Time. Double-digit steals from the catcher slot are always a bonus for fantasy managers, but Realmuto is no longer a catcher for whom you should reach. The Phillies' lineup is full of holes and won't provide much support outside of Bryce Harper. However, the universal DH rule adds to Realmuto's value. He'll get more at bats and more rest for his legs. He's still a great option at catcher. Just don't reach.

Full disclosure:, I have a little man(ager) crush on India. The NL Rookie of the Year saved my season last year after some early middle infield injuries. He's a five-category option who will still be available in the eighth round or beyond. But beware: He's not going to get a lot of help in the lineup to bolster his RBI and run totals. Cincy is not going to be a good team. Without slugger Nick Castellanos and some other veteran bats the team plans on trading away, India will be a man on an island. Take that into consideration.

So far so good for Verlander, who has pitched just six innings over his last two seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery. His spring has gone as expected thus far, and he's on track for the start of the season, though he might miss the first turn as the Astros play it safe. Verlander is now 39 years old and has a ton of miles on his arm, and it's difficult to know exactly how his stuff will play after two years of not pitching competitively. But the bottom line is that the last fantasy managers saw of Verlander, he was as dominant as he has ever been, so there shouldn't be too many doubts about his performance. Given his age and his injury, it's likely the Astros will look to limit Verlander's innings a bit, but so long as he has no setbacks during the spring, draft him with confidence this year.

The way you regard Yelich depends on what type of fantasy manager you are. Do you like rolling the dice on potential superstars who can't stay upright? Or would you rather take a lesser player and know you'll get 150 games out of him? If you're in the latter category, Yelich is probably on your do-not-draft list. His upside is huge, but the now-30-year-old outfielder dealt with serious back issues last season, and back injuries have a tendency to reoccur.

Most fantasy managers expected James Karinchak to be Cleveland's closer last year, but Clase simply could not be denied. His miniscule 1.29 ERA and 0.96 WHIP were largely earned, and he ranked in the top one percent of the league in barrel rate, xERA, wOBA, and xWOBA. His cutter/slider combination is one of the best in the league, and he routinely sits at over 100 miles per hour with good command. With his raw stufdf being as good as it is, there's little reason to doubt that Clase can repeat his 2021 performance. Draft him as one of the first relievers off the board.

After years of battling injuries and ineffectiveness, Rodon blossomed last year with a 2.37 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Everything worked for the lefty, as his fastball (.199 BAA) and slider (.107 BAA) were borderline unhittable, and he ranked in the top four percent of the league in strikeout rate. He dealt with shoulder soreness and fatigue during the second half of the season, but that didn't stop the Giants from giving him a huge two-year deal. Oracle Park isn't quite the pitcher haven it once was, but it's a huge upgrade for Rodon after pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field last year. The injury risk will always be present for Rodon, but he's worth an investment if you make sure to bank on 150 innings or fewer.

If you like your closers to deliver saves with a side of anxiety, Diaz is your guy. He gets the job done, but it won't always be pretty. The Mets have tried to overhaul their team this offseason, so Diaz should be in position to save more games in 2022 than in 2021. The flamethrower is an elite strikeout option at the position. When the closer run starts, Diaz is a relatively safe top-10 choice at the position.

Cease showed a lot of growth last season, drastically increasing his strikeout rate (top four percent in MLB) while seeing a corresponding drop in both his walk-rate and HR/9. But to take the next leap, he's going to have to increase his efficiency, as he barely averaged five innings per start. There's a pretty plausible path to Cease finishing as a top-15 starter, and it largely involves him continuing to hone his command, particularly with his inconsistent curveball. If he does, and he can avoid the blow-up outings, then Cease has the makings of a fantasy ace. If he can't, then he'll likely still be a productive, albeit inconsistent, starter for your team.

Missed out on some of the big strikeout pitchers early? Nobody on your roster is projected to pass the 250 K mark? Heading into the eighth round and worried? Darvish is your answer. He's going to get swings and misses. He still has an outstanding, varied pitch repertoire. Sure, his ERA won't win you any leagues, but it won't hurt you much, and he'll pair it with a low WHIP. Darvish's issue has always been his propensity to give up the long ball. Playing half his games in San Diego's generous dimensions should limit the damage.

The 24-year-old is flying up dynasty draft boards, as his numbers project continued growth from a starter who paid off big as a 2021 sleeper selection. But if you're not in a dynasty league, don't overpay. Rogers is unlikely to match his 2.65 ERA from last season, and it's safe to expect some WHIP regression. His impressive strikeout rate is for real and there's a huge runway in front of him. If you think he's bound for a sustained breakout and have faith he can replicate or beat last season, jump on him about 75 to 80 picks in. If he's still there as you close in on pick 100, snatch him up.

Reyes crushes the ball and has the potential to become one of MLB's elite power hitters. The problem is that he hits the ball on the ground way too often. He had a 46% groundball rate in 2021 and a 36% flyball rate. That's a low flyball rate for a power hitter, and yet it's the highest of Reyes's four-year career. His 64% contact rate last year suggests there's worrisome BA downside here. Reyes doesn't steal bases. His run totals have been unimpressive and don't figure to improve with the bottom of the Cleveland batting order looking so anemic. And Reyes is only DH-eligible in most leagues. Reyes could lead the AL in homers if he makes launch-angle adjustments, but let someone else chase that dream.

Manoah was largely as advertised last year with Toronto, pitching to a 3.22 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. His fastball (.288 wOBA) and slider (.238 wOBA) were a deadly combination, though he's probably going to need to continue to develop his changeup to truly excel as a starter. With that said, Manoah is just 24 years old and already boasts two elite pitches with a solid MLB season under his belt. He may pitch in a tough division and a hitter-friendly ballpark, but given his pedigree and potential for more, he's someone to draft as a high-end No. 3 starter with little hesitation.

Witt was drafted everywhere after buzz in the spring suggested that he'd be up in the majors before long. "Before long" became never, as Witt spent the entire year in Double-A and Triple-A, admittedly showing why he's such a valued prospect. In 123 games combined between the levels, he hit 33 home runs and stole 29 bases, all with a plus average. Witt should begin the year in the majors (or be up shortly after the start of the season), and he'll almost certainly play third base, giving him dual-eligibility. He may struggle early on, but he's too talented to let it continue for long. At a barren third base position, he could be one of the most impactful players in fantasy baseball this year based on his ADP.

Pressly was his usual excellent self in the bullpen last year, pitching to a 2.25 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP with a 32.4% strikeout rate, his fourth straight season with at least a 31% mark. His fantasy value was held in check by his oddly-low save total of 26, but that was hardly his fault. The Astros as a team had only 34 saves total, which was tied with the Blue Jays for the lowest mark by a .500 team or better. Houston averaged 46.5 saves over the team's previous two full seasons, so expect them to approach that mark again and for Pressly's save total to jump by at least five or more. If you can grab a discount based on his low number last year, do so.

Let me introduce you to my second base draft target. Just 24 years old, Chisholm offers a tantalizing combination of power and speed. If he makes the necessary offseason adjustments to hit breaking pitches better, Chisholm will deliver an all-star season. He'll max out as a four category guy until he gets his average up, but for a guy ranked outside of the top 10 in nearly every set of 2B rankings, Chisholm looks like a potential draft steal. A 20/20 season is all but a lock.

Sports hernia surgery caused him to miss the 2020 season, but Haniger returned in a big way last year, posting career highs in home runs (39), RBI (100) and runs (110). There are some warning signs here, however. Haniger's strikeout rate has gone through the roof, and his on-base percentage has plummeted. His exit velocities suggest that he won't match last year's HR total. The good news is that Haniger's banner 2021 season hasn't driven his price sky-high. Still, some caution is warranted.

McClanahan had a successful 2021 season in almost every respect. His ERA, strikeouts, and walk rate were all extremely solid, and he made 26 starts including the post-season. Despite decent control, he had a bloated 1.27 WHIP, which was largely the result of batters destroying his fastball. Specifically, the pitch allowed a .308 batting average and a .378 wOBA, and considering he threw it 40.9% of the time, McClanahan's overall numbers are a testament to how good his slider and curveball were. Assuming he can get better command of his fastball and improve his performance with the pitch, there's plenty of room for growth with the young lefty.

Schwarber was really, really good in 2020. He ranked in the top 10% of the league in barrel rate, average and maximum exit velocity, hard-hit rate, walk percentage, and wOBA. He also batted a career-best .266, probably because he swung at far fewer pitches outside the strike zone than he ever had before. He'll now bat near or at the top of a strong Phillies lineup in a park that should only accentuate Schwarber's raw power. If Schwarber can hold the gains he saw last year - being more selective, hitting more line drives, etc. - then he should be in for perhaps his best season to date.

A medley of injuries limited Rendon to 58 games and 249 plate appearances in 2021. He batted over .300 in each of his last three seasons with the Nationals, but Rendon's BA slipped to .286 in the COVID-shortened 2020 season and bottomed out at a career-low .240 last year. When he's at his best, Rendon is a choosy hitter who racks up extra-base hits and makes significant contributions in every category except stolen bases. He's slightly past prime age, but we should still expect a bounce-back season from Rendon, and he's very affordable in drafts.

Chapman struggled with his control last year, walking 15.8% of the batters he faced and struggling with a 1.31 WHIP. But that was mostly window dressing on what was just another dominant season for the Yankees closer. As usual, his strikeout rate hovered at around 40% and he reached the 30-save mark for the eighth time in his last nine full seasons. Yes, he's getting up there in age and he's not nearly as dominant as he once was. But his job security remains high and his strikeouts continue to be elite for a reliever. Draft him with confidence.

Muncy had a fantastic 2021 season with 36 homers, making it his third straight full season in which he reached the 35-homer plateau. But he tore the UCL in his elbow late in the year and missed the playoffs, and the fantasy baseball world has been holding its collective breath hoping that he'll be able to be ready for Opening Day this year. All signs - and Dave Roberts's comments - point to Muncy being available, and the addition of the DH to the National League can only help his cause. But although a torn UCL isn't nearly the same injury for a position player that it is for a pitcher, Muncy will still likely see some limitations and need some time off this year. Expect his usual excellent production, but knock off 10-20 games from his usual output.

This ageless wonder will turn 42 on July 1 but continues to mash. He'll do his mashing for the Nationals this year after signing a one-year deal. Cruz belted 32 home runs last year, which was actually his lowest total for a full season since 2013. He was batting .294 for Minnesota before being traded to Tampa, where he hit only .226 the rest of the way. At his age, the decline could come quickly, but exit velocity, barrel rate and other power peripherals say he's still going strong.

A fractured wrist has changed the draft calculus on Tatis Jr., who might be out for as long as three months. It's always taken an iron stomach to draft him and deal with the injury risk. When healthy, he's a multi-category box score stuffer. His counting numbers are so orbital, he's basically a seven-category player ... when he's on the field. Now, you simply can't consider taking him within the first seven rounds.

Winker's value drops with the move to Seattle, which has one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in MLB. He should still provide a solid batting average, but aspirations of 30 HR and 90 RBI now seem far-fetched. Winker is yet another player who deals with chronic injuries. He's a guy I usually pass on and regret it at least 21 nights of the season, but pat myself on the back the rest of the year.

Hoskins traded off some walks for some additional power last year, as he consistently made harder contact than he ever had before in his career. His 91.2 MPH average exit velocity and 112.2 MPH maximum exit velocity were both career highs, and his 17% barrel rate ranked in the top 6% of baseball. The only real problem for Hoskins, aside from his .240-ish batting average, is his difficulty staying healthy. He was limited to just 107 games last year because of an abdominal injury and he missed about a third of 2020's shortened season. The talent is there - he'll hit plenty of home runs and he'll likely bat in front of Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto. Just bank on closer to 120 games rather than a full season.

Sometimes, things work out just the way fantasy managers expect them to. Cron became a prime sleeper when he signed with Colorado, and fantasy managers hoped that he could maintain his strong power numbers while letting Coors Field positively impact his batting average. That's exactly what happened, as Cron hit 28 home runs with a career-best .281 average. He also upped his walk rate significantly to 11%, which resulted in both a career-best OBP (.375) and run scored total (70). It's unclear if his gains in plate discipline are sustainable, but it's hard to find too many reasons to doubt his performance so long as he remains in Colorado. He's a fine low-end first base option or a prime target for your corner infield spot.

Walsh was outstanding in his rookie year, blasting 29 home runs and batting .277. His expected batting average (.257) and slugging percentage (.436) lagged significantly behind his actual numbers, but his 114.8 MPH maximum exit velocity was in the top six percent of MLB and suggests his power is real. Walsh couldn't hit a lick against lefties last year, as he batted just .170 against them with a .565 OPS. But, even if he loses time against them, his success against righties should be more than enough to keep him relevant. Buy him as a 30-homer bat but take at least 10 to 20 points off his batting average from last year.

If you were targeting J.T. Realmuto and he gets snapped up, take Smith with your next pick. He has the goods to become the best catcher in the game, and with the universal DH now the law of the land, Smith becomes even more valuable. Now that he'll get at-bats as a designated hitter, a 30 HR, 90 RBI season isn't out of the question. Getting that kind of elite production from your catcher spot anchors your offense and allows you all kinds of trade flexibility down the road.

Kershaw isn't the same pitcher he was at his peak, but he's still really, really good. His curveball doesn't have quite the same bite and his fastball has fallen off a bit, but his slider is one of the best in baseball. Kershaw really leaned into that pitch last year (he used it 47.6% of the time), so it's no surprise that he dealt with forearm issues at the end of the season. And injuries are now unfortunately a common thing for the veteran, as he's dealt with back, shoulder, and now elbow injuries over the past several years. He's back with the Dodgers on a one-year deal and is reportedly healthy. There's still a ton of room for profit with him, but you shouldn't count on much more than 120 innings.

You don't often see a rebound season like Votto put up last year, and it was glorious. After three years of minimal power, Votto exploded for 36 home runs and a .563 slugging percentage. His Statcast page is a joy to look at - he was among he leaders in hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, exit velocity - and all greatly improved from his last few seasons. Yes, he struck out at a career-worst clip nd his batting average isn't ever going to approach .300 again, but that's just nitpicking. The bigger worry for Votto at this point is the total lack of protection in the Reds lineup, as Cincinnati has traded the vast majority of its decent offensive pieces. But that might prevent a buying opportunity for fantasy managers if Votto's ADP slips too far.

Swanson is the type of player that you're not excited to draft but who you know will give you reliable production. At this stage of his career, he's pretty much a .250-25-10 type of bat who should give you about 165 combined runs and RBI in a strong Braves lineup. There's been nearly no change to Swanson's underlying metrics and data over the last three seasons, and though he could show some growth as he moves into his late-20s, chances are that he just is who he is. And that's not necessarily a bad thing, especially since his price is always kept in check by his lack of excitement. If you miss out on the prime shortstops, he's a fine consolation prize late in drafts.

Bell had a horrid .464 OPS in April, likely because his timing was off after missing time because of a COVID-19 diagnosis. But once he found his footing, he was everything that Nationals hoped he would be. He batted .277 with an .887 OPS in the second half, and even played plenty of outfield so Washington could keep his bat in the lineup even with Ryan Zimmerman playing well. His walk percentage and strikeout rate largely returned to their pre-2020 levels, and he got better and better as the season went along. With Zimmerman now retired and the DH in the National League, Bell's bat should remain in the lineup nearly every day, and the presence of Juan Soto and Nelson Cruz should offer him plenty of RBI opportunities. He's not a fantasy superstar, but he's a capable starter at first base for your fantasy team.

The last thing you want to do is pass on a former MVP who can be had in the middle rounds because his draft stock is plummeting. The second-to-last-thing you want to do is grab a player hoping for a bounce-back season and bang your head on a desk every night as he continues his affair with the Mendoza line. What if last year's crater season was an aberration? Worse, what if it wasn't? Bellinger is still only 26, but he won't have 1B eligibility in most formats, leaving him eligible for OF only. Oh, heck, if he's still there in the ninth or 10th round, take a chance. And find a bottle of Advil.

Mountcastle fully arrived in his age-24 season, shaking off a slow start to finish with 33 HR, 89 RBI, 77 runs and a reasonable .255 batting average. His .333 BA in the abbreviated 2020 season was a mirage, but Mountcastle's power is legit, with a .232 ISO in 2021 and home runs on 20% of his flyballs. There's a lot of swing-and-miss to Mountcastle's game, which could make him a BA risk, and he won't steal many bases. But the power profile is enticing, and it's a nice bonus that Mountcastle has dual eligibility as an outfielder and first baseman.

Jansen signed a one-year deal with the Braves and will slide right into the cloer's role. There is a lot of mileage on his arm, but he had a strong rebound season last year, dropping his ERA to a 2.22 and his WHIP to 1.04, all while tallying 38 saves for the Dodgers. After losing velocity for several seasons, Jansen got it back last year, averaging 92.5 MPH with his cutter, which resulted in just a .176 batting average against, his best since 2016. Assuming he can sustain his gains, he should again be a top reliever, and his hefty contract should at least give him a decent leash in the ninth inning. He's plenty capable of being your anchor reliever.

Bassitt's success feels uncomfortable - he doesn't have a ton of velocity or much of a secondary pitch beyond his sinker. But year in and year out, he offers an ERA and WHIP that help fantasy managers. His 25% strikeout rate last year was a career-best, and his deep arsenal helps to keep hitters off balance. He'll lose out on some park value with the move from Oakland to New York, but chances are he will improve on his meager win totals from the last few years. There's no ceiling ith Bassitt, but there's an extremely high floor, so sticking him in the back-end of your rotation is a winning move.

There's a lot to like here. The biggest draws are speed and multi-position (OF/2B) eligibility. Edman stole 30 bases last year, tying for fourth in MLB. Statcast says he's in the 92nd percentile for sprint speed. There's a little bit of power here, too. Edman hit only 11 HRs last year but clubbed 41 doubles. Edman has a .272 batting average over three seasons, and there could be room for growth there. His contact rate improved to 85% last year, and he sprays hits to both sides of the diamond. Edman doesn't take many walks, but that's a minor nit to pick.

Cronenworth quietly had a very solid season for the Padres, totaling 21 home runs and exactly an .800 OPS. He's not an exciting player - he doesn't have a ton of power or speed and his batting average won't wow you. But he'll bat second for the Padres this year and so you can expect him to challenge the 94 runs scored he totaled last season. He also struck out just 14% of the time last year, which ranked in the top 10% in MLB, so he's unlikely to endure prolonged slumps, and consistent production goes further in today's fantasy landscape than it used to. Add to that his multi-position eligibility and Cronenworth makes an ideal part of any fantasy team, particularly one with daily lineup changes.

Lopez was limited to 102.2 innings last year as he (again) dealt with a shoulder injury. But when he did pitch, he was excellent. A 3.07 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and a 27.5% strikeout rate all added plus value to fantasy rosters. Lopez primarily relies on a fastball/changeup combination, and he'll probably need to take the next step with either his curveball or cutter to take the next step. But his current production is plenty good enough, and he's an ideal third starter for your fantasy team.

If ever a player needed a trade, it was Adames. In his career, he has batted just .217 with a .616 OPS in Tropicana Field. And he was particularly dreadful with the Rays last year, slashing .197/.254/.371. He was an entirely different player after his trade to the Brewers, hitting 20 home runs in 99 games, with nearly a .900 OPS. He's probably due for some regression, as he outperformed his expected batting average and slugging percentage pretty significantly last season. But even if you knock off 20% of what we saw him do with the Brewers last season, he'd still be a startable option in fantasy. He's unlikely to take the leap into stardom, but he can and should certainly maintain the leap he took last year into relevance.

Romano wasn't always used as a traditional closer last year, but he firmly established himself as Toronto's best reliever and wound up with 23 saves. Romano sits at 97 MPH with his fastball and it's just been an absolutely dominant pitch over the last two seasons, particularly when combined with his above-average slider. He's a reliever with a limited track record which means his volatility is high. But there are few closing situations where fantasy managers can feel confident about who is going to get the ball in the ninth inning - Toronto's is one of them, and that means Romano should be considered a top-10 reliever.

If Castillo is on your target list, make sure to buy a big bottle of Tums. By the end of the season, you'll probably be happy with your decision, to roster him, but there will be long stretches of the season where you'll be driven to the breaking point while following Castillo's starts on Stat Tracker. He's a notoriously slow starter, so be prepared for a bumpy ride until June. I've ridden the Reds ace through multiple tumultuous seasons, and I can't do it again. If you have a stronger constitution than I do, know that Castillo has SP1 stuff and will probably be worth it over the long haul.

Manaea was traded to the Padres on the eve of the season, and it's a bit of a mixed bag for his value. His win potential certainly improves given the quality of the offense behind him now, but he'll see a downgrade in home park. Putting aside, the trade, Manaea was really inconsistent last year, and had just one month where his ERA was within two runs of the previous month. There were some overall gains, including a fastball that randomly found almost two miles of velocity. But in the end, Manaea just sort of is what he is. He doesn't have the secondary stuff to be a big strikeout pitcher, and his best-case scenario, absent a massively lucky season, is a mid-3.00 ERA with a WHIP that doesn't hurt you. Draft him for the back end of your rotation but do not expect a great leap.

Snell is an every-other-year pitcher. Over his six year career, his ERA has been good in even years (averaging 2.89) and pedestrian in odd years (4.17). Is that scientific? No, of course not, but you're playing a game based on other people playing a game. Let's have some leeway here. Well, friends, it's an even year. So go ahead and make Snell your SP3.

Rodriguez had an awful 2021 season, but his 4.74 ERA was backed up by a 3.32 FIP and 3.50 xERA. His walk percentage and strikeout rate were actually career bests, and he made at least 31 starts for the second consecutive season. Really, it was just a lot of bad luck for Rodriguez, as his .363 BABIP against and 68.9% LOB %, both career-worsts, showed. He'll face an easier slate of lineups now that he's with Detroit, but his ceiling is fairly low given that he's really got just one truly reliable pitch in his fastball. He could theoretically finally beat his career best 3.81 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, but there's just not enough upside for him to be anything but a back-end-of-the-rotation type of arm.

Turner is entering his age-37 season and saw some mild decline last year, but he also tied his career-high with 151 games played and popped 27 home runs. His walk and strikeout rates largely held, as did his quality of contact. With the addition of the DH in the National League, and with the Dodgers only adding to their elite lineup, Turner should have enough juice left in the tank to put together another productive season. Considering the weakness of the third base position this year, Turner makes an excellent mid-round target with a mitigated health risk in light of the DH.

On the one hand, Meadows largely bounced back from the horror story that was the abbreviated 2020 season. His strikeout rate normalized, his power returned, and his playing time stabilized. The glaring exception was that he could not correct his sudden struggles against lefties. In 2019, Meadows slashed .275/.316/.521 against southpaws. Last year, he slashed just .198/.270/.293 against them. Even if Meadows's overall numbers are passable, it seems unlikely that a team like the Rays are going to let a player who is merely an average defender continue to keep an everyday job when he's virtually useless against left-handed throwers. That would still leave Meadows on the strong side of a platoon, but if he does begin to sit more regularly, his counting stats will take a hit, and fantasy managers should be aware of that before they select him in their drafts.

Valdez fractured his ring finger just before the start of the season and although there were rumors he could miss the entire season, he wound up making 22 starts and throwing 134 2/3 innings. He lost some of the gains he had made with his control, but he induced ground balls at a 70.3% clip, an absurd rate. Valdez has one great pitch - his curveball - and his value is highly dependent on the quality of his defense. So the chances of him taking a great leap are minimal. But what he provides is plenty good enough to be a mid-tier starter for your fantasy team.

It always feels like Eovaldi should be better given how hard he throws and how good his control is, but it's always been difficult for him to put everything together. But now that he's enjoyed a rare run of health and largely ditched his underwhelming cutter, he's settled into a usable starter that you can draft with relative confidence. He's never going to be a star - his fastball is just too hittable and he pitches in a division with loaded lineups - but you could do far worse than a 3.75 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, which Eovaldi has given fantasy managers for two straight seasons. Expect a third in 2022.

After establishing himself as one of MLB's premier innings-eaters in 2019 and 2020, Lynn spent time on IL in 2021 with back and knee problems but was still highly effective, posting a career-best 2.69 ERA. There are a few minor concerns, however. The BABIPs against him the last two years have been .243 and .265. (For his career, it's .301.) Lynn's flyball rate has been on the rise the last two years, which could be a problem since the White Sox play in a bandbox. We might not see another sub-.300 ERA again, but we're likely to see more innings than bad, and Lynn is a good bet to give you a lot of innings. He led MLB in batters faced in 2019 and tied for the league lead in 2020.

Grisham was . . . fine last year. His 15 homers and 13 steals contributed, particularly given that he missed time with injury. But there just wasn't much to get excited about. There's probably more to be had in the stolen base department, as Grisham ranks in the 91st percentile in sprint speed. And he should bat atop the lineup this year with Fernando Tatis set to miss time. But your best-case scenario is a 20-15 line with a batting average that hurts. That's a startable player in fantasy, but not one you should reach for in drafts.

Kimbrel bounced back in a huge way last season, cutting his walk rate to 9.8%, his lowest since 2017. He was vintage Kimbrel, piling up the strikeouts and saves until a mid-season trade to the White Sox where he became the setup man to Liam Hendriks. He was slated to be a late-round pick with Chicago, but with the trade to the Dodgers, he immediately becomes a top-5 closer. Expect 35-plus saves and elite ratios.

Mahle is your quintessential fantasy rotation filler. His ERA (3.75) and WHIP (1.23) won't really hurt you and he'll throw enough innings, but because he's primarily a fastball pitcher with little else in his arsenal, there's so little upside. That's especially true because he pitches in a hitter-friendly environment and for a team that has traded nearly every decent offensive piece. That means wins should be hard to come by and with Mahle's upside cap, make sure not to draft him too early.

It should tell you all you need to know about Gallo that he hit 38 home runs and scored 90 runs last season and baseball fans and fantasy players view his year as a disaster. Gallo basically did what he always did - he struck out a ton (34.6%), walked more than anyone not named Juan Soto (18%) and left the yard often. His sub-.200 batting average is just basically what Gallo is going to bring to the table unless he changes his approach or gets lucky, though the fact that he hit ground balls at an elevated clip didn't help much. He'll still be batting in the middle of a strong Yankees lineup, so if you can deal with the batting average hit, draft him for the homers and runs scored production.

Gallegos hasn't been named the closer and both the coaching staff and front office have gone out of their way to avoid annointing him the ninth-inning man. But considering his success the past two years and Alex Reyes's injury, there seems to be little doubt. Gallegos has everything you want in a closer - strong strikeout numbers, good command, and two elite pitches with his fastball and slider. You'll need to drop him below some of the more established closers because of the current uncertainty, but if you bet on him to be the primary closing option for St. Louis, you'll almost certainly be correct.

Gurriel cut his strikeout rate to a career-best 18.9%, but that's pretty much where the good news ends. His quality of contact dropped significantly (at least in some part due to a knee injury he played through), resulting in a sharp downturn in both his home runs and slugging percentage. Playing for a ridiculously strong Toronto offense will keep his counting stats relatively afloat, and he may bat higher in the order with Marcus Semien in Texas now. And he's entering his age-28 season so perhaps there's a power bump coming. But Gurriel looks much more like a player who you draft because he won't hurt you, not because he'll help you a ton.

Garcia had an outstanding year with Milwaukee, hitting 29 home runs and driving in 86 in just 135 games. As usual, he showed elite maximum exit velocity, continuing his run of ranking in the top seven percent of MLB in that category since it began being tracked. He signed a four-year deal with Miami and, given the park dimensions and lack of lineup protection, that's obviously not the best place for him to end up. But the bottom line is that a 25-10 season is very much in reach, and he's a fine later-round selection who can fill in as a fourth outfielder.

We've got a "best shape of his life" alert with Moncada, who has been vocal about his offseason training habits. Talk of 30 stolen bases have leaked out and considering the weakness of the third base position, Moncada's ADP has slowly begun to rise. But he's never stolen more than 12 bases in a season and is in the 67th percentile for sprint speed. Stolen bases are the least of Moncada's problems anyway, as he's hit just 20 homers and batted .253 combined over the last two seasons (196 games). His walk rate is still elite and there should be a ton of run and RBI opportunities again in the Chicago lineup. But until we actually see Moncada get back to the 2019 version of himself, don't bother reaching for him.

Renfroe has always had power but put it all together last year for Boston and became one of their most reliable and dependable bats.He cut his strikeout rate to just 22.7% and although he was still much better against lefties, he made major gains against righties such that he went far beyond potentially being placed in a platoon situation. Moving to the Brewers can only help his power, so bank on 30 home runs with helpful counting stats everywhere but steals.

Rizzo re-signed with the Yankees this offseason, and that's pretty much as good a landing spot as fantasy managers could have hoped for. His counting stats will benefit with the strong lineup and short porch in right, and he still has productive seasons ahead of him. But Rizzo is a different player now than he was in his heyday, and the days of 30 home runs, double-digit steals, or batting averages in the high .200s are over. He can be useful for fantasy managers, but he's a low-end first baseman or decent corner infielder in mixed leagues at this point in his career. Nothing more.

Taylor had an excellent season, hitting 20 homers and stealing 13 bases while playing all over the diamond as usual. The Dodgers rewarded him with a four-year, $60 million deal, which pretty much guarantees that he'll find his way into the lineup nearly every day. He won't wow you in any category but given his position flexibility and placement in the best lineup in baseball, Taylor is an ideal player for any fantasy team who should offer similar numbers to last year.

Gray can be maddening at time with his inconsistency. When his breaking stuff is on and getting strikes, he's borderline unhittable. When it's not, things often get ugly, and there's little rhyme or reason to which Gray you're going to see on any given day. His home-run rate spiked last year and a move to Minnesota should help get that under control. And he started throwing a cutter last year that had a lot of success, and if he continues to develop it, it could be a game-changer. But in the end, Gray has essentially put it all together just once in his last six seasons, so keep your expectations in check.

Chapman get a massive upgrade moving from Oakland to Toronto, both in terms of home park and surrounding lineup. He's coming off an incredible disappointing year in which he hit only .210, but it's worth remembering that he had major surgery the prior offseason. As we saw with Buster Posey, players often take a full season to recover, so it's a good bet that you can write Chapman's 2021 off to his recovery. Even so, he hit 27 home runs last year, so if he can just get his strikeout rate back down to the 23% range he had shown in his career rather than the 33% range he's had the last two seasons, he could be in for a monstrous year.

Anderson wasn't as dominant last year as he was in his six-start stretch in 2020, but you shouldn't have expected him to be. What he gave fantasy managers was still plenty useful, with a mid-3.00 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He's going to need to continue to develop his curveball more to be able to take the next step in terms of fantasy pitchers, and he might have trouble taking a step forward regardless given how much the NL East offenses have improved. But there's little risk that he'll regress significantly at this stage, so your worst case scenario should be a solid mid-tier starter.

LeMahieu seems like the poster child for the effect of the juiced ball. After drastically increasing his home run power over the previous few seasons, he hit just 10 home runs last year and his slugging percentage dropped to .362. LeMahieu had offseason surgery to repair a hernia, so perhaps his injury was bothering him longer than he let on and is responsible for his down year. But it's equally possible that at 33 years old, and without the juiced ball, LeMahieu just isn't as valuable a fantasy commodity as he used to be. Chances are, at the very least, that the days of a .300-plus batting average are gone, and now with likely low-teens home run potential, LeMahieu is more of a late-round pick whose main value is his position flexibility.

Verdugo is a reliable option for batting average, as he's batted at least .289 in three straight seasons. He doesn't have a ton of pop or speed, though he'll at least chip in with home runs and steals, and because he'll bat near the top of the Red Sox lineup, should be an asset in runs scored. Think of a poor man's version of Michael Brantley in his prime and that's what Verdugo will give you, and that's plenty valuable for fantasy.

Carlson rebounded from a disastrous 2020 season to put up a respectable .266/.343/.437 line with 18 home runs last year. But the dreams of fantasy superstardom after his 2019 minor-league season (26 homers, 20 steals) have been put on hold, as he seems to have little interest in stealing bases in the majors (three total in two seasons), and his hard-hit rate was in the bottom nine percent of the league last year. His numbers and underlying metrics suggest that he's a slightly above-average MLB player, though it's worth remembering that he's just 23 years old and there's certainly potential for more. Drafting Carlson as a fourth outfielder with upside for more is the right approach, as he should bring a fairly solid floor with potential for a high ceiling if everything comes together.

Contreras isn't quite the fantasy superstar that he looked like he might be when he broke in, but he's still an excellent option at a weak position. He's hit at least 21 homers in three of his last four full seasons and chips in roughly 120 combined runs and RBI. That doesn't sound like much, particularly with a batting average that seems likely to hover at around .240 at this stage in his career, but it's more than enough for a catcher. He should see some extra at-bats this year with the DH in the National League, and that should only help his value.

Kelenic's season was shaping up to be an all-time disaster for a prospect, but a fairly strong final month, during which he hit seven homers and slashed .248/.331/.524, salvaged things a bit. He still batted just .180 on the year and struck out 28.1% of the time, but there's reason to believe he can put his year in the rear view mirror and start fresh. Kelenic has an advanced approach, and could pretty easily put up a 20-20 season without batting an eye if everything breaks right. With a stronger Mariners lineup batting behind him, Kelenic should be someone to target in fantasy drafts given his potential and strong close to the 2021 season.

The Mets' ace is a legit superstar ... when he plays. But now deGrom, who was already coming off injuries to his shoulder and UCL, is being shut down until at least the end of April with a scapular injury. If he returns to something close to full health at some point, he'll deliver a sub 2.50 ERA with piles of strikeouts and a miniscule WHIP. But it's probably wishful thinking to project deGrom for more than 100 innings in 2022.

Gilbert pitched better than his 4.68 ERA, and became a fairly reliable starter by the end of the season. He's got two major assets - an elite fastball that sits at about 95 MPH and outstanding command. His home park helps, too, but he'll need to continue to develop a second pitch (his slider is good but inconsistent) if he wants to take a step forward. He's an ideal back-end-of-the-rotation arm for your fantasy team - he'll give you innings and strikeouts and rarely get crushed, but things will need to break right for him to finish with under a 3.80 ERA.

Spoiler alert with Donaldson - he's going to hit the ball really, really hard, he's going to walk a ton, andhe' going to miss time with an injury or two, probably involving his calf. The move to the Yankees can only help his fantasy outlook but, as with the Twins, the Yankees' DH spot will be filled most days, so Donaldson will need to play the field. His quality of contact has remained remarkably consistent despite his advanced age, so even in his age-36 season, fantasy managers shouldn't worry much about a decline. Book the production when he plays, but have a fill-in ready.

Hayes had major buzz heading into 2021 after he batted .376 with a 1.124 OPS in 24 games in 2020. But his season went south nearly from the start, after he missed significant time with a wrist injury and continued to battle hand and wrist issues even after he returned. His hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and barrel percentage all dropped significantly, and it's fair to write if fantasy managers want to write all that off to his injury issues. But it's equally fair to acknowledge that Hayes's strong 2020 season was out of line with his minor-league career, and that fantasy managers were putting way too much stock into an incredibly small sample. The good news is that, unlike last year, fantasy managers won't need to pay a high price for Hayes, and in the wasteland (in terms of fantasy production) that is the third base position, Hayes makes a passable option at the hot corner in deeper leagues. Just make sure you draft some depth behind him in case he struggles again.

Grandal played in only 93 games last year because of a knee injury but still hit 23 home runs with 122 combined runs and RBI. His walk rate (23.2%) was comically high, but it obviously didn't impact any of his other numbers, and his strikeout rate was the lowest it has been in years. Don't extrapolate his home run numbers - he's not going to his 40 - but mid-20s with solid runs and RBI totals are in the bank. That's gold for a catcher.

Soler's 48-homer season isn't ever going to repeat itself, but he doesn't need it to in order to provide fantasy value. He popped 27 homers last year and although his batting average has been in the .220s each of the last two years, his expected batting average has been closer to the high .240s. Now with the Marlins, he'll need every bit of hard contact he can get, but he should benefit from the NL adopting the DH. Soler isn't and won't be a star, but he's a useful fourth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Garcia had a fine 2021 season, as both his cutter (.175 BAA) and slider (.133 BAA) were dominant, at least until the end of the year and playoffs. His upside is capped just a bit because his fastball is so mediocre, so he really needs to lean in to both of those other pitches and have them both working to be effective. That's what we saw most of last year, so another season of a mid-3.00 ERA and a passable WHIP may certainly be in the cards. Let's just hope the mini-swoon we saw over the final month of the season (4.67 ERA) was a blip and not a sign of things to come.

Varsho has bounced around from catcher to the outfield so far in his major league career, but he is penned in as the everyday center fielder in 2022. His bat is solid, not necessarily elite, and if he was only outfield eligible, he'd probably be a fifth outfielder or high-end bench piece. But his projected 15-10 line plays incredibly well at catcher, where he retains eligibility, and he'll likely bat in the middle of the lineup which should help buoy his counting stats, even in Arizona's lineup. He's a rock solid starting catcher for fantasy purposes, but don't play to play him in the outfield.

There is no doubting Kopech's talent - he has an outstanding fastball and slider with a decent changeup - but it's more his role. He's had a tortured path to success, including undergoing Tommy John surgery and opting out of the 2020 season. But he was excellent last year, mostly in relief, and showed that he has the stuff to succeed in the majors. His role in 2022 is a bit undefined as of now, as the White Sox appear to want him in the rotation but state that he is behind the other starters. Given that he's thrown just 69.1 innings over the last two years, you'd be wise to pencil him in for about 130 innings and 20-25 starts. So long as you draft depth behind him, he should be a major asset this year.

Mancini was one of the best baseball stories of 2021 as he returned from missing the 2020 season due to cancer to put up a productive year. He dipped significantly from his outstanding 2019 numbers (.291/.364/.535), but his underlying metrics largely held firm. The truth is that Mancini was just a bit lucky in 2019, as he outperformed his expected numbers in nearly every category, and was comparably unlucky in 2021, underperforming those same numbers by similar amounts. His true version likely lies somewhere in between, and that's not a bad thing. Expect an improvement from most of his numbers last year, but bank on 25 homers, rather than the 34 he totaled in 2019, particularly with the new dimensions in left field in Camden Yards.

Gallen took a major step back last year, but it's tough not to blame the injuries. He missed time with forearm, elbow, and hamstring injuries and the quality of nearly every one of his pitches declined. He looked like a prime bounce-back candidate, but he's already behind schedule because of bursitis in his shoulder. If you believe that Gallen's decline last year was due to his injuries and that he won't miss much time this year, then he should be drafted as a low-end No. 2 starter. When he's right, his fastball, changeup, and curveball are all outstanding, and he can pile on the strikeouts with ease. But you'd be foolish not to acknowledge the injury risks, and if you do draft Gallen, make sure you have a deep staff behind him.

McMahon showed that his poor performance during the shortened 2020 season was an aberration, as his 2021 statline was nearly identical to the one he put up in 2019. His batting average (.254), OBP (.331) and slugging percentage (.449) were all within four points of his 2019 mark and his counting stats were similarly comparable. There's a chance that McMahon makes some gains this season - he's entering his "magical" age-27 season and he cut his strikeout rate to 24.7% last year. But, given how closely his last two full seasons have mirrored one another, you can likely bank on a .250-ish average, 24 home runs, 145 combined runs and RBI, and five steals. Draft him with those numbers in mind.

Suzuki signed with the Cubs this offseason, and will come over from the Hiroshima Toyo Carp after dominating last year in Japan. He hit 38 home runs and had a 1.073 OPS, and he has a career .315 batting average and .985 OPS in the NPS. Projecting players coming over from Japan is fraught with difficulties, but the general consensus is that Suzuki has 30-homer power with the ability to hit for average and steal double-digit bases. Whether that manifests itself in his first year remains to be seen, but there are few players with similar upside going at his ADP. Draft him as a fourth outfielder, but hope he plays like a second or third option.

Forget about ever seeing Torres come close to the 38 home runs he hit in 2019. His power has come crashing back down to earth over the past two years, along with his batting average. He did rebound a bit in the second half, hitting .289 with six home runs and eight steals, but when those are the numbers that force you to have hope for his fantasy production, things aren't in great shape. He'll still bat in an outstanding lineup so his counting stats should have somewhat of a floor, but he's now an option you settle for, rather than target.

Rosario re-signed with the Braves after coming over mid-season last year from Clevelan. He's still a productive MLB player but it's unclear if he can recapture the form that made him one of the more underrated assets in fantasy. He's no longer out-performing his expected batting average and he's never hit the ball particularly hard, so the 32 home runs we saw back in 2019 are probably never coming back. But he'll likely approach a 20-10 season in Atlanta and stick in the lineup every day with the addition of the DH in the National League. You could do worse as your last outfielder in a mixed league.

Other than an awful May, during which he battled through a wrist injury and hit just .190, France had an outstanding 2021 season. He batted .291 overall and struck out just 16.3% of the time, all while putting up passable counting stats. There's a hard cap on France's value - he doesn't have a ton of power, he has no speed, and his expected stats say that he's due for a batting average correction. But absent an injury, there's pretty much no chance of the bottom dropping out, and he makes an ideal corner infielder who you can leave in your lineup without much concern.

Ozuna missed the majority of the season after he was arrested on charges of aggravated assault by strangulation and battery last year. He's 31 years old now and his hard hit rate and average exit velocity declined sharply last year, along with his home run percentage and batting average. It's not clear if his numbers last year were just a blip or the start of a steep decline, but you shouldn't be relying on him as a starter for now.

Garcia came out of absolutely nowhere last season to become one of just five players to hit at least 31 home runs and steal at least 16 bases. His success largely came early in the season, as he blasted 11 home runs in May with a .312 batting average before, as most fantasy managers expected, pitchers adjusted. The adjustment hit Garcia hard, as he slashed just .211/.256/.370 in the second half, though he stole seven bases over the final month of the season to cushion the blow. The issue for Garcia is the same that plagues most largely unknown hitters who put up huge hot streaks - he lacks plate discipline. His strikeout rate (31.2%) and walk rate (5.1%) were both in the bottom six percent of MLB, and both were due largely to the fact that he simply swings too much at pitches outside of the zone (39.7 O-Swing%, ninth-worst in the league). The Rangers have a much-improved lineup and perhaps Garcia will improve in his second year, but unless he drastically changes his approach, his numbers are going to have a hard cap on them.

Benintendi was the classic "needs a change of scenery" player and got relatively back on track with the Royals. He looked almost identical to the disappointing but absolutely usable version of himself that he showed in 2019, and his underlying rates were nearly identical. He did walk at a career-worst rate but he also got his strikeout rate down under control, and had he avoided injury, he surely would have put up a 20-10 season. There's every reason to expct him to be able to do that again, but expect his other counting stats to remain mediocre with Kansas City's lineup.

Gurriel returned to being the player he was prior to 2019's massive power outburst - a player who will help you in batting average and hit 15-20 homers with counting stats helped by batting in a strong Houston lineup. He should easily do that again this year, despite entering his age-38 season. Gurriel doesn't strike out much, but he just doesn't offer the qualitty of contact necessary to be a fantasy asset absent an aberration like his 2019 season. Book the usual - a near .300 average with 15 home runs - and stick him in your corner infield spot in deeper leagues. Just give up dreams of more.

Clevinger is on track to be ready for Opening Day after missing all of 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. That was Clevinger's second such surgery so there's certainly reason for long-term concern, but for just this year, he's someone to buy. He was a top flight fantasy starter for the last several years before his injury, and has a wipeout slider to go along with his fastball. His control has never been elite and there will probably be a fairly hard innings cap on him coming off of surgery, but on an inning-by-inning basis, he should provide elite production if healthy.

Kirilloff had a poor 2021 season, ultimately succumbing to wrist surgery to fix an injury that has reportedly bothered him off and on for a few years at this point. Long-term, there's plenty of reason for optimism given his pedigree and strong minor league numbers. But for this year, he's more of a middling outfield filler. His quality of contact and home park aren't favorable enough to lead to a major outburst in power, and his surrounding lineup isn't strong enough to offer a favorable environment for counting stats. Kirilloff probably won't hurt you in batting average and he'll hit about 20 home runs, but players like that are a dime a dozen in redraft leagues. Take him late as a filler, but still view him as a target in keeper and dynasty formats.

Grossman came out of nowhere to put up a 20-20 line in his age-31 season. And by "out of nowhere," I mean that his previous season-high in homers was 11 and his previous high in steals was nine. Everything suggests that Grossman sold out a bit for power, as he greatly increased both his launch angle and fly ball rate (46.2%). If he does that again, he can probably approach 20 homers for a second straight season, but considering his mediocre sprint speed (68th percentile), it would be surprising if he reached 20 steals. Take about 5-7 off your projections for both numbers and you probably won't be disappointed.

Rogers should regain the closer's role this year and likely have it all to himself for Minnesota. Other than being a lefty, he's got a pretty typical closer makeup. His strikeout rate sits above 30% most years, his walk rate remains below 5%, and his sinker sits at about 95 MPH. After signing Carlos Correa, the Twins may be more competitive than you think, so don't discount Rogers as a second tier closer who could top 25 or even 30 saves if everything breaks right.

Means had a fine overall season with a 3.62 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, the latter number helped by the fact that he walked just 4.4% of batters, which ranked in the top four percent of baseball. If you put Means on another team, his ADP would probably rise 20 or 30 spots. He has elite control as mentioned, and an above-average fastball, changeup, and curveball. But with Baltimore, he just won't win many games (he has eight wins over his last 36 starts) and his always awful home run rate likely won't improve that much, though it may stabilize at least a little with the new dimensions in Camden Yards. Means's expected stats were worse than his actual numbers last year, so some ERA regression may be due. But he's got upside, particularly if he is traded out of Baltimore, and his floor should be pretty stable regardless.

Baddoo wasn't expected to contribute much in the majors last year, but he came on strong and ultimately played in 124 games, hitting 13 home runs and stealing 18 bases while batting .259. The speed is legtimate, as he ranked in the 91st percentile in sprint speed last season, but he's going to significantly improve on his .523 OPS against lefties if he's going to find success this year. Baddoo should begin the year batting leadoff in front of an improved Tigers lineup, so if he can just maintain his performance against righties and improve against lefties somewhat, a 20-20 season coul be in the cards. If not, then he'll likely bat in the lower third of the order and lose much of his value.

If you saw 39 saves coming from Melancon last year, you're a fibber. He emerged from a crowded San Diego bullpen to become one of the most reliable closing options in the game. Yes, he's old for a closer and no, his strikeout numbers won't help you. But he'll be the undisputed closer for the Diamondbacks this year, and job security is more than half the battle. You have to knock a ton of saves off his projections given that he'll be pitching for a poor Arizona team, but 25-30 should be in the cards, and the guy did have a 2.23 ERA last season. His contract should keep him in Arizona for the full year, so grit your teeth and draft him as a fairly reliable option in the bullpen.

Sale returned from Tommy John surgery last year and mostly looked like his old self. His velocity was close to pre-surgery levels, and though his strikeout rate dropped a smidge, he was basically the same ace he's always been. A .358 BABIP against Sale last year suggests he got unlucky, yet he still posted a 3.16 ERA. Health is really the only concern for Sale, who was an All-Star for seven straight seasons from 2012 to 2018. Unfortunately, he's already hurt. A stress fracture in his rib cage will cause him to miss the start of the regular season.

There was a lot of good with Happ's 2021 season. He reached a career-high in home runs, runs scored, and stolen bases, and he kept his walk rate in the double digits. But he also batted a career worst .226 and ranked in the bottom nine percent of the league with a 29.2% strikeout rate. Happ should be a starter for the Cubs, of course, but with the addition of Seiya Suzuki and with Clint Frazier on board, Chicago may be a little less patient with his slumps. Make sure you're taken care of in batting average and have depth if you draft Happ, because with his production come some pretty glaring risks.

Voit played in just 68 games last year after battling through various injuries, and his overall game suffered. He hit just 11 home runs and batted .239, while seeing his strikeout rate jump to a career-worst 30.7%. He still made solid contact overall, upping his hard-hit rate to 52.2% and his barrel rate to 15.8%, but none of that was enough to overcome the increase in whiffs. He'll get a fresh start in San Diego, where he'll likely be the everyday DH unless the team trades Eric Hosmer. Once Fernando Tatis Jr. returns, there should be RBI opportunities aplenty, but even until then, Voit should provide plenty of power. If he can cut his strikeout rate back down to his career levels and see a corresponding increase in batting average, he should be a fantasy asset.

As he has often in his career, Belt missed time with various injuries last year, including a fractured thumb. But he crushed his career-high in home runs with 29, and in just 97 games. He's back with the Giants after accepting a qualifying offer and even with last year's numbers and the change in park factors in recent years, San Francisco was hardly the best place for Belt to end up. You can't deny the production last year and there really wasn't much different about what Belt did to make you think it's unsustainable. But at 34 years old, expecting an improvement in health is likely a bad idea. Draft him with 25 homers in mind, and anything else is gravy.

Duvall had the quietest 38-homer season in recent memory, which happens when a bulk of it takes place in Miami. He also led the National League in RBI and was one of the leaders in max exit velocity. But he also batted just .228 and struck out 31.4% of the time. Duvall is now 33 years old so expecting a rebound in batting average or strikeout rate is probably wishful thinking. But if it's power you crave, then Duvall should have you covered, particularly with playing his home game in Atlanta's hitter-friendly Truist Park.

Knebel was labeled as the tentative closer by Joe Girardi early in the spring, and he's done nothing to lose the job since. He rebounded from a terrible 2020 season to put up a 2.45 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with the Dodgers last year, and his fastball velocity sat at a robust 96.3 mile per hour. He's already throwing harder than that this spring, and combined with his outstanding curveball, his fastball can perform at an elite level. Knebel has closing experience from his days with Milwaukee, so as long as he can avoid injury, there's every reason to expect him to hold the role all year long. He could easily end up as a top-5 closer if everything breaks right.

Segura had a solid bounce-back season after 2020's blip, as his 14 home runs were the most he had hit since 2016. A 15-10 season is probably his ceiling at this point in his career, but he hasn't slipped from his .285 career batting average and he continues to avoid strikeouts with the best of them. With the addition of Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber, the Philadelphia lineup is as strong as it has been in years, and that should bolster Segura's counting stats. He's an option once you miss out on the top middle infielders.

Sandoval didn't get much respect from fantasy managers despite a solid year last season, probably for two reasons. The first is that his control is middling (9.9% walk rate), which leads to an inflated WHIP. The second is that his fastball is just mediocre, and it's really difficult to trust a pitcher who doesn't want to throw that pitch. But all that ignores that he has a glorious changeup and a passable slider, which he uses to great effect. He ended his season with a stress fracture in his back but he's reportedly fully recovered now. There's some risk with him but, chances are, his ADP won't reflect his upside. Take a chance on him, but make sure to draft some other "boring" and safe options.

Stroman had some of the best surface numbers of his career with a 3.02 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, as a stronger Mets infield defense helped to normalize his BABIP against just a bit. But even though he had the highest strikeout rate of his career, the new splitter he introduced didn't generate enough whiffs to make a difference. He remained an overall negative in the category (7.94/9), and he'll now pitch for a mediocre Cubs team in 2022. Stroman won't hurt you, and drafting a pitcher with little downside can be a plus if you have a deep rotation. But at this point in his career, there's equally little upside, so whether you take the shot on him depends entirely on how the rest of your staff looks.

Hays finally made good on his prospect pedigree, hitting 22 home runs and topping 140 combined runs and RBI. It wasn't perfect - he walked only 5.3% of the time and his hard-hit rate and exit velocity were mediocre. But he had a strong close to th season with 12 home runs and 35 RBI over the final two months of the season. Just 26 years old, there's plenty of room for growth, though the new dimensions in Camden Yards may keep his power in check a bit. Buy him at his 2021 numbers and understand there's plenty of room for growth.

You don't often see 34-year-old shortstops putting up massive career years, but that's exactly what we saw from Crawford in 2021. He set career bests in each of the five rotisserie categories, while beating his averages in strikeout and walk percentage. Crawford's quality of contact improved a bit, but not enough to make you think he's suddenly a completely different player than he had been his whole career. Don't bet on a repeat performance, but don't completely ignore Crawford in your drafts, as many managers likely will. The San Francisco offense is strong, and the park is less pitcher-friendly than it used to be. Crawford is more than capable of being your middle infielder in fantasy.

Brantley is one of the most consistent players in all of fantasy baseball, and so long as you're looking for what he gives you, there's nothing wrong with that. He's a lock to bat .300 and he'll generally offer decent runs and RBI totals batting in a strong Houston lineup. But the power that we saw in 2019 was an aberration at this point, and unless MLB uses juiced balls again, Brantley is likely to end up in the 10-12 home run range. At an advancing age, there's always reason to be concerned that he'll fall off a cliff, but nothing in his profile suggests that is imminent. Draft him for batting average but make sure you can make up the speed and power elsewhere.

Adell has massive power but hit just four home runs in 35 games in the majors last year. But his strikeout rate was a very manageable 22.9% after it was an incredibly bloated 41.7% in 2020, and that generally bodes well for a prospect. He worked on a swing change this offseason and looks much, much more comfortable in the spring. As fantasy managers know, prospect growth is not linear, so Adell's mediocre performance in the majors to this point shouldn't give you much pause. You'll have to pay more for him than his numbers suggest you should, be he's got the type of upside that should make the price worth it.

Barlow had a fine 2021 season, finishing with 16 saves and a 2.42 ERA. That season should be enough to give him the first shot at the closer's role again this year for Kansas City, but he's far from a locked-in option. His three-pitch mix (fastball, slider, curveball) is solid, though he lacks a dominant pitch, and his control has been a bit hit or miss throughout his career. With Josh Staumont and Amir Garrett behind him, Barlow's job security may be tenuous if he struggles. He's a late-round closer who should hopefully provide you with saves early in the season. Just don't draft him expecting him to hold the role all year.

Blackmon is in obvious decline as he enters his age-35 season. At one point, he was a lock for at least 29 home runs, well over 100 runs, and double-digit steals with a .300 batting average. Now, you're hoping for .280-15-80, with any steals he throws in as gravy. There's no huge analysis that needs to be done here - Father Time is undefeated, and the old Blackmon isn't coming back. The depth of the Rockies lineup continues to take a hit, even with the addition of Kris Bryant, and at this point, you're drafting Blackmon hoping for one more mediocre season out of him. There are better places to invest your draft capital.

Pham recently signed with the Reds, and even though the team has shipped off most of its lineup, it's not a bad fit. Pham's batting average has suffered over the last two seasons, but his expected batting average (.266, .258) suggests that he's been more unlucky than anything. And although his power numbers have declined, a move to Great American Ball Park should likely add a few home runs to his ledger this year. Pham still walks a ton and is a lock for double-digit steals, and he's the type of player who fantasy managers like to ignore each year. Don't worry as much about the lack of lineup protection, and instead buy the high floor and relative lack of competition for his job.

Suarez was fantastic as both a reliever and a starter last year, compiling a 1.36 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He was almost equally dominant as a starter and a reliever, though it's worth noting that he had a very soft run of opponents during his 12 starts. More troubling for projecting Suarez is that he had a comically low home run rate (just 0.34/9 innings). Yes, his sinker moves a ton and avoids hard contact, but that's simply not a sustsainable number. He's dealt with visa issues this spring, though looks to be on track for the season, so don't let that concern you much. Instead, just understand that he's due for some major regression, and is likely to pitch closer to a 4.00 ERA this year.

Pollock reminded everyone last year why he was once such a desirable fantasy commodity. In just 117 games, he popped 21 home runs and added nine steals, all while batting .297. Pollock's issue has never been about his talent, and his career might be viewed differently if he could have stayed healthy. But his 117 games played last year represented his most since 2015, and given that he's already dealing with general soreness in the spring, it's highly unlikely that he'll surpass that number in his age-34 season. His skills have not declined much, and his 19% strikeout rate last year represented his best since 2017. So long as you factor in plenty of missed time, Pollock should again offer you fairly elite production on a game-by-game basis.

If Urquidy could avoid dealing with injuries every season, then he'd probably be drafted much earlier, but he's missed time in each of the past three seasons. When he does pitch, he's almost always solid, with a WHIP that hovers around 1.00 thanks to an elite walk rate (4.5%, top four percent of the league). His pure stuff is well above average, with a fastball, slider, and curveball that can all induce weak contact. But, at least as of now, he hasn't yet gotten his strikeout rate to where it needs to be in order to be a true impact starter. There's potential for growth in strikeouts if his slider improves, but draft Urquidy for his safety, not his ceiling, and build in some missed time.

Skubal had some growing pains last year, and he really needs to improve his four-seam fastball (.611 SLG, .413 wOBA). But he approached his season the right way, and used it to develop his secondary pitches, and both his slider and changeup came a long way. Drafting Skubal to be a starter for your team means you believe that he's going to continue his upward trend, and considering that both his strikeout and walk rates were extremely solid last year, there's reason for optimism. Just be ready for an uneven ride along the way, as is typical with young pitchers.

Rodgers finally provided some fantasy value last year, batting .284 with 15 home runs in just 102 games. The proclivity for stolen bases he showed at times in the minors is non-existent now, but he seemingly did enough to lock down an everyday job in the majors going forward. His putrid walk rate will keep both his OBP and his runs scored total in check, but he should help in batting average and approach 20 home runs. That's perfectly acceptable as a middle infielder, even if it comes with a low ceiling.

Wong played extremely well with the Brewers last year, hitting 14 home runs and stealing 12 bases in just 116 games. Wong is what he at this point - he'll chip in double digit steals and homers with a batting average that will help you, but there's no chance of a breakout season given his level of quality of contact. He should lead off for the Brewers so expect plenty of runs scored, and his totals should be enough to make him a passable middle infielder for fantasy purposes.

Here's a guy you just can't go wrong with. He has immaculate control, ace-level stuff, a really high floor and an exceptional Cy Young-level ceiling. Flaherty only pitched 78 innings last season due to shoulder and oblique injuries, but he didn't suffer any structural damage in his shoulder - it was just a strain - so that shouldn't have any lingering impact this season. He's otherwise been pretty durable. One thing to consider is that after being limited last year, Flaherty may have a cap of about 140-150 innings.

Straw is your quintessential no-power, all-speed player. He hit four home runs last year and that's not going to be anomaly given his incredibly low hard-hit rate. But he stole 30 bases and ranked in the 96th percentile in sprint speed. He'll lead off for the Guardians this season and given their likely futility on offense, it's reasonable to expect Straw to try to swipe a bag at every chance he gets. If you're covered in power, he's a fine pick, but don't have any dreams of a home run surge now or anytime in the future.

It was a tale of two halves for Rosario, as he slashed .259/.306/.367 in the first half and .309/.339/.457 in the second half. The end result was a good one, as Rosario wound up being a contributor in four of the five rotisserie categories, and is trending up heading into 2022. The biggest issue at this point is the extreme weakness of the Guardians' lineup, which is projected to be one of the worst in baseball. That's going to significantly cut into Rosario's counting stats and depress his value. But the options to help your batting average and generally contribute everywhere are few and far between, so Rosario should be no worse than a high-end bench player for your team.

Baz underwent elbow surgery, and he won't throw until early April, but the Rays reportedly don't expect him to miss much time. His pure stuff has always been electric, as he combines elite velocity with an outstanding curveball and slider. Prior to last year, his command was the only thing holding him back, but he blossomed in Double-A and kept his gains in control throughout his three-game stint in the majors. A rough postseason start aside, 2021 was all gravy for Baz, and the Rays undoubtedly expect him to be a contributor to their rotation this year. But he did pitch just 92 innings last season, and given his age, fantasy managers should expect the Rays to cap him at about 130 innings or so, so the missed time for his elbow injury isn't a huge deal as of yet. That still leaves room for Baz to provide plenty of value, so long as the helium on his draft price stays in check.

Montgomery was fine last year (3.83 ERA, 1.28 WHIP), but he didn't take the step forward that many had envisioned. His curveball is an elite pitch, and his changeup isn't far behind, but his sinker (.412 wOBA against) just gets crushed. If he leans further into his changeup and curve, you could see a giant step forward, especially since his whiff rate is already solid and his walk rate is above average. But if not, it's probably going to be yet another mediocre season for him, particularly with the tough lineups he'll face routinely.

Laureano has 28 games remaining on his suspension for PEDs, and given the dearth of talent on the A's, most fantasy managers are likely not going to target him during their drafts. But he's one of just a handful of players who are capable of putting up a 25-15 line over the course of a full season, and his eight steals over the first month last year showed how he could likely steal 25 if he really wanted to. There's not a ton to love otherwise about his offensive game, and his batting average probably won't help very much. But if you can deal with his absence for the first month of the season, he'll offer a decent power-speed combo, albeit one without many other helpful stats.

Wainwright found the fountain of youth last year, pitching to a 3.05 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP and totaling 17 wins, his most since 2014. He benefitted greatly from the weak NL Central and an outstanding defense, but the bottom line is that Wainwright was just . . . good. His curveball remained effective, his sinker worked well, and he topped 200 innings pitched. Expecting this again as he enters his age-41 season would be overly optimistic, but if you have a strong staff and just need a filler for the back end of your rotation, then Wainwright is your guy.

Schwindel had a decent minor-league track record but hadn't done much in the majors untill he went on a huge hot streak with the Cubs over the last two months of the season, hitting 13 home runs with a 1.002 OPS over 56 games. He's not nearly as good as his hot streak suggests, which most fantasy managers surely know, but he did bat .286 in the minors, so he's not likely to be overmatched. The Cubs actually have some decent offensive depth this year but with the addition of the DH, Schwindel should have plenty of rope. If he can just avoid totally falling off a cliff, and his track record suggests he will, then a 20-homer, 80-RBI season is the most likely outcome.But if you think you're drafting the 2021 version of Schwindel, you're almost certainly mistaken.

It's hard to properly assess a pitcher who has thrown 18 innings combined over the last three seasons, even one as talented as Severino. In his last two full seasons, he was a fantasy ace, pitching to a 3.18 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9 rate. He's purportedly healthy now, but you can't expect him to return to his old form after such a long layoff. Be conservative with your projections, including both his ratio stats and innings, but he's obviously got the potentuial to be a mainstay in your rotation if everything breaks right.

Suarez has continued to hit for power but his batting average has fallen off a cliff the last two seasons to just .199. Other than the fact that he had shoulder surgery just before the 2020 season, there's nothing really to explain. Almost all of his underlying metrics and quality of contact data look nearly identical to how they have his whole career, and he's just entering his age-30 season. But whatever the reason, Suarez is now a batting average drain, and he'll likely hit fewer home runs after being traded to Seattle. There's still plenty of value there, as he should still be a plus contributor in homers and RBI. But hope for a .230 batting avaerage as his ceiling at this point.

Wood rebounded from two down years n a row, climbing back to a 3.83 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. His velocity saw a notable jump from his previous full seasons, as his sinker sat nearly two miles per hour more than he had back in 2019. Despite his strong strikeout rate, the fact that we're talking about Wood as having this excellent bounceback season with over a 3.80 ERA tells you all you need to know. Even if you buy that he can stay mostly healthy again, which is very much in question, his ceiling simply isn't high enough for you to draft him as anything but a late-round pick.

DeSclafani is back with the Giants after an impressive 2021 season during which he pitched to a 3.17 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. It's not going out on a limb to say that DeSclafani is not going to repeat those numbers this year, however. He's really mostly just a two-pitch pitcher at this point, with an excellent slider and decent fastball, and he doesn't have the strikeout rate to sustain the ratio stats we saw last year. But San Francisco is a good place to pitch, the Giants should boast a strong team again, and DeSclafani's control is good enough so that he should have a decent floor. Just take a point off his 2021 ERA when you consider where to draft him.

Lowe had plenty of exciting moments last year, especially early in the season, and ultimately ended up with a respectable 18 home runs and eight steals, along with a .264 batting average. He'll have significantly more help this year in the Texas lineup with the additions of Corey Seager, Mitch Garver, and Marcus Semien, so he can likely top the 147 combined runs and RBI he finished with last year. And if his above average exit velocity and hard hit rate can manifest itself into more power, it could be a big year for Lowe.

Escobar rarely gets much love from fantasy managers, probably because everything under the hood doesn't usually support his numbers. He almost always outperforms his expected statistics, and he offers no help in batting average or steals. But he does have plenty of pop (53 homers over his last two full seasons, at least 21 in each of his last four), and he's been a plus in runs scored and RBI despite playing on mediocre teams. He'll now be the everyday third baseman for the Mets, so managers can enjoy his dual eligibility, and his placement in the middle of a strong lineup should keep all his counting stats afloat. There's not a ton of upside with Escobar, but there's a high floor.

It's not often that an offensive player can be traded out of Toronto and get an upgrade in his value, but that's exactly what Grichuk got with his move to Colorado. We know what Grichuk is by now - he's gonna make elite contact with the ball a ton, but he's not at all selective, so he holds himself back by swinging at bad pitches. There's a ton of power with the veteran, and Coors Field should help boost his batting average from his career .245 mark. He's slated to bat sixth right now, meaning there should be RBI opportunity aplenty, so he makes a fine fifth outfielder for your fantasy team, with the upside to be more.

Torkelson looks poised to start the year in the majors with the Tigers at first base, and there is a lot of reason to be excited after he blazed through three levels of the minors last year. He likely won't hit for much average, but he's got an exceptional eye at the plate (his lowest walk rate at any level last was 13%) and he hit 30 home runs in 121 games total in 2021. He's just 22 years old so don't be surprised if he struggles at first. But particularly in keeper formats, and even in redraft leagues, the upside is so strong that he should be a late-round target everywhere.

Canha had an interesting 2021 season, as he saw his average continue to trend down but randomly stole 12 bases with Oakland. Now with the Mets, he'll likely bat toward the bottom of the order, so chances are he won't come close to the 93 runs he scored last year. If you're in an OBP league, Canha's value increases greatly, as his walk rate hasn't been lower than 12.3% in any of the last three seasons. But in a standard 5x5 league, he's mostly just a filler option.

Ryan had a nice cup of coffee in the majors last year until the Tigers beat him up to inflate his overall numbers. There's been a lot of hype around the youngster but his stuff isn't overwhelming. His fastball is an enigma, in that it sits at just 91 MPH but batters just can't hit it (.172 BAA). If he can sustain that, along with his better than average slider, then there could be success for the full year, especially with his control. But more than likely, you're looking at a league average fantasy starter, one who will have more perceived than actual value.

It appears as of now that Conforto guessed wrong when he turned down a long-term offer from the Mets and the qualifying offer, as he finds himself in an awkward limbo without a team well into the spring. There's obvious potential with Conforto, who hit at least 27 home runs for three straight seasons, gets on base at an above-average clip, and is just entering his age-29 season. But as we saw with Kris Bryant, it's hard to properly assess a player's fantasy value until we know his landing spot and, in Conforto's case, when he's going to sign.In a vacuum, however, Conforto can be a third or fourth outfielder for your fantasy team, someone who is capable of contributing in all five categories, though likely not excelling at any. Until he signs, you should drop him a good 10 spots from where you would otherwise have him, but he's not going to sit out the entire season, so don't let him fall too far in drafts.

Bader has always been known as a defensive outfielder, but his offensive game picked up last year. He cut his strikeout rate six points from his career mark and set a career best in home runs (16) and RBI (50), Bader has never had more than 427 plate appearances in a season, but he could easily steal 20 bases if stays healthy, as he ranks in the 97th percentile in sprint speed. Consider him akin to Tommy Pham around his prime in a best-case scenario, and given his ADP, he's a solid investment.

Schoop is rarely talked about during prep season, but he has hit at least 21 home runs in each of his last five full seasons. That doesn't sound overly impressive, but that level of consistency in power from a second baseman is unusual and impressive. As usual, Schop was again among the league leaders in maximum exit velocity (117.1 MPH, a career high), and his hard hit rate was nearly five percentage points higher than his career average. The Tigers' lineup should be stronger this year with the addition of Javier Baez, and considering that Schoop is just 30 years old and has shown no signs of decline, there's every reason to expect his boring but stealthily productive numbers once again.

Hernandez had an extremely solid year batting atop the Red Sox lineup, hitting 20 home runs and tallying 84 runs scored. Very little about his underlying batted ball data and overall metrics were different - he just stayed healthy and became an everyday player. His batting average won't help you and he offers nothing in the stolen base category. But he should be a major asset in runs scored and contribute in homers and RBI. With the addition of Trevor Story, he'll likely be the everyday center fielder, but he'll retain his second base eligibility from last year, further strengthening his value. Hernandez won't win you your league, but he's the type of player you can leave in your lineup all year long.

Dalbec has a ton of power, and ranked in the top nine percent of the league in average and maximum exit velocity. But he also struck out often, 34.4% of the time, which led to a middling .240 batting average despite him hitting the ball hard consistently. That's likely what we'll see again in his second year, though with more job security and perhaps a minor step up. Dalbec is one of a handful of 25-homer bats going very late in drafts, but he has enough upside to hit 35 without too much needing to go right. That makes him the ideal bench player or corner infielder in deeper mixed leagues.

Doval was outstanding in his limited innings last year, striking out more than a third of the batters he faced while pitching to a 3.00 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He's a two-pitch pitcher, but that's fine for a reliever so long as at least one of those pitches is elite, which his slider is (.167 BAA, .202 wOBA). He's got the stuff to close full-time, and many fantasy pundits believe he will this year. But Jake McGee remains, as does Tyler Rogers, and it takes a lot for Gabe Kapler to hand the closer reins over to a single pitcher. He'll get some saves at the very least and likely help your ratios, but don't plan on him locking down the role all year without a fight.

Aguilar probably would have gotten to 100 RBI last year had he not dealt with knee inflammation at the end of last season. But other than that category, it just feels like he leaves a lot on the table. Despite prodigious power, last year was only the second in his career where he topped 20 home runs. He'll benefit from the addition of the DH this year, but the bottom line is that between the Marlins' lackluster lineup and Aguilar's lack of speed, he's going to offer little in many categories, including runs scored and stolen bases. He's a fine filler if you need RBI, but don't expect all that much production elsewhere given his home park and surrounding cast.

Barnes was one of the best pitchers in baseball over the first half of the season, harnessing his control and dominating with his fastball/cuveball combination. But he fell apart in the second half, seeing his ERA rise by almost four points. There's speculation that his decline was related to MLB cracking down on foreign substances but, either way, the first half version of Barnes disappeared. His job security was in doubt heading into the year, but the Red Sox didn't bring anyone into challenge him and the biggest internal competitior for the job, Garrett Whitlock, has been stretched out for a starter or long-relief role. Expect Barnes to begin the year as the closer but whether he remains all year is anyone's guess. Draft him as a low-end second reliever and hope we say the first-half 2021 version of him.

 

Sano reportedly lost 25 pounds this offseason and is in, wait for it, the best shape of his life. Hopefully that means he can stay healthy and productive because, simply put, he hits the ball as hard as anyone in the game. He is always in the top three percent of the league in hard hit rate and exit velocity, and 50 homers could potentially be in reach if he put it all together. But he struck out 34.4% of the time last year and that was the best single-season mark in that category of his career. There is potential, as there always is with Sano, but you've got to be in really good shape in batting average before you take on the risk with him.

Urias exploded last year, putting up 23 homers with 149 combined runs and RBI. Just to put that into perspective, Urias's high in home runs before last year was four, and his best combined runs and RBI total was 51. Most of his production was backed up by the underlying data, as his hard-contact rates exploded. He'd be a prime sleeper but he's battling a quad injury that is going to shut him down until early April at least, so knock him down your draft board a bit with the injury news. Performance-wise, however, last year looks legitimate.

Soto was decent last year once he took over as the closer, posting 18 saves on the season with a 3.39 ERA. But his walk rate was an abysmal 14.5%, leading to a 1.35 WHIP, which just isn't sustainable. The Tigers don't have an elite bullpen but Michael Fulmer and Jose Cisnero can close in a pinch. With the uncertainty and Soto's control issues, don't bank on more than 20 saves.

Kittredge tallied eight saves last season, and should be in line for the bulk of the opportunities early in the year with Pete Fairbanks dealing with a strained lat. He's had success for several years now, relying on his excellent command and his fastball-slider combination. Based on pure stuff, if we knew Kittredge would be the closer all year, he'd be way up the reliever ranks. But fantasy managers know by now that you cant trust a Rays reliever, so book 15 saves for Kittredge for now. Anything else is gravy.

Kepler's expected stats suggest he got pretty unlucky last year, as they looked a lot like his 2019 season where he hit 38 home runs and batted .252. On the plus side, he did swipe 10 bases, the first time he had reached double digits in that category in his career. His true outcome likely lies somewhere between his 2019 season and last year's numbers, and he's more of a .240, 20-homer bat. The bigger problem this year is that the Twins' lineup likely won't be strong, and his counting stats will take a hit. Kepler can fill in for you, just don't rely on him as a starter.

Ruiz will be the starting catcher for the Nationals this year and will bat in the middle of the lineup. Ignore his mediocre numbers from last year, because he has the upside to be a top-5 catcher if everything breaks right. Ruiz's power hasn't quite developed as projected, but he hit 19 home runs in 81 games between the majors and minors last year. He has elite contact skills and rarely strikes out, so his batting average should be a plus, especially for a catcher. Don't be concerned to reach a bit given his upside.

Bednar tallied the first three saves of his career last season and had stellar numbers overall with a 2.23 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with good strikeout numbers. There was reason to think he'd be the closer heading into 2022, but all signs point to a committee with Chris Stratton. The Pirates should again be one of the weakest teams in baseball, so save chances aren't going to be abundant anyway. Given his team and the current lack of clarity with his situation, don't draft him any higher than as a third reliever.

Santander dealt with a litany of injuries last year to his lower body, so the fact that he still popped 18 home runs in 100 games is rather impressive. He's admitted he is not 100% healthy after last year, which is obviously concerning with the season on the verge of beginning. Nevertheless, given Santander's ADP, he's well worth drafting. He's got 25 home runs in his bat easily if he can remain healthy, and his defense is so strong that he'll remain in the lineup even if he struggles offensively to start as he finds his footing. He rarely walks and so his runs scored total will never help you, but he's fine as a cheap outfield bat that always gets overlooked in fantasy.

Syndergaard has pitched two innings since 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and then having setbacks last season, and he'll get a fresh start with the Angels. Fantasy managers know what he brings to the table when he's at his best. A high-90s fastball, and excellent curveball, changeup, and slider, and the ability to dominate any lineup he faces when he's on. There are obvious injury concerns, but considering his low ADP, he has more upside than any pitcher going around him. Take comfort in the fact that he took a one-year deal in an effort to rebuild his value, and accept the discount on someone who could easily be an SP2 or SP3 if he stays healthy.

McKenzie's overall numbers from last year look rough, as he pitched to a 4.95 ERA and had an 11.7% walk rate. But he was significantly better after he returned from the minors in the second half of the season and at least offered hoped for this year. McKenzie is incredibly slight and he needs to improve his command and the effectiveness of his fastball to become a reliable fantasy starter. But he's worth a late flier given his pedigree.

Ryu has always relied on his outstanding changeup and cutter, but both were hit hard last year. He still didn't walk many batters but his home run rate spiked while his strikeout rate plummeted. Ryu needs his secondary stuff to be successful, as his fastball barely sits at 90 miles per hour and has never been effective. Was 2021 a blip or the beginning of a decline? The good news for fantasy managers is that they should find out quickly this year, because either Ryu is inducing weak contact and getting swings and misses early, or you can cut bait. But given his pedigree and long track record, taking a late-round flier on him isn't a terrible idea.

Fantasy managers have wondered for years what Gray would look like out of Coors Field, and now they get their chance to see. Gray has the pure stuff to succeed - a fastball that sits at 95 MPH, a strong slider, and decent command. If he benefits from moving not just out of Coors but to a pitcher's park in Texas, as everyone expects, then we could finally see a decent WHIP with a sub-4.00 ERA. He is 30 years old now, so this is a lot of hypotheticals for a veteran such as him. But he's definitely worth a gamble late in your draft.

It would be great if Marquez could get out of Colorado, because he's just not going to reach his potential with the Rockies. His strikeout rate has been below one per inning for the last two seasons, his walk rate is trending in the wrong direction, and his win totals will almost certainly not rise beyond mediocrity. The best thing about Marquez is that he will give you innings, as he's basically pitched full seasons for five years straight. If you have a strong rotation otherwise and just need that extra arm, then you can draft Marquez late for the back end of your staff.

Candelario is not an exciting player. He has little speed and probsbly won't surpass 20 home runs. But he won't hurt you in batting average and will give you passable runs scored and RBI totals batting in an improved Tigers offense. With third base being so shallow, Candelario is a player you can draft late who can fill in on off-days or be a bench player. It's never fun to draft low-upside players late, but Candelario is one of the few guys to take a shot on there.

With Tucker Barnhart out of town, Stephenson will get his shot as the primary catcher for the Reds. He was extremely productive last year with a .797 OPS and 10 home runs in just 102 games, all while batting .286. Don't expect him to continue with his pace, as catchers often get overexposed when they take on more playing time. But he'll bat in the middle of the Cincinnati lineup, and when you're looking for a backstop who won't cost you anything but should give you fairly reliable production for the position, Stephenson is your guy.

Myers couldn't sustain the many gains he made in the shortened 2020 season, but he didn't fall off a cliff entirely. His .256 batting average was his best (other than 2020) since 2016, and he offered 25 combined home runs and steals. The thing is that Myers' strikeout rate rose to 28.2%, but that's a number he can live with if he continued to make the quality of contact we're used to seeing from him. But, he didn't. His hard hit rate and exit velocity fell off a cliff (his 29.8% hard contact rate was one of the worst in baseball). It would seem like an odd decline for Myers, who was just 30 last year, so it may have just been a blip. But, it's worth being cautious before you head into the season assuming he'll bounce back. Given his ADP, however, you won't need to have confidence in him for him to be worth drafting.

Houck will begin the year in the rotation despite an uneven spring, and he showed a lot of upside last year. His strikeout rate sat at 30.5% while his walk rate was just 7.4%, and his 3.52 ERA was inflated according to all metrics. He's got an outstanding slider, which is what really propels his success, but his lack of other pitches in his arsenal often forces him to go deep into counts and shortens his outings. He should be on your sleeper list because he has huge potential, but understand that if he struggles, he could be moved to the bullpen, even with Chris Sale currently on the shelf.

Yastrzemski couldn't replicate his 2020 pace, though he did hit 25 home runs and total 155 combined runs and RBI. His batting average plummeted to just .224 (and his .222 xBA, one of the worst in the league, showed that number was earned), as pitchers continued their trends of throwing him fewer and fewer fastballs and more off-speed offerings.He performed terribly against non-fastballs last year, which led to a ridiculously low .254 BABIP, which was way out of character for him. Yastrzemski needs to adjust, but the good news is that the power he's shown appears to be real, and his counting stats should stay afloat batting in a strong San Francisco lineup. But until or unless he can improve against off-speed pitches, he'll likely struggle with batting average.

Garver moved to Texas this offseason and even though he'll play at least half his games in a pitcher-friendly park, it's still a great move for his value. Garver has never had more than 359 plate appearances in a season, but he should easily top 400 this year, and he's going to bat behind Marcus Semien and Corey Seager. Garver doesn't strike out a ton for a catcher and has as much power as nearly anyone at the position, so 20 home runs should be the bare minimum if he stays healthy. Draft him late but fully understand that he has top-five catcher upside.

It should be pretty accepted by now that Civale is not going to morph into an above-average fantasy starter. His velocity is sub-par, his strikeout rate is mediocre at best, and he'll be pitching behind one of the worst lineups in baseball. His FIP, xFIP, and xERA all suggest that he was lucky last year, so really, if you're looking for reasons to be optimistic that Civale can take a leap forward, there just aren't any from last year. Spend your draft capital on someone with more upside, even in the later rounds.

Sewald is a fine reliever and he upped his strikeout rate to an impressive 39.4% last year, one of the best marks in the majors. His expected stats (.182 xBA, .262 xWOBA) were pristine, and he offered plenty of hope that he could hold the Mariners' closer job if given the opportunity. That last part is the operative phrase, however, as Seattle is likely looking at some form of committee between Sewald, Drew Steckenrider, Diego Castillo, and Ken Giles. Sewald isn't a bad late-round candidate for his ratios alone, and he should add on at least a few saves even if he doesn't win the job outright.

Cobb joins the Giants after a successful one-year stint with the Angels where he put up his best numbers in years. He avoided hard contact well, upped his strikeout rate to a career high, and cut his home run rate to a miniscule level. It's unclear if his 2021 season was just a blip or if his gains are sustainable, but a move to San Francisco can't be a bad thing. If he just repeats last year and avoids injury, he'll be a steal at his ADP.

Vaughn's rookie season was a little unfair, as he was thrust into the outfield despite little experience there when Eloy Jimenez suffered a serious injury in the spring. His 15 home runs in 127 games as a rookie showed his potential, but his 21.5% strikeout rate was a bit higher than projected. He'll likely see at-bats from several positions this year, as he plays outfield, first base, and DH, and it's likely that an advanced college bat such as his will take a step forward this year. Expect a good 20% increase on all his numbers across the board, which should make him startable, but not quite a fantasy superstar.

Ynoa pitched only 101 1/13 innings last season between the majors and the minors, and ended the season with a sore shoulder. There was some doubt about whether he would begin the year in the rotation but he has pitched well and been healthy this spring, so those concerns can likely be put to bed. Ynoa has an elite slider and an outstanding fastball that both miss bats, and both pitches are so good that fantasy managers should feel confident that he can succeed as a starter despite really having just those two pitches. With that said, the Braves will likely be careful with his innings this season, so there's no reason to draft him too early since he probably has a 140-inning cap.

 

McCutchen batted just .222 last year with the worst strikeout rate of his career (23%), but he provided plenty of value elsewhere. His walk rate was a robust 14.1%, he slugged 27 home runs, and fell just short of 160 combined runs and RBI. He'll move to Milwaukee this year, and so his power should translate once again, and he'll likely get to extra at-bats as the DH. He's not exciting, but even the batting average should bounce back a bit given his expected stats last year, so don't be afraid to pull the trigger late.

Sanchez hits the ball hard and does so consistently, so he has a ton of power upside. He won't maintain the almost 40-homer pace he was on last year, and he needs to improve on his 31.1% strikeout rate if he's going to take a jump in value. But think Adolis Garcia without the speed - someone who will at times look unstoppable and go on major runs, but other times will frustrate you with his lack of consistency. He has the upside for 30-homer, 90-RBI season, so as a late-round pick, he's a great option.

Kikuchi's MLB career has been underwhelming thus far, as he's clocked in with nearly a 5.00 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. He'll head to a Toronto team that managed to harness Robbie Ray's pure stuff, so maybe they'll do the same with Kikuchi, but it will take a leap of faith on the part of fantasy managers to draft him expecting that. He does have decent raw stuff - both his cutter and slider can be borderline dominant when he's on and his fastball can be successful when he gets that little extra bit of velocity, like he showed early last year. But ultimately, Kikuchi's pitch mix is not strong enough to overcome hi lack of command, and considering how high his home run rate was in Seattle, it's unlikely things will improve in Toronto. Maybe there's a step forward but, again, it's largely wishful thinking at this point.

Cruz has somehow stayed at shortstop despite being 6'7, and he opened the eyes of even the casual fantasy manager this spring with his long home runs. The power is real, without question, but there will undoubtedly be plenty of strikeout issues once he's in the majors. That won't be out of the gate, as the Pirates optioned him to Triple-A. He's worth drafting even with this development, but you may have to wait a month more to see him contribute.

Trivino is going to begin the year as the closer for the A's after racking up 22 saves last season. He throws hard and mixes his pitches extremely well for a reliever, but he struggles with his control at times and was a bit lucky last year. The A's should be wone of the worst teams in baseball after trading away many of their impact players, so saves may be hard to come by in any event. But there aren't many relievers who are guaranteed to have the ninth-inning to themselves to start the season, and Trivino is one of them. That makes him worth drafting everywhere.

 

It's hard not to love a guy who sprints to first base after a walk, especially when he walks 14% of the time, one of the best rates in baseball. Nimmo will lead off again this year for the Mets, and given his elite OBP (.393 career), he should score plenty of runs. He doesn't have a ton of power or speed, but a fully healthy Nimmo should give you close to a 15-10 season with a plus batting average and contribution in the runs scored categories. The key phrase there is "fully healthy," because Nimmo's 92 games played last year were the second most of his career. But that injury risk is baked into his ADP, so draft him late and start him when he's in the lineup. You likely won't be disappointed if you do.

Matz had a surprisingly effective year despite moving to the AL East and Toronto, pitching 150 2/3 innings with a 3.82 ERA. We know what he is by now in his career - a strikeout rate that won't hurt you, a decent walk rate that isn't enough to keep his WHIP in check, and a ceiling of about 160 innings. Moving to St. Louis is a great thing for him, however, as he'll benefit from the Cardinals' excellent infield defense (Matz has a 47.1% ground ball rate). But he's essentially a replacement level fantasy starter at this point, and entering his age-31 season, we're probably not going to see much growth.

Mize's overall numbers were impressive in 2021, with a 3.71 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. But his expected stats suggested he was incredibly lucky, and his 19.3% strikeout rate wasn't helping fantasy managers. Mize is young and both his fastball and slider, which are already league average or better, can continue to improve as he grows as a pitcher, and the Tigers are likely to loosen the reins a bit with his innings. He's an ideal late-round pick for your bench given his upside, but don't get into the season relying on him as anything more than your last starter.

Ober is a really intriguing name to watch this year, as his strikeout rate and elite command have all the makings of an impact fantasy starter. He gave up way too many homers last year (1.95/9 innings), but that's due for regression given his minor-league track record. His stuff isn't overwhelming, and he sits at just about 92 MPH on his fastball. But his pedigree and performance last year are good enough for you to take a shot on late in your drafts.

Kiner-Falefa had eight home runs and 20 steals last season, but he was the ultimate compiler with 677 plate appearances. He'll move to a better lineup and home park with the Yankees but, realistically, his value was at his ceiling last year. He doesn't hit the ball particularly hard or get on base much, but his defense should keep him in the lineup enough to again compile enough stats to at least be interesting for fantasy. But "interesting" is basically his ceiling.

Carrasco was limited to just 53 2/3 innings last season as he was delayed due to a hamstring injury. He then dealt with elbow troubles, which ultimately led him to have surgery in the offseason to remove bone spurs in his elbow. Both his splitter and his slider have looked good thus far in the spring, and he claims to be fully healthy, so he's certainly worth an investment given his late ADP. Despite his advancing age, Carrasco still has the potential to be a No. 3 fantasy starter given his career strikeout rate and past success, so he's the exact type of late-round starter fantasy managers should be targeting.

Bohm was dreadful last year, but there's a pretty plausible theory as to what went wrong. He was one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball in the first half of the year, ranking near the top of the league in quality of contact but just not seeing the results. Eventually, that got into his head, and he expanded the zone and watched his strikeout rate climb significantly. By the end of the year, Bohm was a total mess, swinging at pitches out of the zone, taking pitches in the zone, and watching his already poor numbers decline. That's not the type of thing that usually derails a hitter for multiple seasons, so hopefully he can get back to doing what made him a strong prospect- being patient and hitting the ball hard. He's worth a flier late in your drafts, just don't go into the season relying on him.

There's no doubting McCullers's stuff at this point. Already armed with an elite curveball, he added an equally dominant slider to the mix last season (.150 BAA, .242 wOBA), and set a career-high in innings with 162.1. Unfortunately, he ended the year on the shelf with an elbow injury and is now delayed in the spring because of a flexor tendon strain.The fact that he is still dealing with an injury at this point is extremely worrisome, especially for a pitcher with a history of elbow trouble. Drop him way down your draft boards, and take him only if you have plenty of depth or you are in desperate need of upside.

Vazquez's power fell off a cliff last year, as his barrel percentage and hard-hit rate plummeted to some of the worst in the league. He's 31 years old now, about the time that a catcher begins to head downhill, so expecting a rebound is probably overly optimistic. He'll likely still have decent runs and RBI for a catcher just by virtue of playing for the Red Sox, but he's no longer someone to draft as your starting backstop in a one-catcher league.

McNeil's 2019 power outburst looks like a total anomaly, as he hit just seven home runs last year. His usual reliable batting average bottomed out to just .251 as he played through injury, but most of his underlying metrics looked strong. He'll rarely strike out, but there's just not that much that he can offer given his lack of power and speed. Worse still, he'll likely now bat in the bottom third of the Mets' batting order with the team's additions. There's little reason to consider McNeil in any capacity this year unless he somehow finds his power stroke.

 

Hendricks won the "most underrated starter" award for five years in a row or so because fantasy managers liked to ignore his excellent numbers due to his low velocity and strikeout rate. But the bill came due last eason, and he had, by far, the worst season of his career. His ERA pushed 5.00, his WHIP was two tenths of a point higher than his career mark, and his already low strikeout rate dipped further. There's hope for a rebound, of course. Hendricks is just 32, his home run rate seemed unsustainably high, and through it all, he still got to 14 wins. But this already feels like fantasy manager missed the opportunity to jump off the Hendricks ship a year too early rather than a year too late. Hendricks needs to have pristine ratios to justify the strikeout rate, and pitching in front of a mediocre defense, it seems highly unlikely he'll get there. There are better places to spend your late-round investment.

 

Greinke is back where it all began in Kansas City, but he's obviously a different pitcher than he once was. His walk rate is still pristine but he rarely misses bats anymore and, as a result, his ERA has been above 4.00 in each of the past two seasons. He's still as durable as they come, and he'll earn wins just because he'll go deep into games. But there's little upside anymore, so don't feel compelled to draft him based on name value.

Barlow saved 18 games between the majors and the minors last year, putting up excellent ratios. He'll get the first opportunity to close in Texas, but he doesn't have a lengthy track record with being the stopper, so the leash probably isn't that long. That's not a great thing considering his ERA metrics were far worse than his actual numbers and his walk-rate is sub par. Barlow is a closer, so he should be drafted, but don't go in expecting 25 saves given the risks.

If they gave out fantasy points for soft contact, Lopez would be one of your leaders. He has five home runs in three combined seasons, and his career high in RBI is 43. He has some speed, as his 22 stolen bases showed last year, and he shouldn't hurt you in batting average. But batting ninth in a mediocre Kansas City lineup, with zero power upside, is just not a formula for success. There are better places to spend your late-round draft capital.

Tapia moves from Colorado to Toronto, and although that's an obvious downgrade in terms of home park, it's pretty much as neutral a change as Tapia could have hoped for. He'll still play his home games in an extreme hitter-friendly environment, and he'll see a major upgrade in his surrounding lineup. The problem for Tapia, however, remains the same. He has extremely meager power numbers, and not enough speed to be a true difference-maker in the stolen base category (though he did swipe 20 last year). He'll almost certainly bat in the lower third of the lineup with Toronto, as he likely would have with the Rockies anyway, and his probable increase in runs scored should be canceled out by his likely drop in batting average (his xBA has been in the .250s in each of the last three seasons). There's little upside with Tapia, but he won't hurt you, so he's a decent bench option if you're light on steals.

Whitlock pitched out of the bullpen last year and many speculated that he might be a candidate to close this season after Matt Barnes struggled down the stretch. But instead he's being stretched out and is battling it out for a rotation spot. If he fails, he'll likely be a long-reliever and have little fantasy value. But, if he does lock down a starting spot, he has a great deal of upside. His fastball sits at 95 miles per hour and both his changeup and slider are above average. Monitor the reports as we head into the season but keep him on your radar in case he does land in the rotation.

 

d'Arnaud has plenty of offensive talent, but he's now 33 years old and coming off an injury-plagued season that limited him to just 60 games. That's been the bugaboo for d'Arnaud throughout his career, as he's never had more than 391 plate appearances in a season. If you could guarantee his health, then his power upside and strong supporting cast would likely be enough to make him a top-12 catcher. But there's no way to bank on that, so outside of NL-only or two-catcher formats, don't bother with him in fantasy.

Urshela was moved to Minnesota this offseason where he'll man third base and likely bat in the bottom third of the order. When healthy, he's a high-average, 20-homer bat who will chip in everywhere but steals. But his margin for error is fairly thin given how mediocre his quality of contact is and with his poor walk rate. Given that his surrounding llineup and home park took a pretty drastic step down, he's really just an AL-only option at this point.

Smith was a bit maddening at times last year when he struggled with his control, but he ultimately tallied 37 saves en route to a championship season. He was slated to be the closer for Atlanta once again, but with the Braves signing Kenley Jansen, Smith is now nothing more than an insurance policy. Don't bother drafting him in mixed leagues but keep your eye on him on the waiver wire in case Jansen struggles significantly.

Strasburg is coming back from surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome, and we've seen that surgery derail promising careers before. He's thrown just 26.2 innings over the last two seasons, and although he's reportedly healthy and feeling good, he probably won't make his debut until May at this point. Despite his elite career numbers, fantasy managers cannot go into 2022 expecting to get anything from Strasburg as a starter. Drafting him for your bench and hoping you get 10 good starts out of him at some point is the safe way to go, but at this point, you should be rooting for Strasburg more from the standpoint of a baseball fan, not a fantasy manager.

 

 

 

 

Lewis is dealing with knee issues and likely won't be ready for Opening Day. When healthy, he's a talented but low-floor option, as he doesn't have a ton of speed or power and his strikeout rate (29.5% career) keeps his batting average in check. He's just 26 years old so, of course, there's upside for more. But the knee issues are enough of a reason to look elsewhere when you're considering a late-round outfielder.

Sims is going to begin the year on the IL after battling some elbow soreness, but he'll factor in for saves once he's healthy. He has major strikeout stuff with his fastball and slider combination, but his control wanes at times, enough to keep him from becoming a lockdown, guaranteed option in the ninth inning. He is worth drafting late, but do so expecting 15 saves or fewer.

 

Floro is slated to be the Marlins' closer but he is battling an arm injury right now that could threaten his availability for Opening Day. When healthy, he's an above-average reliever, though not one with a classic closer's outlook. He doesn't throw that hard or have elite command, but he limits hard contact at an elite rate, and that's really the key to his success. Assuming he's ready for the beginning of the season or shortly thereafter, he should be good for at least 15 saves. Anything more is gravy.

 

 

 

 

Rojas chipped in last year, but he didn't quite meet expectations placed on him after a strong spring. He came a steal short of reaching double digits in both home runs and steals, but his expected stats leave little to be desired. He's got position flexibility and won't hurt you while he's in there, but he's not someone you can draft as a starter and feel confident about. Expect a similar line to last year.