Of course, you don’t want to overreact to a limited sample of games. Some of your league members might, however, and that can be used to your advantage. Whether it’s by unloading overachievers or getting a bargain price on slumping players, opportunities exist.
With this in mind, we asked several fantasy experts to give us their top early-season “buy low” & “sell high” players. Here’s who the experts picked…
| Buy Low, Sell High Summary | ||
| Expert | Sell High | Buy Low |
| Matt Gelfand – Baseball HQ | Austin Jackson (DET) | Buster Posey (SF) |
| R.J. White – Fantasy Baseball Café | David Freese (STL) | Yu Darvish (TEX) |
| Robert Bishop – Fake Teams | Mark Trumbo (LAA) | Dan Haren (LAA) |
| Muntradamus – Beast Dome | David Freese (STL) | Mark Teixeira (NYY) |
Q1: Give us one player off to strong start that you would consider selling high if the right deal came along.
Austin Jackson (.405 AVE, 2 HR, 4 RBI): This one hurts a little bit, because I’m a sucker for runs and I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t eclipse 100 in that loaded Tigers lineup, but Jackson’s current average may fool some owners into believing he’s transformed himself into a .300 hitter. Au contraire. His meddling contact rate remains the same, only his balls have been finding gaps (.565 BABIP). It’s also slightly disconcerting that he’s never been able to eclipse 30 steals despite his plus speed. Shop Jackson around before his average regresses, and you may be able to land another run-accumulator with slightly more sustainable skills (Think: Elvis Andrus).
David Freese (.406 AVE, 3 HR, 11 RBI): I’ll assume your league isn’t filled with n00bs willing to overpay for Derek Jeter or Barry Zito and focus on a guy everyone loves: David Freese. The STL 3B parlayed a strong 2nd half into an unforgettable postseason run before starting this year with an average over .400 as of Monday and three HRs. I’m not predicting a big dropoff by any means, but I do think you can secure a top-50 player in a deal while giving up a guy you drafted in the 100s a few weeks ago.
Mark Trumbo (.375 AVE, 2 HR, 3 RBI): In my mind, a player is not a legitimate sell high candidate if there’s little track record. Fantasy owners are going to be more skeptical of breakout seasons from guys they haven’t heard of before. I could try to sell my leaguemates on Matt Carpenter, but most of them won’t be buying, and odds are he was on the waiver wire until a few days ago anyway. That’s why I’m backing Mark Trumbo. He finished second in ROY voting last year and hit 29 home runs. He’s already got 2 this year, and he’s hitting .375/.474/.750 on the young year. Mike Scioscia has to find him playing time, right? Well, maybe not. His glove is predictably playing poorly at the hot corner, and we all know how Mike Napoli’s defensive reputation worked for him. Furthermore, Trumbo isn’t going to be maintaining a HR/FB% of 40 or a BB/K of 1.50 (last year: 0.21, never higher than 0.46 in the minors).
David Freese (.406 AVE, 3 HR, 11 RBI): Yes, it is entirely possible that Freese is building off of his epic 5 HR, 21 RBI postseason that eventually led the Cardinals to be World Series champions. But what is less possible is Freese hitting 30 HRs and 100 RBIs, when his career high was 10 HRs last season in 97 games. That would put him on pace for less than 17 HRs in a full season.
Right now you can convince owners around your fantasy leagues otherwise, and you could get a substantial upgrade such as Ryan Zimmerman or possibly Brett Lawrie. Either way, this is the time to sell high on Freese where 25+ HRs would be considered an ELITE season for him.
Q2: Name one struggling player that you think represents a good “buy low” opportunity.
Buster Posey (.321 AVE, 1 HR, 3 RBI): Posey’s engine just needs a little revving. Others view his mundane start as a sign that he won’t return to his pre-horrific-fibula-injury form. Play up that angle. The name of the game with Posey is patience. His core skills remain intact, and once he shakes off the rust (and the shingles), you’ll be in line for a profit in the second half.
Yu Darvish (1-0, 4.76 ERA, 2.21 WHIP): Anybody that gives up 17 hits and eight walks over two starts has definitely earned the title “struggling,” and that’s where we are with Yu Darvish. When you consider that no one really knew what to make of him coming over from Japan, there’s an opportunity to buy extremely low if your Yu owner is panicking. While he’s not going to win a Cy Young in his first year, I’m comfortable projecting him with 15 wins, an ERA under 4.00 and more than 160 Ks this year. If you can get that line dirt cheap, do so.
Dan Haren (0-1, 6.97 ERA, 2.13 WHIP): Before the season started I had Dan Haren finishing with better stats than teammate Jered Weaver, and they’re both making me look very foolish right now. It’s early, though, and Dan Haren should not only bounce back, but bounce back to continue to post elite numbers. His K/BB is an insane 6.00 right now, with the swinging strike and first strike numbers to back it up. What’s killing him right now is BABIP, which stands at an unsustainable .486. The end result is an ERA that’s over twice as much as his xFIP. Dan Haren will be fine.
Mark Teixeira. (.250 AVE, 0 HR, 3 RBI): Right now the slugger is in the midst of “another” early season slump. You notice I put quotes around “another.” Take a look at how Teixeira has finished off all of his seasons despite a slow start, or a hot start. As you can see, Tex can still have a great season despite starting out 2012 slow. He will be batting in the heart of a Yankee lineup that can easily be the best offense in baseball, and now is a great time to buy extremely low on the 32 year old Yankee slugger.
Q3: If you had to pick one early surprise player that you feel will maintain a high level throughout the season, who would that player be?
Chris Young (.405 AVE, 5 HR, 13 RBI): The tipping point for Young to be viewed as an upper-echelon talent has always been his batting average – and for good reason – he’s never batted above .260 in his six MLB seasons. Yet, the toolsy outfielder has exploded out of the gate this year, and has altered his hitting mechanics to produce a more compact swing. His approach has also matured. His current 15 percent walk rate and 12.5 percent K-rate are both career bests. At age 28, he seems primed to put it all together. Young has a 30/30 ceiling, and could end up being the player we all thought B.J. Upton would become.
Matt Wieters (.344 AVE, 4 HR, 9 RBI): Wieters was once the Bryce Harper of fantasy baseball, but once reality set in, owners were abandoning him by and large. He’s given notice that 2012 will be his breakout year, hitting .344 with 4 HRs in nine games. A 4/7 K/BB ratio reveals he’s showing plenty of patience, and he has a very real shot at finishing as the top ranked catcher and being drafted in the top 25 in 2013.
Danny Duffy (1-1, 2.13 ERA, 1.03 WHIP): Duffy is not going to leave 98% of runners on base like he has so far, but a look at his PitchFX suggests that he may be able to keep striking guys out at an elite rate. All of his pitches have more velocity, and his secondary pitches remain as nasty as ever. He’ll want to induce more ground balls, but those will come when people start connecting with his stuff that lands outside the zone (Due to early season SSS noise, his O-Contact% is just 40%). I don’t expect him to continue to post a 2.13 ERA, or even a 3.12 (xFIP), but sub-4 doesn’t seem out of the question. At the very least, he should outperform his FantasyPros ECR of 134.
Andre Ethier (.289 AVE, 3 HR, 15 RBI): Ethier is in a contract year, which usually results in a player’s bat finding more juice than usual. Last season, Andre disappointed in 135 games with 11 HRs and 62 RBI, despite his 30 game hitting streak early in the season. The low production had mostly to do with a knee injury that had to get cleaned up, and was bothering him for much of the year. This season, he is completely healthy and red hot as he has already matched all of last season’s April totals in the HR/RBI department. It also helps that he is batting cleanup behind the best player in baseball right now, Matt Kemp.
Between Dee Gordon being able to get in scoring position every time he is on base, and Matt Kemp being in scoring position at least once a game, Ethier should have plenty of opportunities to possibly surpass his career year where he hit: 31 HRs, 106 RBIs with a .271 Average. I would hold out for him being able to match those totals.
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That wraps up this edition of Featured Pros’ advice. Thanks to the Pros for chiming in with their opinions. Please visit each expert’s site and follow them on Twitter for additional insight to help you win your leagues.
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