Giovani Bernard was the first RB off the board (CIN) on Thurs. His versatility should be an asset for fantasy owners.
7.7 million people. That’s how many tuned in on Thursday night just to watch the first round of the NFL draft. For those keeping score at home, that’s more than double the amount of viewers of last year’s Stanley Cup Finals. It’s also better than 3 times the audience of any NBA playoff game from the same night. In other words, there’s no stopping the train that is the NFL right now.
Of course, the fun only continues now that we know where each rookie will be lacing up in 2013. With rookie drafts on the horizon, now’s the time to get advice about potential additions to your squad. With that in mind, below are opinions from 3 experts on who to target (and avoid) from this year’s rookie crop.
Featured Pros
Alessandro Miglio (Pro Football Focus)
Derek Lofland (Fantasy Football Maniax)
Q1: Zero RBs were selected in the draft’s 1st round but that doesn’t mean there are a shortage of capable rookie backs. If you’re picking in a rookie draft, who would be your top RB target and why?
Kevin Hanson – EDSFootball
The experts agree that Bernard is set to do damage in Cincy.
Giovani Bernard (CIN): Although he is not the biggest back, Bernard was the first running back selected in the draft and has great vision, excellent speed and is a good receiver out of the backfield. Some of his comparisons at the next level have included Ray Rice and Brian Westbrook. While I prefer Le’Veon Bell in redraft leagues for this year, Bernard is a more talented back and I prefer him over Bell long-term. The other rookie backs have their share of concerns: Eddie Lacy (injury history, presence of Johnathan Franklin), Montee Ball (huge college workload, lack of elite skills), etc.
Alessandro Miglio – Pro Football Focus
Giovani Bernard (CIN): My top target would be Bernard, the best back in the best situation coming out of the draft. BenJarvus Green-Ellis will likely be the short-yardage guy in the short term, but Bernard could have some big fantasy seasons down the line.
Marcus Lattimore, Montee Ball, Stepfan Taylor, & LeVeon Bell are also good names to consider if you are picking at the back of the first round in rookie drafts. Lattimore is most certainly a stash—don’t expect him to even suit up this season—while Taylor & Bell could be the best running backs on their teams heading into the season.
Derek Lofland – Fantasy Football Maniax
Giovani Bernard (CIN): Head Coach Marvin Lewis has been in Cincinnati 10 years; seven of those ten seasons he has had a 1,000 yard rusher. The Bengals openly stated they are looking to decrease the carries of RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis this year and they confirmed that they are serious about that when they selected Bernard in the second round. He is going to see significant time early and his home run hitting ability should allow him to become more involved in the offense as the season progresses. It all adds up to him being a great candidate to be the leading fantasy rusher among rookies.
Q2: Tavon Austin (STL) is widely considered to be the #1 fantasy WR from this year’s rookie crop. Outside of Austin, which WR has the best chance of growing into a WR1?
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): The first receiver selected in the first round by the Texans since Andre Johnson, Hopkins should see a lot of single-coverage opportunities early in his career, which even bodes well for his short-term outlook. Overshadowing Sammy Watkins, who could be a top-10 pick in next year’s draft, Hopkins has great hands and is the most polished route-runner among rookies this year. Last year, he had 82 receptions for 1,405 yards and 18 touchdowns.
Alessandro Miglio – Pro Football Focus
Stedman Bailey (STL): There are a few wide receivers out of this draft with the potential to become solid fantasy contributors. I actually love Austin’s teammate, Stedman Bailey—he was one of my favorite fantasy sleepers heading into the draft, though it might be tougher for him to get those points with Austin, Chris Givens and Brian Quick competing for targets.
DeAndre Hopkins has an excellent shot down the line as Andre Johnson ages; he should even be viable as a bench guy as a rookie. Keenan Allen was widely viewed as the top receiving prospect at the beginning of draft season, but his knee injury and off-field rumors killed his draft stock. He could actually be a big rookie contributor with the Chargers. I also loved Cordarrelle Patterson coming out of college. He reminded me of a bigger Percy Harvin. Not coincidentally, he landed with the Vikings.
Derek Lofland – Fantasy Football Maniax
Aaron Dobson (NE): This is a combination of a very solid prospect going to one of the best offensive systems with one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL (Tom Brady). Dobson is already projected to replace departed veteran WR Brandon Lloyd in the starting lineup; Lloyd was targeted 130 times last year. Dobson will have a chance to play early, but not be the focal point of the offense. That gives him the potential to put up meaningful numbers in his rookie season while not being the center of attention in the offense. He should be able to grow into a WR1 in 2-3 seasons.
Q3: Alfred Morris was a steal last season despite flying under the radar as a 5th round pick. Name 1 rookie that has the best shot to be a surprise stud this season.
5th rounder Zac Stacy could get immediate playing time in STL.
Zac Stacy (RB – STL): Compared to other late-round running backs in this year’s draft, Stacy is likely to be the one that gets the most opportunities with his respective team. It’s not out of the question that Stacy, who has back-to-back seasons with 1,100-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns in the SEC, leads the Rams in touches. Although he is not tall (5-8), Stacy is a big back (216 pounds) and powerful (27 reps on bench press at the combine) and could also see the goal-line carries.
Alessandro Miglio – Pro Football Focus
Zac Stacy (RB – STL): There are a couple of names, but Zac Stacy rings truest for me. The Human Pinball is practically a Doug Martin clone coming out of Vanderbilt. He wasn’t much of a pass-catcher in college, the biggest difference between him and Dougie Howser. He landed with the Rams, where former second-round pick Isaiah Pead couldn’t even get playing time over latter-round rookie Daryl Richardson. Stacy has a shot to be the horse when the season begins.
Derek Lofland – Fantasy Football Maniax
Andre Ellington (RB – ARI): With the Cardinals trading for veteran QB Carson Palmer, their running backs should have less defenders crowding the box and more opportunities to tally yards and score touchdowns. Yet, the most established running back on the roster is Rashard Mendenhall, who signed a one-year contract this off-season. Ellington was a very productive player the last three years at Clemson, but his hamstring issues both at the end of this season and in the draft evaluation process caused him to fall to the sixth round. If he can stay healthy, there is no entrenched starter on the Cardinals. He could fly under the radar and suddenly become a player that earns a starting job and surprises in fantasy leagues this year.
Q4: If you had to caution fantasy owners from overvaluing a particular player in their rookie drafts, who would it be?
Cordarrelle Patterson (WR – MIN): There are plenty of things to like about Patterson: his size (6-2, 216), athleticism (4.42 forty) and run-after-catch ability. That said, Patterson has a lot of work to do as a route runner, often catches ball with his body and may struggle picking up an NFL offense. He’s a perfect example of a boom-or-bust player.
Alessandro Miglio – Pro Football Focus
E.J. Manuel (QB – BUF): Given the rise of the rookie quarterback, E.J. Manuel is the easy choice here. There won’t be many good fantasy options at rookie quarterback this season, but Manuel figures to grab the starting spot in Buffalo right away. Much like Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson—even Andrew Luck to a certain degree—Manuel has wheels and is a threat to score points on the ground. But he is not nearly as good or polished coming out of college.
Derek Lofland – Fantasy Football Maniax
Eddie Lacy (RB – GB): Usually a second round pick at running back means a player can expect to earn the starting job, especially on a team with no entrenched starter. Do not necessarily jump to the conclusion that second round pick Lacy is the automatic starter in Green Bay. The Packers also drafted UCLA RB Johnathan Franklin in the fourth round. Franklin projects as an every down back and some draft gurus have been comparing him to Ray Rice. It is very likely that they share time or that Franklin could possibly beat out Lacy. Lacy is a very risky pick in fantasy leagues until it is determined which running back is the best fit for the Packers going forward.
—
Thanks to the Featured Pros for stopping by to share their advice. Now it’s our readers’ turn…which player would you take with pick 1.01 in your rookie draft? Let us know in the comments!