Dynasty: Which Rookies are Undervalued/Overvalued?

It’s mid-May and that means rookie drafts for dynasty leagues are in full swing. We recently unveiled our consensus rookie rankings for this year’s draft crop. Unlike past seasons, there’s not necessarily a clear-cut #1 player to select (4 different players are receiving votes for the #1 ranking). With fewer obvious high-end studs, it’s safe to say that this year’s group is tougher than past rookie classes to evaluate.

The good news is this gives skilled owners a chance to take advantage of the uncertainty. To help out in that regard, we’ve asked our Featured Pros to share advice about this year’s potential rookie steals and overvalued players.

Summary: Dynasty Rookie Advice

Q1: Name the rookie you think is most undervalued by the Expert Consensus and tell us what you like about his outlook.

Aaron Dobson (WR – NE)

Expert Consensus: #17 Rookie

“I’m probably even guilty of undervaluing Dobson a bit, but as the season draws closer he’ll jump up my rankings. The fact remains that he’s got a great size/speed package and he’s on an explosive New England offense. He has the potential to be a terror as a rookie and has major long-term upside.” – Kevin Roberts (NFL Soup)

“For the most undervalued player in dynasty drafts this year, I will take Patriots WR Aaron Dobson. With a current ADP of 18 in rookie only drafts, he is a steal. When it comes to rookies, I tend to look at players with massive upside in a high powered offense. Most won’t start off the bat, but Dobson has the opportunity to win the starting job with his only competition being Michael Jenkins and Donald Jones. At 6’3″ with a 4.40 forty, Dobson comes with as much upside as anyone in this class because of his situation.” – Mike Tagliere (Tags Fantasy Football)

Zac Stacy (RB -STL)

Expert Consensus: #15 Rookie

“Neither Daryl Richardson nor Isaiah Pead possesses the features necessary to fill the massive void vacated by Steven Jackson. On the other hand, fifth round selection Zac Stacy has both the size and experience to hold up as a feature back after carrying the ball 408 times in his last two years at Vanderbilt. Stacy actually thrived from having an increased workload, averaging a full yard per carry more in the spotlight than as a backup. Richardson and Pead can’t say the same. The Rams will likely use a committee run game in 2013 but Stacy already seems like the most viable high capacity replacement for Jackson going forward.” – Sean Morris (Bruno Boys)

Charles Johnson (WR – GB):

Expert Consensus: #42 Rookie

“Truly undervalued with an eye on the future beyond 2013, I think Green Bay’s WR Charles Johnson fits that bill as he ranks 42nd overall on the list. Johnson played at a small school college because of off-field issues that are hopefully behind him. Johnson has the prototypical size at 6’2″, 215 lbs, and great speed (4.36 in the 40) that are the trademarks of the strong WR1s in both fantasy football and the NFL. In Green Bay, he’ll start off as being no higher than 4th on the depth chart in 2013, but with James Jones in the last year of his contract this season and Jordy Nelson’s up after 2014, Johnson has a chance to ascend to a starting job in another year or two.” – Russ Bliss (Fantasy Football Starters)

Le’Veon Bell (RB – PIT)

Expert Consensus: #4 Rookie

I know, I know. Bell is top five in most rankings but I consider him undervalued because I believe he should be the top ranked rookie. Bell has the size, speed and most importantly the three down skill set to be an immediate impact fantasy RB. With little competition for touches in the Steelers’ backfield he will be the workhorse RB that Todd Haley likes to ride. St Louis will need to invent ways to get the speedy Tavon Austin the ball while Pittsburgh can simply hand it (or utilize his above average receiving abilities) to the big back from Michigan State.” – Wally Spurlin (Fantasy Sharks)

Q2: Name the rookie you feel is most overvalued by the Expert Consensus and tell us why you feel that way.

Cordarrelle Patterson (WR – MIN)

Expert Consensus: #6 Rookie

“A top six rookie ranking is too high for the kid from Tennessee. While Patterson is explosively quick and capable of being a game changer he is also very raw with only one season of Division I football. He is also playing for a run first (and realistically run second) team that just signed a legit number one receiver in Greg Jennings. Oh yeah, I’m not exactly enamored with the QBs that could possibly be throwing to Patterson either.” – Wally Spurlin (Fantasy Sharks)

Eddie Lacy (RB – GB)

Expert Consensus: #3 Rookie

“There is no denying Lacy’s talent but the hamstring and foot problems he has experienced are injuries that sit firmly atop the running back red flag list. The Packers appear to be as concerned as anyone so they drafted UCLA’s workhorse Jonathan Franklin a round later. Franklin would give Lacy a run for his money any day so it’s tough to justify heavily investing in Lacy’s long term prospects right now. Additionally, as proven before, Mike McCarthy’s fragile running back super-committee is the last thing you can rely on for short or long term fantasy value anyway.” – Sean Morris (Bruno Boys)

Robert Woods (WR – BUF)

Expert Consensus: #12 Rookie

“I am not a believer in Buffalo WR Robert Woods ever having high fantasy value. For him to rank 12th overall on the list is way too high as he isn’t dynamic enough of a player to be more than a WR2 in the NFL, and probably no better than a WR3 in fantasy football at any point of his career. There are much better candidates to be a WR1 for both fantasy and in the NFL from this rookie class that rank lower than him. It’s not that Woods won’t be a decent NFL player, but he’s got little chance to ever make a meaningful fantasy impact. I think another rookie WR in Buffalo (undrafted Da’Rick Rogers) has a much better chance to become fantasy relevant in a couple of years than Woods.” – Russ Bliss (Fantasy Football Starters)

Tavon Austin (WR – STL)

Expert Consensus: #2 Rookie

“My pick for most overvalued rookie would be none other than Rams WR Tavon Austin. While everyone is looking for the next receiver that will dominate the NFL, I don’t believe Austin will be any more than a WR3 in fantasy leagues. His Dynasty ADP is around 27 for WRs right now and rising, which is borderline WR2 territory come draft day. He is another version of DeSean Jackson and will be drafted too high for my liking. He will very often be a boom or bust receiver and cause more headaches than celebrations.” – Mike Tagliere (Tags Fantasy Football)

Christine Michael (RB – SEA)

Expert Consensus: #18 Rookie

“Don’t get me wrong; Michael is a special talent. However, he’s buried behind Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin right now, and there’s no telling how long that will last. If he has an actual role, he’d sky-rocket up my rankings.” – Kevin Roberts (NFL Soup)

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Thanks to the Featured Pros for stopping by to share their rookie advice. If you’d like to get more insight from the experts, be sure to visit their sites and follow them on Twitter:

Russ Bliss | @FFStarters

Kevin Roberts | @NFLSoupKevin

Walton Spurlin | @WaltonSpurlin

Mike Tagliere | @TagsFantasyFB

Sean Morris | @BrunoBoysMorris

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