Danario Alexander was a late-season stud for fantasy owners in 2012. This season he’ll be on IR.
It’s a new week and the WR injuries are continuing to pile up. We’re only 1 game into the preseason (as of this writing) and the following wideouts have already been shelved with significant injuries: Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Jordy Nelson, Danario Alexander, Arrelious Benn, and Joe Morgan.
Needless to say, the infirmary is getting a little crowded. It goes without saying that this poses some important questions for fantasy owners. We’ll examine the impact of the latest injuries (Alexander/Nelson/Morgan) with the help of this week’s featured experts.
Q1: How does the season-ending injury for Danario Alexander impact your valuation of Vincent Brown & Malcom Floyd? Tell us what round you would now target each in a standard draft.
Brown is one of my favorite late round breakout candidates, with the perfect skill set for new head coach Mike McCoy’s quick-strike offense. At his current ADP (10th round), Brown is an excellent value, but his price will almost certainly surge over the next month. I draw the line in the middle of the 8th round, where I would much rather have Josh Gordon or Mike Williams. As for Floyd, he is the type of low-upside receiver you should avoid in drafts. The veteran is a poor fit in San Diego’s new system and the Chargers will likely give rookie Keenan Allen more playing time as the season goes on.
Bryan Fontaine (Pro Football Focus)
You have to feel sorry for Alexander after he tore his right ACL in training camp. We’ve probably seen him play his last down in the NFL because of the numerous knee injuries he has sustained since college. This locks in Vincent Brown as a starter for certain and Malcom Floyd won’t have to fight to retain his job on the outside. Brown has been penciled in as starter for some time, so my valuation of him remains unchanged. He’ll be second in line for targets most weeks. Brown has been a popular sleeper before this news, so I’m likely to pass on him if his ADP goes before the 11th round. Floyd becomes an interesting addition late in a draft. I was able to land him in the 15th round of a draft that occurred after the Alexander injury.
Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl)
Brown is at WR53 for me, and if I moved him at all after the Alexander injury, it was only by a spot or two. I’ve actually moved Floyd from WR63 to WR48, jumping him ahead of Brown. My thinking — and admittedly, this is more gut than cranial output — is that with Alexander in the lineup, Brown was likely to get more snaps than Floyd. But now, with Brown and Floyd both likely to start and get ample time, I give Floyd a slight edge in production. Still, I don’t see either as anything more than a fourth receiver in a 12-team league. Youth might give Brown the higher ceiling, but stardom is not his destiny.
Q2: How much do you downgrade Jordy Nelson (out for the preseason) given that he could be back in action by week 1?
Bryan Fontaine (Pro Football Focus)
I would downgrade Jordy Nelson slightly based on the news of his surgery. Conservatively you can peg him to miss two games this year, and it doesn’t dampen his outlook that much. If you can stomach not having Nelson to start the season, he’s a great bet to log 4-5 catches a week for 60+ yards and about a 50 percent chance of a touchdown catch. To me, if you discount him a round per game missed, he becomes a must draft in the sixth round of your draft.
Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl)
Nelson’s knee surgery has me spooked, particularly in light of his knee and hamstring issues last year. I’ve dropped him from WR17 to WR30. As a target round, the seventh round seems about right. More likely he’ll go somewhere in the late fifth or early sixth to a less risk-averse owner. My deodorant would give out if I took Nelson at that point — I’m talking major flop sweat.
While Nelson’s pre-season surgery is making headlines, savvy fantasy owners should be seeing an opportunity for value. The Packers seem hopeful that their best receiver will play in Week 1, but even if he does miss a game or two, Nelson will return early in the year as a low-end WR1. Prior to going under the knife, I was willing to take Nelson in the third round and I am still confident he will deliver a big season, so if he falls into the fourth round or later I will gladly take advantage. With the depth at wide receiver, you can easily find a replacement for the first two weeks – Lance Moore, Michael Floyd, or even Vincent Brown would be ideal.
Q3: With Joe Morgan going down for the Saints, who do you like to step into the No. 3 WR role in New Orleans and will that player have any fantasy relevance?
Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl)
Meh. The Devery Henderson Memorial No. 3 WR spot in New Orleans has long been a figurehead position in fantasy terms. As a Wisconsin alumnus, I’m pulling for Nick Toon to win the No. 3 job, but Kenny Stills has the speed to be a field-stretching decoy à la Devery. Either way, the new No. 3 will settle for a few meager orts from Drew Brees’ table. No fantasy relevance here.
Bryan Fontaine (Pro Football Focus)
Losing Joe Morgan will hurt the Saints. They were counting him to be their deep threat with Devery Henderson leaving for the Redskins. Let’s not get too crazy here though. Morgan was going to be lucky to be the fifth or sixth receiving option on the team – possibly even lower than Pierre Thomas after Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, Marques Colston and Lance Moore. New signee Steve Breaston is the likely candidate to fill Morgan’s role because he has a track record in the NFL. Nick Toon would be the other logical choice, but missed his entire rookie season due to injury. Toon likely has more upside, but only as the primary backup to Colston because of their similar size and skill set. Breaston then makes the most sense but can be ignored in most league formats.
Last year, Drew Brees threw for 5,177 yards and 43 touchdowns; impressive stats for a guy that was missing his offensive-minded head coach. After Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Lance Moore and Darren Sproles took their significant slices of the pie, the next highest total posted by a wide receiver was 22 catches or 379 yards. In addition, the talk out of New Orleans is that Sean Payton plans to restore the team’s running game, which could mean fewer pass attempts for Brees. Whether it’s Kenny Stills (my choice), veteran Steve Breaston or even Devery Henderson getting cut by the Redskins and returning to the Big Easy, the Saints’ offense won’t support a fifth receiving star in 2013.
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Thanks to Bryan, Pat and Justin for stopping by to give us their opinions on the latest injury news. You can get more of their advice by visiting their sites and by following them on Twitter:
| Bryan Fontaine | Follow @Bryan_Fontaine |
| Pat Fitzmaurice | Follow @FitzPFW |
| Justin Boone | Follow @justinboone |
