The Miami D/ST cracks the top tiers
Dylan Lerch has been writing his Defense Wins Championships column for three straight seasons, and each installment can be found at Empeopled.com every Tuesday morning. You can follow him @dtlerch.
For most of us, the fantasy football season is officially over. An unlucky few may be sweating stat corrections for the next couple of days, but everyone else should now know their fate.
Unless you play into the wacky world of Week 17!
This is a place where Case Keenum is the Texans QB, Logan Thomas is the Cardinals QB, and you can’t quite be sure which starters will still be playing into the second half. Week 17 is the perfect example of when using Vegas to ground our projections is the safest way to go: sports books hang lines on all of these games, and so we can always use them to make sure we have the correct expectations for some of these unknowns.
Week 17 D/ST Scoring (ESPN Standard)
*The projections lean heavily on the work of Vegas oddsmakers to get a realistic idea of a raw scoring expectation for each team. Then, the normal D/ST components (sacks, turnovers, and D/ST touchdowns) are projected based on matchup and combined with Vegas to come up with a final number. The projection represents an “Expected Value,” or the weighted sum of all outcomes across the scoring range.
- Seattle Seahawks D/ST, 12.2 points vs St. Louis
- Houston Texans D/ST, 11.4 vs Jacksonville
- Denver Broncos D/ST, 10.0 vs Oakland
- San Francisco 49ers D/ST, 9.9 vs Arizona
- Baltimore Ravens D/ST, 9.8 vs Cleveland
- Miami Dolphins D/ST, 9.1 vs New York Jets
- Kansas City Chiefs D/ST, 8.3 vs San Diego
- Indianapolis Colts D/ST, 8.2 at Tennessee
- New England Patriots D/ST, 8.2 vs Buffalo
- Green Bay Packers D/ST, 7.4 vs Detroit
- Minnesota Vikings D/ST, 7.3 vs Chicago
- Atlanta Falcons D/ST, 6.1 vs Carolina
- Arizona Cardinals D/ST, 5.8 at San Francisco
- New York Giants D/ST, 5.4 vs Philadelphia
- Dallas Cowboys D/ST, 5.1 at Washington
- Carolina Panthers D/ST, 4.8 at Atlanta
- Chicago Bears D/ST, 4.5 at Minnesota
- New Orleans Saints D/ST, 4.4 at Tampa Bay
- Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST, 4.4 vs Cincinnati
- San Diego Chargers D/ST, 4.3 at Kansas City
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST, 4.0 vs New Orleans
- Cleveland Browns D/ST, 3.6 at Baltimore
- Philadelphia Eagles D/ST, 3.2 at New York Giants
- St. Louis Rams D/ST, 3.2 at Seattle
- Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST, 3.0 at Houston
- New York Jets D/ST, 3.0 at Miami
- Cincinnati Bengals D/ST, 2.2 at Pittsburgh
- Tennessee Titans D/ST, 1.6 vs Indianapolis
- Washington Redskins D/ST, 1.2 vs Dallas
- Buffalo Bills D/ST, 0.6 at New England
- Detroit Lions D/ST, 0.3 at Green Bay
- Oakland Raiders D/ST, -1.9 at Denver
As always, I like to use the projection in tandem with common sense, home/road splits, and the eye test. I would use the following start order to break down the top 12:
- Seattle (Tier 1)
- Houston (Tier 1)
At this point, we have enough of a sample size on virtually every team. These rankings really shouldn’t be much of a surprise for either team! Seattle is playing like the best defense in the league, and statistically is at or near the top even with their sluggish start. They get the St. Louis Rams at home, and with an 11-4 record that’s shared with 4 other teams, they have plenty to play for. A win would lock up a first round bye. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans have playoff hopes alive as well, and they’ve got another excellent matchup at home too. Even without a great supporting cast, J.J. Watt is easily and obviously the most valuable D/ST player in the entire league.
- Baltimore (Tier 2)
- Denver (Tier 2)
- San Francisco (Tier 2)
All three of these teams have great home matchups. The 49ers don’t have anything to play for as far as playoffs are concerned, and so they sit at the bottom of this tier, but they’ve been a decent scoring D/ST even through their struggles. Logan Thomas is not good enough to scare me away from them!
The Raiders might scare some people away after last week, but I don’t think that would be wise. They’re on the road instead of at home, and they’re still clearly a decent matchup on the season for opposing D/STs (#6 on the season). This is the tier 2 play to make if you just want a safe, low-upside, low-risk play.
The Ravens are my favorite of the tier 2 plays. They played far better than the scoreboard showed on Sunday, holding Houston to 1 TD (thrown by Arian Foster!) and 6 Randy Bullock field goals.
- Miami (Tier 2.5)
Miami scares me a little. They’ve got nothing to play for, and they’ve been playing pretty poorly of late. They’ve got a great matchup, but Vegas doesn’t have a ton of confidence in Miami winning and neither do I. They’re favored, but by only 5.5. If possible I would stay away, but many of us won’t have that luxury.
- New England (Tier 3)
- Indianapolis (Tier 3)
- Kansas City (Tier 3)
Indianapolis sits at second in the tier even though they’re on the road. New England sits at first even though they’re locked into the first seed. The Patriots would probably be significantly higher if this game were played last week! The Chiefs are simply not very good, but being at home is enough for them to sneak into the top tiers.
- Green Bay (Tier 4)
- Minnesota (Tier 4)
- Atlanta (Tier 4)
Green Bay is the one team that ranks a lot lower than I would have expected. If someone were to rank them as high as third, I wouldn’t argue with them too much. However, while I have zero faith in the Detroit offense this week, Vegas has the game as a relatively high-scoring affair for both teams, and that sinks the Packers slightly in the rankings. To be fair, they still project well above average anyway.
To everybody who has already won their leagues, congrats!
To everybody who is playing in Week 17, good luck!
For everybody else… better luck next year?
As always, thank you for reading, and a huge thank you for all of the love and support all season long. The offseason is a welcome change for now, but I’ll be itching for football to return before too long!
