Brett Hundley is an intriguing prospect for dynasty players
The NFL combine is a strange thing. Designed to prevent redundancies of the three major scouting services in the 1980’s, it’s evolved into a highly viewed, televised event. Despite being vocally dismissed as having little to no actual value on predicting future NFL success, it impacts how the media depicts players. Regardless of your views on the combine, here are (in my opinion) the medalists, and under-performers, at the 2015 “underwear Olympics.”
Quarterback
GOLD: Marcus Mariota
SILVER: Brett Hundley
BRONZE: Bryce Petty
Mariota, a consensus top 10 pick, didn’t exceed expectations in Indianapolis, but he didn’t raise a single red flag either. Measurements wise, Mariota looks the part at 6’4 222 , and also has above average hand size measuring in a 9 7/8. Physically, Mariota is a top candidate to pick up those rushing yards fantasy managers covet right away.
Another QB that showed that he’s going to be a top scrambler was Brett Hundley. While his 4.63 40-yard dash time wasn’t as impressive as Mariota’s 4.52, he proved that he has rare acceleration, posting a 3.98 20-yard shuttle, which is within the top 1% of all shuttles run by QB’s at the combine. Hundley’s shuttle was 2nd fastest among (tied with Amari Cooper) all skill position players at the entire combine, trailing only Ameer Abdullah. As a bonus, Hundley has a tremendous hand size, placing in the 96th percentile according to mockdraftable.com. All told, he’s a mighty interesting pick in dynasty formats.
Outside of Mariota and Hundley, there wasn’t anyone else who jumped off the page, but Bryce Petty proved that he isn’t a sitting duck in the pocket. Petty ran a somewhat unimpressive 4.87 40, but showed good athleticism elsewhere, posting a 121” broad jump, 6.91 3 cone, and 4.13 20-yard shuttle. Petty is an interesting developmental candidate who isn’t going to post huge totals on the ground, but has the physical tools to extend plays.
LOSERS: Sean Mannion, Shane Carden and Jameis Winston
While Sean Mannion has tremendous traditional size (6’6, 229), he’s going to have to overcome some of the smallest hands in the NFL (9” or 4th percentile) to achieve success. While physical ability at quarterback isn’t the biggest factor in determining success, Mannion showed that he’s comparatively un-athletic, posting a 5.14 40-yard dash, and testing below the 44th percentile in all the other categories. You can safely write him off for fantasy purposes.
Shane Carden had major concerns about his physical ability during draft season, and he did nothing but confirm them at the combine. He measured small (6’2, 218, 9 ¾ hands), and tested slow. He’s another one to write off in regards to fantasy football.
Now for a prospect that you don’t want to write off, but you may want to cool your jets on. Jameis Winston didn’t completely tank the combine, but he proved that the odds are stacked against him producing QB1 seasons for quite some time. While it’s exceedingly rare for a rookie QB to crack the top 14 in single season fantasy points, those that do are QBs who can gain yards on scrambles and designed runs, which seems like something Winston won’t ever be able to do. Posting below average results in every single drill he performed in, it’s safe to say scramble-grade athleticism isn’t a part of Winston’s game. He’s going to have to make it as a pure pocket passer, and even the best pocket passers (Peyton and Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers) aren’t fantasy relevant immediately out of the gate.
Running Back
GOLD: David Johnson
SILVER: Ameer Abdullah
BRONZE: Zach Zenner
The main riser at the running back position over the weekend was Northern Iowa’s David Johnson. In addition to posting one of the fastest 40 times (4.5 seconds) among RBs, Johnson finished with tremendous marks in lateral agility (6.82 three cone) and strength (25 reps) testing. He’s got feature back size at 6’1 224, rare explosion (127″ broad , 41 vertical jumps), and should be selected before some more heralded options from bigger programs.
While Ameer Abdullah may be easily dismissed at first glance due to his size (5’9, 205), or his speed (4.6 40-yard dash time), use this to your advantage, as his combine performance was off-the-charts good. Abdullah demonstrated tremendous strength for the position by posting 24 bench reps, and then proceeded to destroy the explosion and agility portions of testing. In fact, all of Abdullah’s agility and explosion scores were so good, they were 89th percentile and above. While it remains to be seen if he can be a 20+ carry back at the next level, Abdullah is in a class of his own in terms of agility and explosiveness. If you were going to have to pick one back to overcome any size related obstacle, Abdullah is proving to be the one to pick.
Johnson and Abudllah were both projected to be second-day picks going into the combine, but it’s my opinion that Zach Zenner put himself in a position where he is going to be drafted this weekend. He has the chance to make some noise in the NFL. The former South Dakota State Jackrabbit showed impressive vertical and lateral explosion, posting marks of 41′ and 121″ in the vertical and broad jumps, and was a top-10 performer among running backs in every single drill. Zenner has lead-back size at 5’11, 223 pounds, and needs to be monitored in dynasty formats.
LOSERS: Dee Hart, Jahwan Edwards and Braylon Heard
Hart and Heard went into the combine as undersized backs needing to test well athletically to garner fantasy relevance, both however flopped tremendously. Click on the links from mockdraftable.com for more details, but Heard finished in the bottom 38% or worse in every metric, and Hart has in the bottom 27%. It’s tremendously difficult to make it at the highest level when you are both relatively small and slow, and the deck is stacked against these two. In Heard’s case it sets off some major alarm bells as he was described as having “exceptional foot quickness and athleticism.”
Jahwan Edwards came into the combine something of a sleeper, and left as a player who most likely will not be drafted. Measuring in at a bowling-ballesque 5’9, 22o pounds, while Edwards could theoretically carry the load in the NFL, his combine performance left scouts wondering if you’d actually want him anywhere near the field. While he posted middling numbers in both the broad and vertical jumps, his 3 cone, 40-yard dash, both his 20- and 60-yard shuttle’s placed him at best in the bottom 5% of all the backs in the mockdraftable.com database. Teams that were once high on Edwards will be going over his film again, and right now his stock is plummeting.
Wide Receiver
GOLD: Sammie Coates
SILVER: Kevin White
BRONZE: Kenny Bell
Sammie Coates did not accomplish his mission of breaking all the records at the combine, he firmly established himself as the most athletic WR in the class of 2015. He did not run in the 4.3 range as expected in the 40-yard dash, coming in with a respectable 4.43 time, but his extremely impressive 4.06 20-yard shuttle shows that he gets to top speed instantly. His performance in the bench press and both jumps were both in the top 10% of all receivers in the mockdraftable.com database, showing he’s going to be nearly unstoppable in contested catch situations, if he can learn proper technique. If any receiver is going to have a season comparable to Martavis Bryant, it’s going to be Coates.
Kevin White firmly cemented himself as a top-10 pick with a tremendous combine, and is someone you may want to take a chance on in redraft formats. Measuring in at an above-average 6’3, 215, White unexpectedly blazed a 4.35 40-yard dash, quieting any concerns about his speed. The former Mountaineer proved he wasn’t just a straight-line athlete as well, posting respectable numbers in the jumps, the 3 cone, and the shuttles, especially for a man of his size. He’s going to make a lot of sense for some WR-needy teams at the top of the draft, and may end up going as high as Oakland at No. 4 overall.
All and all it was a great weekend for the WR group, as Chris Conley showed tremendous speed and leaping ability, as did Jaelen Strong. Phillip Dorsett didn’t break the combine record for the 40-yard dash, but was still impressive. But the receiver who stood out to me was Nebraska WR Kenny Bell. Bell is an extremely lanky 6’1 197, but showed that he’s explosive and agile, posting great scores in the 3 cone, and jumping portions of the combine. If he can put on some good weight, he’s got a shot to be a really interesting contributor, and is someone you want to monitor in the late rounds of your dynasty drafts.
LOSERS: Ezell Ruffin, Josh Harper and Donatella Luckett
It’s a bit melancholy to think that this may be the last time Ezell Ruffin is ever mentioned in a fantasy article, but the smart money is you’ll never hear his name again in that context. He may be a bit heavier/stronger than average, but he’s nowhere big enough to overcome his completely dreadful combine weekend. If the combine is any reflection on Ruffin’s true athletic talent, I highly doubt Ruffin is even going to be relevant in arena football league formats.
While Devin Funchess recorded the slowest 40 time of all the receivers, he gets a pass for his track record/adjusting for size, and all and all, Donatella Luckett had a much worse combine. Needing to overcome a small-school background and middling size, Luckett posted an uimpressive 4.65 40-yard dash, and topped that off with horrid 7.51 3 cone drill. His draft stock is dropping and he’s a third-day pick at best.
Possibly the highest regarded receiver who duffed the combine was Fresno State’s Josh Harper. His main knock before the combine was being unathletic, and he did nothing to disprove that criticism this weekend. You won’t go broke betting against slow (4.64 40 time), straight-line (7.15 three cone), ground-bound (32″ vertical, 108″ broad jump) receivers, especially those who are 6’1 191 pounds.
Tight End
GOLD: McCoyle Pruitt
SILVER: Jesse James
BRONZE: Wes Saxton
It’s shaping up to be an extremely thin TE class, as Wes Saxton is going to only be considered a winner due to the fact that his competition did not show up at all. The TE out of South Alabama posted very interesting long speed/jump numbers (4.65 40-yard dash, 36″ vertical, jump), but is severely undersized for the position, and left a lot to be desired in his shuttle times. Despite his drawbacks, Saxton is one to keep on your deep league watch-lists.
In contrast to Saxton’s interesting but flawed combine, McCoyle Pruitt’s times were good enough that it’s not out of the question that he, not Devin Funchess, should be moved to WR. While Saxton posted good speed/jumping results, Pruitt was great, posting a 4.58 40-yard dash and a 38″ vertical jump. He showed up well in both the 20- and 60-yard shuttle. Despite being short for the position at 6’2, his above average arm length (33 1/2 inches) and hand size (10 1/4 inches) help mitigate some of his relative deficiency. If Pruitt can get on the field he’ll be a very interesting fantasy option, and is one to consider in the late rounds of your dynasty drafts.
In sharp contrast to the speed merchants Saxton and Pruitt, former Penn State Nittany Lion Jesse James is somewhat slow, posting a unimpressive but not deal-breaking 4.83 40-yard dash. Taken out of context, his speed is unimpressive, but with a 6’7 261 pound frame, James has the size necessary to win battles for the ball for years to come. In addition to being huge, he posted a tremendous 37 1/2″ vertical, and also impressed in the broad jump at 121″. James most likely will not be a week-to-week consistent fantasy producer, but his combine numbers could foreshadow a very interesting career as a red-zone option.
Losers: Danny Boyle, Nick O’Leary and Jean Sirfin
It wasn’t all bad for former Delware Blue-Hen Nick Boyle, as he posted very good shuttle times, and checks in at a hefty 6’4 268 pounds, but my oh my, when Larry Donnell can beat you in a 40-yard race, your fantasy prospects are grim. Running a 5.04 40-yard dash with a 30 inch vertical does not bode well for Boyle ever becoming a fantasy option.
It started off horrible and got no better for the former Seminole, as O’Leary measured an unimpressive 6’3 252, but even worse, he has some of the shortest arms ever for an NFL tight end. Then he proceeded to run a 4.93 40-yard dash, and was terrible in the shuttle and jump drills as well. It’s safe to drop him off your dynasty draft boards.
When a player like Jean Sirfin has his athletic ability labeled as a strength, and then turns in a performance like he did this weekend, a major red flag is raised. Sirfin did not post above-average test scores on any drill this weekend, and you may want to think twice about drafting the already 27-year-old prospect in dynasty formats.
Brian Tesch is a former AmeriCorps VISTA and current happy-go-lucky Economics student by day, FantasyPros NFC West Division Leader by later in the day.
You can check out his archive, and if you so choose, follow him on Twitter @TheRealTesch.
