Dennis Esser provides his early top ten wide receiver rankings.
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Off season rankings are not just for dynasty fantasy football any longer. With more and more sites allowing year round best ball and redraft leagues the struggle is real for owners when it comes to information and rankings. Lucky for you my fantasy football season never ends as I’m constantly tweaking and perfecting my rankings as new information pours in. Now let’s take a look at my early top ten rankings at the wide receiver position.
1. Antonio Brown Pittsburgh Steelers
Brown is peaking folks. He is entering his age 27 season with a quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger who is in complete control of the Steelers offense. Brown has been the exception to the rule of the tall wide receiver dominating the NFL and has done it with lightning quickness and incredible hands. His two year average of 119.5 receptions and 1,598.5 yards per season put him in some rarefied space among wide receivers. He also has shown an ability to find the end zone even though he doesn’t a have power forward like body of some of the other top TD producing wide receivers. His 21 touchdowns over the last two years are nothing to sneeze at, and I don’t see Martavis Bryant cutting into his production this year. Enjoy the PPR gold as John Paulsen of 4for4.com likes to say and don’t forget he’s a standard scoring dream as well.
2. Demaryius Thomas Denver Broncos
Last season Demaryius got off to a bit of a slow start as he dealt with some drops and a lack of production. In Week 5, the flood gates opened and they wouldn’t shut for the rest of the season. Many savvy fantasy owners jumped at the chance to trade for Thomas early in the season and reaped the benefits the rest of the year. It was one of the few times a buy low could still happen with an absolute stud in fantasy football. I attributed the early season lull to his contract situation and the loss in the Super Bowl the year before. That’s a lot of pressure for a player. This season it looks like Thomas will be playing under the franchise tag if the Broncos can’t work out a long term deal. I assume they will be able to before the draft as Peyton Manning has taken a pay cut to help facilitate new contracts for his weapons. Thomas will be playing this season at age of 28 and is primed for another big year. Even with a new coach in town, I doubt Thomas’ numbers are dramatically changed. He is an integral part of the running game as his wide receiver screens and quick pops are built to threaten the edges of a defense and help soften up the middle for C.J. Anderson and the rest of the Broncos’ backs. Thomas has been amazing the last three years as he has averaged 99 receptions, 1,494 yards and over 11 touchdowns. I will take his consistency over some slightly higher ceiling receivers in 2015.
3. Dez Bryant Dallas Cowboys
Tape or no tape, Dez Bryant will be a factor in 2015. So far he’s been franchised by the Dallas Cowboys, but I expect them to invest in Dez for the long term. There is some cause for concern for the Cowboys’ long term plans with Dez’s living situation and his balky back, but I don’t think either will affect how he plays in 2015. Dez will be entering his age 27 year coming off one of his most productive seasons. The only thing holding back Dez from making a bee-line for the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver is the fact that the Cowboys don’t want Tony Romo throwing the ball around all that much. With Romo being so important to the success of the team, they do not want to risk him dropping back 40 plus times a game. The investment in their offensive line and new found running game, further pushes away Dez’s chance at more looks. The good thing for us is he doesn’t need a whole lot of looks to do something with them and if he doesn’t get the ball for a while, the entire Dallas organization will hear about it. Over the last three years he has averaged 91 receptions, 1,311 yards and over 13 touchdowns.
4. Calvin Johnson Detroit Lions
Calvin Johnson is not the No 1 wide receiver going into a new season!? What? This is the year I had drop Megatron down a peg or two because of all the miles on that big body of his. Can he still be the most productive wide receiver in the league? Of course he can, but the odds don’t support a return to dominance. Not only did Matthew Stafford take a step backward last year as a quarterback, but once again Johnson was limited by injuries to his legs. Just recently on my podcast, FSWA Hall of Famer Bob Harris talked about the possibility of what the combined toll of all the hits to the ground that Calvin Johnson and his 6’5″ 239 pound body have taken. We literally have never seen a wide receiver his size and speed before so how can we know how his body will hold up in his age 30 season. You throw in the presence of Golden Tate and you have to think Megatron won’t be making pushes for records going forward.
5. A.J. Green Cincinnati Bengals
Green had a down year in 2014 because of injuries and a lack of help in the passing game. Andy Dalton struggled with consistency and the Bengals sorely missed Marvin Jones, Tyler Eifert and Andrew Hawkins (who left via free agency in 2014). The Bengals turned to a more dominant run game as Hue Jackson utilized both Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard to great effect. The problem is we can’t tell if it was the new offense or all the injuries that led to Green having a sub-par year. I think it was a little from column A and little from column B and in 2015 we are going to see a 27-year-old Green reassert his dominance in the Bengals passing game. I expect a bounce back year from Dalton with Jones and Eifert making progress in their rehabs, and I think the Bengals can use the threat of the run to open up Green on more play action next year.
6. Julio Jones Atlanta Falcons
Julio Jones is an injury risk. We know that at this point in his career. He is a thoroughbred racehorse one false step away from having your fantasy team taken behind a woodshed and made into glue. (Too graphic?) When Jones is right, he is unstoppable. He runs through defenses like they are in slow motion and he’s got a kid gluing his blister infused finger down on the accelerate button. He high points the ball and top toes on the sidelines like a ballet dancer. It used to be we had to worry about Julio or his partner in crime, Roddy White, constantly going back and forth with big nights, but that is no longer the case. White is a full blown possession receiver who occasionally gets lost in the shuffle for a touchdown here and there, but Julio is main attraction. If the Falcons can add a more consistent running game and grab another offensive tackle to help keep Matt Ryan upright, Jones could end up as the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver. Shoot he might do it and not play all 16 games.
7. Odell Beckham Jr. New York Giants
Talk about a player taking the fantasy world by storm. Beckham showed every skill you could possibly want to see from a wide receiver last season. He has deep speed, he’s an excellent route runner, he can create yards after the catch and he could even read defensive coverage’s at an All-Pro level as a rookie. He showed an excellent feel for beating zone coverage, the ability to slide to open spots in the end zone, and of course showed how he can make plays on the ball when contested (with one hand). Even with all of those skills, I can’t move him much higher in my rankings for 2015. The Giants will have Victor Cruz back in 2015 (fingers crossed Giants fans) and they will have Rueben Randle and Larry Donnell back in the offense. Rashad Jennings should be healthy again and that’s just another option for Eli to throw to. I think Beckham is a special player, but I don’t think we are going to see him dominate the targets and market share like he did last year if the Giants are healthy and balanced in 2015. The best hope for Beckham approaching the numbers of 2014 would be if the Giants defense can’t solve their problems and Eli and company are forced into big shootouts.
8. Jordy Nelson Green Bay Packers
I hate having Jordy this low in the top 10, but this is where I would take him if I had to draft wide receivers today. He had a massive year in 2014 and his season could have been even better had he held onto two very catchable balls in Buffalo. I think most people would assume Nelson should approach his 2014 number in 2015 as Randall Cobb has remained with the team and the offense should look fairly similar.
9. Alshon Jeffery Chicago Bears
Jeffery has been growing into the number one target in Chicago for a few years, but the news that Brandon Marshall has been traded to the New York Jets puts that mantle squarely on the big receiver’s shoulders. His ability to high point the ball, run after the catch, and his penchant to make big plays at the right (or wrong time if you played against him in the fantasy football semis) time makes him a player that could outplay his draft slot. The Bears are a team in flux with a new head coach and a quarterback who has one foot in the huddle and the other on the chopping block. The instability at the quarterback position with Jay Cutler has me keeping Alshon in this spot even with Brandon Marshall out of town. I love Jeffery, I mean he’s only 25 and has been a top wide receiver for two years, but I’m not going to be the one over-drafting him.
10. T.Y. Hilton Indianapolis Colts
I believe the 10 spot is going to be a revolving door for many fantasy football experts this off season. I can make a case for at least four guys to put in this spot, but I am going to stick with Hilton for now. He is definitely the receiver that sticks out like sore thumb in my top 10. He is not as consistent a pass catcher as the other guys on this list and he isn’t a huge touchdown; but he can make big plays and plays in an offense with a quarterback that is ascending into one of the best fantasy sources for points. If Andrew Luck can continue to grow as a quarterback, I believe Hilton can better his production from the last two years. You may not be able to count on double digit touchdowns, but you can count on big yardage and over 90 receptions. I will take that at this point in the draft as I can poke holes or puff up almost any of the receivers right around him in my projections. (The others under consideration were Mike Evans, Randall Cobb and DeAndre Hopkins who will not have Andre Johnson with him in the huddle.)
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Dennis is the creator of Coach Esser. You can follow him on Twitter @Coachesser and every week on The Fantasy Coach Podcast (Itunes and Stitcher).
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