What can we expect from Adrian Peterson in 2015?
According to Adrian Peterson’s agent, the Vikings will not cut their star running back. What does this new development mean for the star running back, and especially his fantasy value, as he looks to move on from a disastrous 2014?
With the Vikings determined not to release Peterson, this would limit Peterson’s future to two options. He would either remain in Minnesota, or he would need to be traded to a select number of teams that could afford him. Even though the release is not happening, trading Peterson still seems like a legitimate option for the Vikings. Currently, the teams that are rumored to be front-runners are the Dallas Cowboys, Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins.
When looking at his fantasy value, Peterson has always been at the top of the class of running backs. If we throw out his 2014 season, Peterson has amassed over 1,000 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns in six of his previous seven campaigns. The highlight of these seven seasons was his monster year in 2012, where he finished with 2,097 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns and won the NFL MVP.
It’s not out of the question to expect similar numbers in 2015 from Peterson, even though he spent a majority of last year out of football. One huge component to his fantasy value will come from the jersey he is wearing in 2015. If he stays with the Vikings, the team has a promising young quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater and a solid offensive line that could help continue his trend of at least 1,000 yard and 10 touchdown. Especially with Bridgewater, and newly-acquired WR Mike Wallace now in the picture, Peterson would likely see less stacked boxes than he’s used to.
Things will get really interesting if Peterson winds up playing elsewhere in 2015. Obviously, Dallas would be a fantasy owner’s dream, as they have one of the best (if not the best) offensive line in the league. It’s crazy to imagine what Peterson could produce behind the line that helped DeMarco Murray win Offensive Player of the Year. Dallas also finished ranked second in the league in rushing last year, behind only Seattle. Of course, the Cowboys have signed Darren McFadden, but you never know what Jerry Jones will do.
The other rumored destinations are interesting, but less exciting. Arizona has weapons in their passing attack, despite their terrible QB play in 2014, that could open up holes in the defense for Peterson to exploit. However, they finished the year ranked 31st in the league in rushing, which is not a promising sign for Peterson’s future production. These same points also apply to Miami. They have revamped their offense this offseason, with new weapons added to their passing attack that could help Peterson produce. However, they also have issues along their offensive line.
No matter the jersey he is wearing, Peterson should be a nice addition to any fantasy backfield. Still, when looking at the other side of the coin, there are reasons to be cautious. Peterson will be 30 years old by the start of the 2015 season. He also has over 2,000 carries in his pro career, with 348 and 279 carries coming in his last two full seasons. Another downside is his production in the passing game. He has never put up huge receiving numbers (his career-high in receptions is 43 in 2009). He’s also never scored more than 1 receiving touchdown in a season. These are all points to keep in mind when drafting next year, especially Peterson’s age and career workload, as NFL running backs usually see drop-offs in production after they turn 28.
Wherever Peterson winds up, he should still be a top fantasy running back in 2015. There were serious doubts surrounding him heading into the 2012 season after he tore his ACL late in 2011. He only went on to produce one of the best seasons for a running back in NFL history, was the highest-scoring fantasy RB and won the NFL MVP. After having a full year to rest his body, and his absurd levels of previous production, Peterson has the potential to be a top fantasy running back no matter what team he plays for in 2015.
Brad Behrens is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Brad, check out his archive.
