Derek Lofland names the top fantasy RB prospects in the 2015 draft class.
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The NFL Draft is a month away, but it’s never too early to look at which running backs could contribute in fantasy this year. Running back is a little different than quarterback or receiver in terms of early fantasy value. It is easier to pick up the nuances of the running game as a NFL rookie, than it is to understand the complex passing schemes. Furthermore, running backs have as much injury risk as any position in the NFL. Many rookies that are bench players early in the season end up starting later in the year.
Rookie running backs can end up being the best bargains late in fantasy drafts and on the waiver wire. It is always a good to familiarize yourself with the new running backs that will be entering the league. Here are ten names to keep an eye on in the NFL Draft; all of these backs could be looking at a selection in the first to fourth round.
1) Melvin Gordon – Wisconsin Badgers
Gordon dominated the NCAA in 2014 with 343 carries for 2,587 yards and 29 rushing touchdowns. Wisconsin running backs have traditionally not done well at the NFL level, but Gordon is a special physical talent. He runs the 40-yard dash in a little over 4.50 seconds and also can bench press 225 lbs. 19 times. I think he is the best running back in this draft class and one potential landing spot is the Dallas Cowboys, where he could have RB1 upside behind that offensive line. Gordon should see a lot of touches as a rookie and have high flex to low RB2 value with a ton of upside.
2) Todd Gurley – Georgia
Had he not torn his ACL in November, I probably would rank him as the top running back in this draft class. He may end up having the best career, but coming back from a serious injury clouds his fantasy value. The good news for him is that by his draft stock dropping, he may end up on a very good team. That could help his value if he is healthy enough to play in Week 1. Gurley would not let doctors look at his knee during the NFL Scouting Combine. He also did not participate at Georgia’s Pro Day. The tape does not lie, when healthy, he tallied 3,285 rushing yards in his career and averaged 6.4 yards per carry. If he is healthy enough to play this year, he could be a viable weekly fantasy option.
3) Jay Ajayi – Boise State
He did not run a 40-yard dash at his Pro Day, but he did tally a 4.57 second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, so there was no need. He led the country with 347 carries in 2014 and turned those carries into 1,823 yards and 28 rushing touchdowns. He also showed good value as a receiver with 50 receptions for 543 yards and four receiving touchdowns. I think he also has a chance to contribute early and often for a NFL team, it just depends on where he is drafted. RB4 to flex value as a rookie is very realistic with upside if a starter were to suffer an injury.
4) Tevin Coleman – Indiana
Coleman has big-play ability that few running backs in the 2015 NFL Draft class possess. He led the country with a ridiculous 10 rushing touchdowns of 25 yards or more. He finished the season with 270 rushing attempts for 2,036 rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns. A big reason the casual fan does not know about him is that he played in the same conference as Gordon on a team that was just (4-8) and (1-7) in the Big 10. Coleman did not run at the NFL Scouting Combine, but he should be able to run the 40-yard dash in 4.40 seconds. He has big play ability and could be an excellent fantasy option in the right situation. As a rookie starter, he could have high flex value with upside.
5) Ameer Abdullah – Nebraska
The big knock on him is fumbles, which is a good way to end up on the bench in the NFL. According to CBS Sports, Abdullah has the worst fumble rate of the 2015 running back class with one fumble every 35.4 offensive touches. When he hung onto the ball, he tallied 264 rushing attempts for 1,611 yards and 19 rushing touchdowns. He was a little slow in the 40-yard dash (4.60 seconds), but he did bench press 24 reps. He is also a little undersized at 5’9” and 205 lbs. I think he will have a chance to share some carries in 2015, but probably will not be a featured back unless a starter and possibly another backup are injured. I could see RB4 value with flex value upside.
6) Duke Johnson – Miami
Johnson is about the same size as Abdullah, but has a little more explosion than him. He also has ball security issues, having fumbled the ball six times in 2013 and 2014. He was very productive with 242 carries for 1,652 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns, but I think he has a better chance to be part of a committee in his rookie season than a starting running back. Similar to Abdullah, RB4 value with flex upside would be my projection for him until I see what team selects him.
7) Jeremy Langford – Michigan State
Langford had a great 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine (4.42 seconds) and he has a lot of good tape to compliment the solid workout. He had 276 rushing attempts for 1,522 yards and 22 rushing touchdowns in 2014. He has big-play ability and scored 40 rushing touchdowns in 2013 and 2014. CBS Sports is projecting him as a second to third round pick and in the right system, he could do very well in his rookie year.
8) T. Y. Yeldon – Alabama
Yeldon was not as productive as he was his first two seasons at Alabama. He had only 194 carries for 979 yards, 5.0 yards per carry and 11 rushing touchdowns. That was significantly down from his 2013 season, when he tallied 1,235 yards and scored 14 touchdowns while averaging 6.0 yards per carry. Alabama running backs have had mixed results in the NFL. Trent Richardson was a bust in Cleveland and Indianapolis, but Eddie Lacy has found a home in Green Bay. After a slow start to his career, Mark Ingram started to play up to his potential in New Orleans last season. I think Yeldon could eventually be a starter in the right situation, but as a rookie he is probably looking at RB5 value with RB4 upside.
9) David Cobb – Minnesota
He is a power back that can move the chains with his 5’11” and 229 lb. frame. He tallied 1,626 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns at Minnesota. The one knock on him is a lack of speed, and he posted a 4.81 40-yard dash with just 17 bench press reps. The combine though is not an indicator of future NFL success. I think he plays faster on tape than he did at the combine, but I am not sure he is going to see enough touches as a rookie. Keep in mind that nobody had heard of Florida Atlantic RB Alfred Morris and his slow 40-yard dash back in 2012, but he did just fine his rookie year and finished as a fantasy RB1. Cobb would need a similar situation on a team that values tough yards over big plays.
10) Javorius Allen – Southern California
He probably is not starting material as a rookie, but could be a useful player in a committee. At 6’0” and 221 lbs., you would think that he would be a power runner. Yet, he had a great 40-yard dash (4.53 seconds), but bench-pressed only 11 reps. He had 276 rushing attempts for 1,489 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns last year, but also made a contribution in the passing game with 41 receptions for 458 yards and one touchdown. He’s another player that could flourish in the right situation, but is probably someone to monitor this year rather than draft. It is unlikely he is going to earn a starting job in his rookie season.
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Derek Lofland is the co-owner of Fantasy Football Maniax. You can also follow him on Twitter @DerekLofland.
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