Aaron Rodgers could be in an even better spot for fantasy owners entering the 2015 season
Not only is this going to be an (allegedly) informative article on some players who have gained stealthy value during the craziness of free agency, I’ll give you a hypothetical Jeopardy answer for free!
“Internet arguments, eating contests, freemium games.”
“What are things you win by not playing?”
“Correct!”
Sometimes it’s best to just sit back and let the action come to you, and these players have improved their stock by association.
QB: Aaron Rodgers, Colin Kaepernick
Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers’ stock really cant get any higher (QB2, Overall 23rd ranked per FantasyPros Consensus at the time of writing). If you take a step back and take a look at his offseason from a distance, it’s a minor miracle at what went on around him.
At the beginning of the offseason, there was a possibility that the Packers would lose (arguably) both the best tackle and receiver on the open market in Bryan Bulaga and Randall Cobb. These losses could’ve sent Rodgers’s blue-chip stock into tailspin. Instead the Packers made the decision to retain both Bulaga and Cobb, effectively bringing back all of 2014’s starters, save FB John Kuhn, whose future destination is still up in the air (which isn’t a great place for Kuhn to be).
Bulaga anchors a line that ranked 13th in pass-protection, per Football Outsiders, and won’t have to deal with the unholy terror that is Ndomokong Suh for two games a year anymore. In fact, the NFC North as a whole has stayed relatively stagnant in terms of defensive-degree of difficulty. The Bears did add the highly-regarded Pernell McPhee, but lost Stephen Paea in the process. While the Lions did bring in Haloti Ngata to help fill the void created by Suh’s exit, they haven’t made any other defensive moves of note. Neither have the Vikings.
In addition to bringing back Cobb (WR11, 27 overall per FantasyPros consensus), the Packers still have the not-sure-if-they’re-good-yet-but-my-are-they-interesting troika of Davante Adams, Richard Rodgers, and Jeff Janis and the possible 1st overall pick in 2015 fantasy drafts, Eddie Lacy. All the main and ancillary pieces are back from 2014’s 4th-most productive fantasy offense, per RotoGrinders. If taking a QB early is your thing, you can make a strong case that Rodgers should be the 1st QB off the board in 2015.
Colin Kaepernick
Speaking of Rodgers, my oh my how things have changed since the meeting of Rodgers and Kapernick in 2013. It’s been mostly downhill since then for the embattled 49ers QB, bottoming out as the 20th-highest scoring QB in 2014. As of right now Kaepernick is ranked at QB15 and 98 overall per FantasyPros consensus rankings, but in my humble opinion, all things as they are now, Kaepernick is a lock to deliver value.
While he may have lost Michael Crabtree, Frank Gore and stalwart lineman Mike Iupati, these losses could be seen as addition by subtraction when it comes to Kaepernick’s fantasy value. Crabtree might have been a clubhouse cancer, unhappy with his role in the offense, who has been replaced by burner Torrey Smith, who at first blush seems like a much better fit to Kaepernick’s rifle arm. Iupati may have been a detriment to the passing game, grading poorly in 2014, and his projected replacement, Brandon Thomas, who held his own against Jadeveon Clowney, should give Kaepernick a little more time to find Smith, as well as the returning Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis.
While Gore leaving looks negative, it represents a sea change in San Fran, as the offense could very well shift from a traditional Power-I based run game to more of a collegiate pistol-formation based scheme. Both Carlos Hyde and Kaepernick played in read-option offenses at Ohio State and Nevada, and Hyde’s familiarity with the scheme has already been noticed.
In addition to possible upgrades at receiver, pass protection, and a scheme that could inflate his stats by providing him valuable read-option looks, mass defections on defense Perrish Cox, Chris Culliver, Dan Skuta, Chris Borland, and Patrick Willis are not returning, could lead to a slip in the team’s defense, and an increased pace on offense. With the ball in Kaepernick’s hands against a slightly less difficult division (nobody is healthy in Seattle and Byron Maxwell is no longer with the team, Antonio Cromartie left Arizona for New York, as did Defensive Coordinator Todd Bowles) the stars are beginning to align for Kaepernick to have a bounce-back fantasy campaign in 2015. If spending an offseason training under Kurt Warner can improve Kaepernick’s touch (and hopefully lead to a Beats commercial with Kaepernick bagging groceries, you’re welcome, Dr. Dre) all signs point to this being the lowest you’ll ever be able to draft Kaepernick.
RB: Andre Ellington, Chris Ivory, and LeGarrette Blount
(Disclaimer: Yes, I know Carlos Hyde and DeVonta Freeman have moved into bigger roles on their respective teams, but Hyde is a no-brainer sleeper and is going to get more than enough pixels/ink spilled over him in the coming months, and I for one am not a Freeman believer, not with Antone Smith still around…)
Andre Ellington
With all of these backs you have to hold your breath, but they’re almost out of the woods and to undisputed lead-back status on their respective teams. The most interesting in my opinion is 2014’s sleeper de jour darling Andre Ellington. His 2014 was doomed from the start, as he tried to play through a foot injury, and then ended up having to be shut down. Along the way, the Cardinals gave him an insane amount of touches (20.58, 7th in the NFL), which propelled him to be the 10th-ranked RB through 12 weeks, despite a horrid 3.3 YPC clip. After the season it seemed inevitable that the team would look to add another RB or two to help manage Ellington’s workload, and then a funny thing happened. The Cardinals haven’t added any running backs, and made a huge upgrade at guard singing top run-blocker Mike Iupati. As it stands now, Ellington remains the focal point of the Cardinal offense, and with Carson Palmer’s recovery, won’t face the stacked fronts he was tasked with overcoming in 2014.
Ellington most likely won’t see 20+ touches a game again, and the team may still bring in a marginal veteran (Stevan Ridley makes a lot of sense) or draft one of the many-highly touted prospects from the 2014 draft. At the time of this writing Ellington represents a tremendous value ranked as the 21st RB and 40th overall by FantasyPros consensus.
Chris Ivory
Chris Ivory is another back that was supposed to be replaced by a free agent, namely C.J. Spiller, but much like Ellington his team has decided to stand by him. While Ellginton ran unopposed in Arizona, Ivory’s only real competition, Chris Johnson, was let go, taking his 179 touches with him. Much like Ellington, he received an upgrade to the offensive line (not nearly as impactful as Iupati however) in James Carpenter to an already above-average (13th in run blocking grade by PFF) line.
Along with his blockers being upgraded, and his competition being eliminated, everything seems coming up Ivory elsewhere. Debate all you want about Ryan Fitzpatrick being an upgrade over Geno Smith, but it is nearly assured that one of those two, or possibly Marcus Mariota, will give the team some stability at the position, and the addition of Brandon Marshall gives New York yet another upgrade to a previously moribund offense. In short, the tide on offense has risen, and Ivory’s metaphorical boat should rise as well.
You could (rightly) argue that Ivory has never seen more than 220 touches due to durability concerns, and hasn’t been utilized outside of the backfield. I would counter with the facts that even with a relatively limited workload, Ivory was fantasy football’s 19th-highest scoring RB, and posted a career-high 18 receptions last year (smashing his previous high-water mark of 2). On paper he may not be a great fit for the Chan Gailey spread offense, but tell that to the San Diego Chargers, as Ivory is going to be an unholy terror for unsuspecting DBs in space, if he can corral his targets. Despite breaking tackles at the 4th-highest rate amongst RBs with 200+ touches, Ivory is currently ranked as RB30 and 81st overall by FantasyPros early consensus, but has the potential to see his stock skyrocket. He represents a tremendous value at the time of this writing.
LeGarrette Blount
The Patriots went into the offseason with their two leading RBs in terms of touches (Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley) poised to enter free agency, and at the time of this writing neither of them are Patriots. Vereen has departed to New York, and Ridley has just begun visiting other teams. The duo represents 246 touches to replace, not a small order. While the Pats have added running backs via free agency, they’ve only brought in pass catchers (Travaris Cadet, Dion Lewis via a futures contract) leading me to believe that they’re poised to make LeGarrette Blount the lead back for 2014.
While the Pats haven’t relied on a rusher to carry a three-down load since they heaped 290 carries onto Stevan Ridley’s plate in 2012, if anybody is going to takeover the backfield it’s Blount. He averaged 9.6 fantasy points per game, and scored the 24th-most fantasy points from Week 12 to Week 17 in 2014. He looks to have no competition for the big-back role in New England, and if the Patriots’ young offensive line can progress, Blount is in position to have his best fantasy season since he burst onto the scene in 2010.
Blount is currently FantasyPros consensus RB29 and 75th overall. The team around him hasn’t changed, and that looks to suit the former Oregon Duck perfectly fine, as he’s never rushed for fewer than 4.7 yards per carry during his stints with the Patriots. He’s a great bet to outperform his consensus rank.
Brian Tesch is a correspondent at FantasyPros. Check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @TheRealTesch.
