Will newly drafted RB Matt Jones affect Morris’ fantasy value in 2015?
Redskins general manager Scot McCloughan went into the draft with a plan to improve the team’s run game. Three offensive linemen were selected, with first-round offensive tackle Brandon Scherff being the most notable of the bunch. Scherff’s main strength is run blocking, and rookie guard, Spencer Jones, will likely start at right guard this season and has the strength to be an effective run blocker at the NFL-level. Florida running back Matt Jones was drafted in the third round, but head coach Jay Gruden asserted that Alfred Morris‘ role wouldn’t be impacted by Jones’ selection. So then why exactly was Jones picked?
Being a feature back in the NFL ain’t easy, and sometimes you need someone to take a bit of the load off your shoulders. That’s where Jones comes in. He’s a 6-foot-2, 231-pound, tough and physical runner who would be ideal for early down work. Even though Morris’ carries and yards have declined each of the last two seasons, he’s still done a great job every year, so there’s no incentive to hand someone else the starting gig. Jones will initially spell Morris on early downs and his good pass blocking makes him the most capable back on the team’s roster behind Morris. And honestly, capable is all they need. The team trusted the rushers behind Morris so little last year that only 19 carries were handled by other ‘Skins tailbacks. Morris’ body won’t last much longer unless someone else can pound the rock in his stead.
Morris is going off the board in early mocks as a high-end RB2. Some feel he’s no longer an RB1 because of his receding production, but much of it wasn’t his fault. You can’t run the ball as often when you’re always playing from behind with a bad offensive line. The Redskins seem poised to put an increased emphasis on smashmouth football based on the draft selections of Scherff, Long and Jones, along with the hiring of the successful, run-minded offensive line coach Bill Callahan. Morris may get a slightly smaller piece of the pie with Jones around, but his production may actually increase in what is supposed to be a revamped run-game. If so, then he has a decent shot of outperforming his draft value.
Jones will certainly get his chance, though. He is a great fit for the power-run game Scot McCloughan and Bill Callahan want to establish in Washington. Plus, his pass blocking gives him value as a third-down back and he could see some receiving opportunities out of the backfield. However, some teams thought that he went off the draft board way too quickly, so there’s not even any real consensus as to whether he will even be a competent NFL back. There’s even a chance he could fall behind Silas Redd on the depth chart, since Redd has looked impressive in spurts. The best case scenario for Jones’ fantasy value is that he spells Morris occasionally on early downs, and becomes the team’s short yardage back and touchdown vulture. Realistically, I expect Jones’ impact to be fairly minimal until I see what he can do in the preseason and exactly how the team may try to use him in their gameplan.
When it’s all said and done, Morris is still the top dog in Washington, probably by a wide margin. His carries will decline a little, but delivering RB2 production will be his absolute floor, even with Matt Jones in town. Morris is not an exciting option, but he’s a rock solid, consistent back. View him as a high-end RB2 with low-end RB1 potential.
Jonathan Ebanks is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Jonathan, check out his archive and follow him @hogz4lyfe.
