Is this the end of David Ortiz?
There are some things that are simply certain in this life. The sun will rise, birds will fly, fish will swim, and Big Papi will be a productive batter for the Red Sox. Well, one of life’s certainties may be waning towards uncertainty. David Ortiz is 39 years old. Many thought last year was going to be the beginning of the end for Papi, but then of course he hit 35 home runs. It is almost as if that spurred this belief that Ortiz is timeless; that he will be hitting third in the Boston lineup until he is 50.
Fast-forward to Thursday night’s game against Minnesota. Ortiz finished the evening 0-for-5, dropping his season slash line to a dismal .220/.300/.376. In his last 10 games Ortiz is batting just .175 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, and only 1 run scored. It is well documented that Ortiz tends to heat up as the season progresses, but it’s already June. So is this really the end of an era? Is the man who has been a postseason legend for the Red Sox since 2004 on his last leg?
Unfortunately, there is significant evidence that reveals that this slump is not a fluke. From 2010 to 2013, Ortiz carried a fantastic BABIP that seldom dipped below .315. Starting last season, it began regressing. Despite the fantastic season, he still had a BABIP that was much lower than his career norm, hovering at .256 to end the season. However, his ability to hit the ball hard, and keep the ball in the air helped lead him to a 35-HR season. The change did not go unnoticed in his average. After hitting a cool .309 in 2013, Ortiz hit just .263 last season. The trend has seemingly caught up with him even more this season. His GB/FB ratio of 1.24 is currently the highest of his career. This is the same metric that Ortiz excelled in last season, and helped keep him afloat. His current GB/FB goes along with a rough .238 BABIP. All of this results in suppressed power, and average, and does not necessarily provide any indication of potential improvement. Red Sox fans might have to break open the tissue box at this point.
The silver lining for Ortiz is that he has not regressed in his ability to see the baseball. He has a 14.6% K%, which is actually lower than where he ended the season last year. This means that he is still making contact, even if it is frequently defective contact. Against RHP, he is still hitting .277 with an impressive .883 OPS. Conversely, he is batting only .119 with a horrendous .282 OPS against lefties. Ortiz has always been significantly better against righties, but these numbers suggest the Sox should consider sitting him against LHP. The Red Sox recently gave Papi a couple days off to work on his swing, so hopefully that will be the recipe for a hot streak.
Sometimes it is difficult to look at metrics, because they seem to tell the truth, and sometimes the truth seems unbelievable. Often times it is exactly what you do not want to hear. Even if Big Papi does bounce back this season for another productive year, it is easy to sense that the end is near. Fantasy owners looking to sell Ortiz for next to nothing should remain patient, and hope he turns it around once again. However, I would not necessarily recommend buying him at this point. Let’s end this on the note that Big Papi is one of the greatest hitters of this generation, and I would be extremely happy to find my foot in my mouth when he is raking in a couple weeks.
Grant Evje is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Grant check out his archive and follow him@GrantEvje.
