Joey Gallo has been impressive since making his major league debut
Ever since making his MLB debut on June 2, Joey Gallo and his big bat took the baseball world by storm. However, we also witnessed the worst of Joey Gallo on June 5 when he “achieved” the infamous golden sombrero. Now that we’ve seen both the good and bad sides of Gallo’s game, what exactly will the slugger’s fantasy impact be moving forward?
At this very early juncture in Gallo’s career, we’ve come to the realization that on every plate appearance Gallo is very likely to either pull off something incredible or sadly strikeout. In fact, Gallo has struck out 13 times in 24 at-bats. But on the flipside, he’s given you five runs, seven hits, two home runs, five RBI, a stolen base and a .292 batting average. Despite the strikeouts, what more could you really ask for? The Rangers and all of his fantasy owners must be satisfied with his performance to date.
However, has anyone really considered the possibility that his 2015 value peaked after just two games? In the four-game, 16 at-bat span since his initial power surge, Gallo has had three hits, a run, nine strikeouts, a steal, no homers and a .188 batting average. Granted, that’s a very small sample size, but there aren’t many positives you can take away from those four games, which represent two-thirds of his young MLB career at this point. Furthermore, Gallo has a 48.2 strikeout percentage and a .556 BABIP in 27 career plate appearances. Fortunately, that strikeout percentage should come down to the mid-30s, but that BABIP is completely unsustainable moving forward and it should be much closer to .300 by the end of his time in the majors this year. Therefore, while he’ll strikeout less, his batting average will continue to drop. I can see it settling in the .260s.
I’m a little more worried about the BABIP than the strikeouts with him because we already know his contact isn’t stellar. As his BABIP normalizes and affects his batting average in the process, he will have numerous multiple-game streaks where he will fail to record a hit. He won’t keep getting away with the same hits that are now getting him on base. However, note that while his BABIP will decline (a lot) it should still be pretty strong. He’s never had a BABIP lower than .305 at any level of the minors. Plus, he recorded a .370 BABIP in 2014 through 246 High-A plate appearances and a .453 BABIP this year through 146 Double-A plate appearances. So even when he’s not going yard, he’s still hitting the ball pretty hard. In other words, his BABIP will likely fall by .200+ points, but a big bat like his can sustain a very good .325 – .350 BABIP.
So now that we’ve established that there’s no way he can continue playing this well moving forward, how much should this bother you? Rather, should this even trouble you at all? His immense power helps to offset his lack of contact. ISO is a stat used to measure raw power. The best ISOs are at least .250. Gallo has never had an ISO below .250 at any level of the minors. In fact, Gallo sported a combined ISO of .344 in 2014 between his time during High-A and Double-A (the highest in the minors for all players with 300 plate appearances last year). Don’t worry about the fact that in 2014 he had the lowest contact rate inside the strike zone (64.2 percent) of all minor-leaguers in the International League, Southern League and Texas League. Simply put, when the pitcher hangs it, he bangs it.
The picture below was tweeted by Kate Morrison on May 29, 2015. What’s so special about it? Earlier that evening Gallo hit a homer that knocked the “!nTouch” sign. Daaang!
This is the power that compelled numerous analysts to feature Gallo as a top 20 prospect. KATOH is a methodology created by the very intelligent Chris Mitchell to project minor leaguers’ future WAR in the majors. Even by KATOH standards, Gallo graded out as a big-time prospect. The projections gave Gallo a WAR of 11.0 through age 28, which was the seventh-highest out of all minor leaguers in 2014 who had at least 200 plate appearances or faced at least 200 batters.
Aside from going deep, what other attribute would help him to amass a WAR like that? He can create runs with his ability to get on-base in spite of his lackluster contact. For a guy who strikes out a ton, his plate discipline is still good enough for him to draw a lot of walks. His 2014 walk rate of 16 percent was better than most of his minor league peers. In fact, his Double-A walk rate of 12.4 percent in 291 plate appearances ranked 77th out of 517 hitters who had at least 100 plate appearances last year in the International League, Texas League and Southern League. His penchant for walks and a routinely strong BABIP have provided him with good OBP numbers throughout his minor league career. Don’t expect that trend to cease in the majors.
He will strike out very often and his batting average won’t be glamorous, but he can draw walks as well as any other hitter and his brute force often allows him to get on base, even when he’s not smashing dingers. It’s just that while it’s easy to get excited about a guy who cleared the fence 42 times last year and 40 times the year before, expectations should be tempered. He’s still a rookie with average contact, at best, who is learning how to figure out Major League pitchers. He won’t save your season, but his power and ability to get on base should make him a top-100 hitter in fantasy while he’s in the majors. I believe he’ll be towards the bottom of the 100 once his numbers have normalized, but that still makes him an everyday starter in redraft leagues and a dynasty league asset. Gallo is expected to be sent back down once Josh Hamilton returns in about a month, but the Rangers are 4-2 since Gallo was called up. If he keeps performing at a high-level and the Rangers keep surging, then maybe…just maybe…Gallo is here to stay.
Jonathan Ebanks is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Jonathan, check out his archive and follow him @hogz4lyfe.
