Advanced stats show that Dan Haren has been very luck this season
The Chicago Cubs made a minor move prior to the trade deadline last week, acquiring starting pitcher Dan Haren from the Miami Marlins. With the move, the Cubs are hoping to fill a gaping hole in the back end of their rotation. The 34-year-old right-handed pitcher is currently 7-7 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 134 innings of work this season.
Although his ERA and WHIP appear to be decent, his FIP (4.73) and xFIP (4.63) suggest otherwise. One intriguing statistic that sticks out for Haren is his left on base percentage. Of the 91 starting pitchers that qualify for rate statistics this season in Major League Baseball, Haren ranks fourth in left on base percentage with 82.5%. This number is almost ten percent higher than his career average of 72.8% despite having a meager K/9 of 6.11. His high left on base percentage is likely due to the Marlins being one of the best defensive teams in the league with an ultimate zone rating of 20.3. His new team however only has an ultimate zone rating of 5.7, which ranks 13th in all of baseball and means that his high left on base percentage is unlikely to be sustainable.
Another thing to consider for Haren’s fantasy value is the change in ballparks. Marlins Park was one of the worst ballparks for allowing home runs in 2014, whereas Wrigley Field was middle of the pack. Also, generally in the warmer months, Wrigley Field favors hitters even more since the temperature is higher and the wind is typically blowing out more frequently than earlier in the season.
Since Haren’s numbers are deceptive, his fantasy value for the remainder of the 2015 season should be limited to streaming in favorable matchups only. He has an unsustainable rate of leaving runners on base and he’s also moving to a more favorable ballpark for hitters.
Kaz Kalita is a correspondent at FantasyPros. You can find more of Kaz’s work at DraftStars.net and you can follow him @draftstars_kaz.
