Will DeMarco Murray thrive in his new environment?
In standard scoring, DeMarco Murray was the No. 1 running back in fantasy football last season. So after his move to Philadelphia, where is Murray being drafted this summer? Ninth among running backs and 16th overall, well into the second round.
That’s not a lot of brotherly love for someone who ran for 1,845 yards – almost 500 more than any other back in the league – 13 touchdowns, and added 416 yards on 57 catches. Fantasy owners are not taking well to his departure from Dallas. Why? There’s good reason.
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It’s not because he was a product of the system. The Cowboys’ line is a powerhouse, led by Pro Bowlers Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick and Zack Martin. Smith and Martin made first-team All-Pro. But you can put this issue to rest, for two reasons.
First, Murray was outstanding in his own right, ranked as the No. 3 running back of 2014 by Pro Football Focus. His 67 missed tackles were second only to Marshawn Lynch. He averaged 2.54 yards after contact per carry, eighth in the league. Philadelphia is paying him $9 million this year, all guaranteed, so he’s clearly viewed as LeSean McCoy’s successor as the centerpiece of the offense.
And even if Murray owes his monster season to the line, the Eagles’ front five are pretty good, too. PFF actually ranked the Cowboys as the second-best run-blocking line of 2014, behind…Philadelphia. It may be hard to realize how good they are because the Eagles’ line was decimated last year by injuries and a suspension, contributing to a sub-par year for McCoy.
The Eagles did lose guard Evan Mathis to free agency, but they return PFF’s All-Pro tackles from 2014, Jason Peters and Lane Johnson. Center Jason Kelce earned that honor in 2013. Peters had PFF’s highest run-blocking grade among left tackles in 2014. The Eagles also have one of the NFL’s top run-blocking tight ends in Brent Celek. Murray won’t have a big drop-off in his blockers.
Of greater concern is usage. Philadelphia’s backfield is loaded, and Chip Kelly doesn’t hesitate to use all of his backs extensively. McCoy’s 2014 owners can attest to that, as he scored just five of the Eagles’ 16 rushing touchdowns in 2014. Their leader in that department was actually Darren Sproles with six, and three of those were within the 10-yard-line. Sproles also caught 40 passes, giving him 418 for his career. He returns, and the Eagles signed Ryan Mathews to a three-year, $11 million contract, including $5 million guaranteed. That’s not mere handcuff money. All of this led Philadelphia Inquirer writer Jeff McLane to speculate that Murray will get just 50 percent of the work in the backfield.
So even in an offense that led the league in total plays from scrimmage last year, Murray is sure to fall short of his 449 touches in 2014. (The Eagles’ top three backs had 485 combined.) Think more around 20 per game. Philly’s fast pace requires a rotation of backs to keep them rested.
That could help Murray in the long term. Last season was the first in which he played all 16 games. He missed three in 2011, six in 2012 and two in 2013. His reputation as injury-prone may still linger in fantasy owner’s memories and probably was a factor in the Mathews signing. A lighter workload will help him stay healthy. Mathews has been a frequent flyer in trainers’ rooms as well, as he missed 10 games last year.
On a weekly basis, Murray’s upside unquestionably takes a hit, but he has a high floor. The questions about his workload understandably knock him out of the top five fantasy backs and even out of the first round.
But the number of running backs without issues dwindles more every year, it seems, so you could do worse in the second round than one of the league’s most talented backs behind a stellar line in a good offense. Pair him with an elite running back or receiver in the first round, and you have a solid start to your draft.
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Keith Kraska is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Keith, check out his archive.
