How will Brandon Marshall’s arrival affect Eric Decker?
Eric Decker proved two things in his first season with the New York Jets. First, he thrives much more as the second receiver in an offense. Second, the drop-off from Peyton Manning to Geno Smith is steeper than the Rocky Mountains.
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The sixth-year pro was underwhelming in his debut season with the Jets, catching 74 passes for 962 yards and five touchdowns. Decker caught 24 touchdown passes during his prior two seasons with the Denver Broncos.
Decker was even more disappointing for fantasy owners who may have drafted him as a WR2 or WR3. He scored in double digits just six times in 2014 and his production was widely sporadic. Decker’s best game came in Week 17, when some fantasy seasons were already over. He tore up the Miami Dolphins for 10 catches, 222 yards and one touchdown that week. That lone performance was the reason he even finished in the top-30 in scoring among wide receivers in standard leagues.
Currently, Decker is ranked as the 35th wide receiver by our experts. That merits him as a mid-level WR3. However, his average draft position has him being taken 42nd in drafts among wideouts, which puts him in the WR4 tier. Draft position tells only half the story, as Decker’s situation has changed drastically since last season.
The Jets traded for former Bears wide receiver Brandon Marshall and he will play the role of the No. 1 option in the passing game. In most cases, this would result in a hit to a receiver’s fantasy stock, but this acquisition may actually help Decker.
It’s important to keep in mind that Decker was the second fiddle in Denver’s offense behind Demaryius Thomas. Decker still thrived in two seasons with Thomas as the top receiver. He had more than 2,300 receiving yards and the aforementioned 24 touchdowns with Thomas getting the majority of targets.
Granted, Denver’s offense was about as pass-heavy as it gets in the NFL, but the Jets should be throwing the ball plenty with offensive coordinator Chan Gailey calling the plays. Decker also struggled occasionally as the focal point of the passing game and didn’t fare well against top cornerbacks. Decker could be in store for a bounce-back season with Marshall drawing the attention of the opponent’s top corner every week. He wasn’t great against top coverage, but he has proven he can perform against less talented opposition.
Decker’s quarterback situation also might have improved in training camp. Smith will be sidelined six to 10 weeks after getting his jaw broken by a teammate in the locker room. That means Ryan Fitzpatrick will be taking the reigns as the starter for at least the first quarter of the season. Fitzpatrick is far from an elite quarterback, but he isn’t afraid to fling the ball around and played his best football between 2010 and 2012 with the Buffalo Bills when Gailey was the head coach.
Many believed Fitzpatrick was a better option than Smith before Smith’s injury. Fitzpatrick could represent a blessing in disguise for Marshall and Decker, as it should allow Gailey to open up the offense a bit more with the veteran leading the offense.
The quarterback situation in New York will be one to monitor as the season continues, but head coach Todd Bowles made a point of saying that Smith could lose his starting job if Fitzpatrick plays well. Decker owners should hope that the turnover prone and embattled Smith doesn’t see the field in 2015.
Decker’s targets may decrease, but his production could be respectable while defenses focus on stopping Marshall. Decker is also still a reliable red-zone target at 6-foot-3, 214 pounds and should see an increase in touchdowns this upcoming season. He may not be a starting wide receiver each week like he was in Denver, but that doesn’t mean Eric Decker can’t be a reliable WR3 or FLEX option on a weekly basis.
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Matt Barbato is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Matt, you can view his archive or follow him @realmattbarbato.
