Fantasy Outlook: The Risk/Reward of Alshon Jeffery

Is the potential reward worth the risk Alshon Jeffery carries?

Eric Moody discusses the fantasy outlook for Alshon Jeffery in the upcoming season.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Eric head to FFLockerRoom.

Have you ever had a life event? Many of you reading this may have purchased a home. You may have had a child. You may have even gotten married. NFL players, like many of us, prefer familiarity and do not like change. Alshon Jeffery has had numerous football life events this offseason heading into the start of the 2015 NFL regular season. Former Chicago Bears head coach Marc Trestman and staff were fired and replaced by former Denver Broncos head coach John Fox. Fox did bring in former Broncos offensive coordinator Adam Gase to implement his scheme. Jeffery also lost mentor and fellow wide receiver Brandon Marshall via a trade. The Bears have also lost their first-round draft pick Kevin White for possibly the entire season. This player outlook helps you understand why Jeffery is still a wide receiver you should target in your upcoming fantasy football drafts.

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Understanding the context of Jeffery’s 2014 Fantasy Production

Jeffery finished as the No. 12 fantasy wide receiver in standard scoring leagues according to Pro Football Focus. We learned that Jeffery could excel as the No. 1 target in the passing game with Marshall hobbled. He was also still viable as the Trestman regime crumbled before our eyes late in the season along with Jay Cutler’s quarterback play. Jeffery was hampered by a hamstring injury suffered in last year’s season opener. He was still able to use his length and frame to box out defensive players in order to make plays as opposed to relying on blazing speed to create space. This is one benefit of drafting larger receivers in fantasy football if they get banged up. Jeffery is following up two productive seasons after emerging in 2013.

Jeffery led the Bears in targets and receiving yards the past two years. He is currently dealing with a mild calf strain which brings me to my second point.

Understanding the context of Jeffery’s 2015 Injury Outlook

Sports Injury Predictor is a phenomenal website created to predict which NFL players are likely to get injured in a season. Jeffery is classified as a high injury risk (77%) this season. Here is what the player overview says about him:

Alshon Jeffery lit up the score board and fantasy teams the last two years as he operated as one of the “towers” in Chicago’s “twin tower” offense. Jeffery missed six games as a rookie in 2012 due to a fracture in his hand as well as hamstring and knee issues but has showed no signs of any of that as he blasted his way to football relevance. His preseason calf injury is definitely something to monitor and has shot his injury probability up for the coming season.

This can be interpreted in one of two ways. You can add him to your “I’m not going to drat this player” list or evaluate the risk versus reward of drafting him. In my opinion being on one end of the risk averse or risk taker spectrum when building your fantasy team is not the answer. It helps to have a balance and this is where Jeffery can be a value if his recent injury news affects his average draft position.

Targets, WR Deep Passing, and Yards-Per-Route-Run make the world go round

Over the past two seasons I noticed that wide receivers with 150 or more targets have a high probability to finish in the top five for fantasy football. Jeffery had 135 targets last year. Marshall accounted for 101. Bears Matt Forte led all running backs with 118 targets under Trestman. Forte has a very low probability of repeating his reception totals under new head coach John Fox. He has publicly mentioned that the staff would like to use Forte more as a runner. Martellus Bennett was the most targeted tight end in the NFL last season with 125. Numerous factors led to all of these statistics, but how likely are they to repeat themselves? The Bears defense was one of the most inefficient in the NFL last season and that is unlikely to change. Game flow will force the Bears offense to throw the ball in order to score points. Jeffery is clearly the best offensive weapon in the passing game. The Bears have the unfortunate task of playing in the NFC North and having to face the AFC West this season. Here is a visual of how the NFC North and AFC West ranked in points scored last season according to Pro Football Reference.

I project the Packers, Broncos, Chiefs, and Chargers to maintain their offensive production this season. I view the Vikings, Lions, and Raiders as ascending offenses. These are all signs that point toward Jeffery having the opportunity to produce some monster stat lines. It is possible he sets a career high in targets in 2015.

The Pro Football Focus wide receiver rating shows the quarterback rating when a wide receiver is thrown at. Jeffery finished in the top 10 last year despite dealing with a nagging hamstring injury.

I prefer to roster wide receivers in fantasy football who consistently receive targets downfield. The Pro Football Focus Wide Receiver Deep Passing figure tells you which players are receiving those targets. Jeffery finished with the 11^th most downfield targets in the league last season with 30. He is phenomenal at reeling in these targets of 20 yards or more, but the area of opportunity for Cutler is to throw more catchable footballs. Jeffery had 11 receptions on 11 catchable deep passes.

The Pro Football Focus Yards-Per-Route Run figure takes into account the number of snaps a player went into a pattern. It provides a better indicator of production than Yards per Reception or even Yards per Target. Jeffery’s health last season impacted his YPRR, but here is a visual of how he performed over the past two seasons.

Jeffery’s 2.36 YPRR in 2013 ranked as the sixth best in the league for wide receivers who received 50% or more of their team’s targets.

Conclusion

Jeffery is certainly a wide receiver you should target this season. He has an ADP of 3.01 in 12-team standard scoring leagues according to Fantasy Football Calculator. He is a value at that point of any fantasy draft. Jeffery has a quarterback in Cutler whom he has played with since he entered the NFL. Cutler also has the arm strength to deliver the football to Jeffery on vertical routes. He should receive a ton of targets in the “Demaryius Thomas” role of Gase’s offensive scheme. Thomas was targeted 178 times last season and had a Pro Football Focus Points-per-Opportunity (PPO) of 0.39 in standard scoring leagues. The irony is that Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown also had the same number of targets and PPO as Thomas. He finished as the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver while Thomas finished shortly behind Packers Nelson for No. 3. Jeffery finished last season with a PPO of 0.28 and 2013 with 0.31. This could be the year Jeffery takes his game to another level for a memorable fantasy season.

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