Anyone who has seen the movie Office Space knows it’s not wise to jump to conclusions, whether you have a mat or not. As we enter Week 2, a quick reminder about some of last season’s Week 1 darlings, from Allen Hurns to Cordarrelle Patterson to Knowshon Moreno, each of whom was a top-10 fantasy scorer this time last year. The list of Week 1 “busts” is too long to rehash.
Along those same lines, keep in mind the NFL is a league of weekly adjustments. So don’t expect every defense that got lit up in the opener to automatically spend the next few months as a matchup doormat, and vice versa.
Point being, one week of data is far too small a sample size to draw any definitive conclusions. I like to look at Week 4, when 25 percent of the fantasy season is in the rearview mirror, as you-know-what-or-get-off-the-pot time. Granted, if one of your key players suffered an injury in Week 1, you are obviously scouring the waiver wire.
Below we’ll take a look at the Week 2 installment of 5 Burning Questions to try and make sense of some of the more eye-opening performances from last week’s opening slate.
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1) What’s up with the Colts’ passing game?
Andrew Luck’s debut in Buffalo was less than stellar, as he threw for only 243 yards and matched his two touchdowns with a pair of interceptions to finish tied for 11th in fantasy points.
Per Pro Football Focus, Luck’s 41.7-percent accuracy rate when under pressure was 26th-best among quarterbacks in Week 1, and both of his picks came on blitzes. For comparison’s sake, that mark was 60 percent last season, which was middle of the pack. His 38.7 QBR was more than doubled by counterpart Tyrod Taylor (88.2).
This week when the Jets pay a visit on Monday night, Luck may be without favorite target T.Y. Hilton, while veteran newcomer Andre Johnson (-2.1 PFF receiving grade) did not exactly inspire confidence after hauling in only four of 10 targets for 24 yards. Still, Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis knows better, telling the New York Post that Luck presents “every challenge in the book.”
“He’s a star,” Revis said. “He’s the total package. He can make every throw, very smart. I think a lot of people don’t give him credit for his scrambling ability. He can scramble and run.”
WEEK 2 OUTLOOK
Even without Hilton, who was targeted 14 times against the Bills before exiting, there is more than enough sample size with Luck to feel good about his chances to bounce back on Monday night. Look for Donte Moncrief to have an expanded role after posting six catches for 46 yards and a score in the opener. The Jets defense did force four takeaways against the Browns last week, but that was at home against the combination of Johnny Manziel and Josh McCown. When Luck lines up under center inside Lucas Oil Stadium, you can hear a pin drop, hence his 100.2 passer rating at home last season. Was last week’s clunker an aberration? You betcha.
2) Is Tyrod Taylor worth an add?
First, the good. Tyrod Taylor, who beat out Matt Cassel and E.J. Manuel for the Bills’ starting quarterback job, completed 74 percent of his 19 attempts and did not turn the ball over in Buffalo’s Week 1 win over Indianapolis. Taylor was also not sacked the entire game as he went 5-of-8 for 74 yards and posted a 92.7 QB rating when pressured, per Pro Football Focus. He also knew when to take off running, as he rushed nine times for 41 yards, which equaled LeSean McCoy’s ground total on eight fewer attempts (more on that in a moment). The result was a solid, not spectacular, 16 fantasy points.
Now, for the other side of the coin. Taylor attempted just five throws beyond 10 yards, as he effectively managed the game by playing mistake-free football within a conservative offensive scheme that did not ask him to do much on his own. Of course, there is also the matter of sample size, or lack thereof, considering Taylor was a career backup through his first four pro seasons who attempted only 35 throws before Sunday.
WEEK 2 OUTLOOK
This is another case for leaving your conclusions mat stored away in the closet, at least for another week. True, New England gave up 351 yards through the air in its opener, but that was against Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and company. The Patriots will undoubtedly give Taylor a number of different looks to try and make him uncomfortable. He is our No. 23 QB in the Week 2 expert consensus rankings (ECR27 rest of season) and is owned in only 17 percent of ESPN leagues (started in two percent). As such, it’s safe to leave him on your waiver wire for now, even in 2QB leagues. We’ll find out after this week’s test whether winning Buffalo’s quarterback competition was akin to being the coolest cast member of Jersey Shore.
3) Will James Jones see enough targets to warrant starting?
Receivers have dropped like flies, so it’s understandable that fantasy owners scurried to the waiver wire this week to find suitable replacements. One of the top adds entering Week 2 is Green Bay’s James Jones, who was reacquired by the Packers less than a week before the opener and is now owned in 78 percent of ESPN leagues.
You may recall that Jones caught a league-high 14 touchdowns from Aaron Rodgers in 2012. That accounted for a Terrance Williams-like 22 percent of his reception total that year. So perhaps it was not all that surprising that Mr. Doublecheck tossed four passes Jones’ way against Chicago in Week 1, two of which found pay dirt. To his credit, he did catch all four of his targets for 51 yards, and he trailed only Davante Adams in snaps (55) among Packers receivers. But also keep in mind the 31-year-old has never averaged better than 58 yards per game, meaning if the touchdowns aren’t there, he is likely a wasted spot in your lineup.
WEEK 2 OUTLOOK
Is Jones worth a roster spot? Certainly, go ahead and grab him if you are in one of the 22 percent of leagues that he remains unowned. He’ll be more of a FLEX consideration most weeks, as currently Jones is being started in only 28 percent of ESPN leagues.
Is he worth a starting spot at home against Seattle? Well, if you are one of the Jones owners who got bit by the WR injury bug in Week 1, consider that he’ll most often be lined up across from Cary Williams, which the folks at Pro Football Focus have graded as the 6th-most attractive WR-CB matchup this week (0.35 advantage score for Jones). Just know that he carries an ECR as the WR39 this week, so only roll with him if you lack better options.
4) Will LeSean McCoy bounce back?
It wasn’t exactly the debut Bills fans hoped to see when the team traded 2013 Defensive Player of the Year Kiko Alonso for three-time Pro Bowler LeSean McCoy, who averaged a dismal 2.4 yards on 17 rushes against Indianapolis in Week 1. The tape shows McCoy failing to hit holes with conviction, which was part of the reason Eagles coach Chip Kelly was comfortable parting ways. That, along with Shady’s frequency of negative runs and declining rushing average (5.1 YPC in 2013 to 4.2 YPC in 2014).
Of course, there is also the matter of the hamstring injury that McCoy suffered in training camp and has since lingered. He was added to the Bills injury report on Thursday, with coach Rex Ryan saying he had to “back out” of practice due to the hamstring being “a little tight and a little sore.” Still, Ryan left out hope that McCoy can still play Sunday, although the situation is obviously fluid and not ideal.
On top of all that, don’t forget about rookie Karlos Williams, who vultured a score on his first pro carry in the opener and looked far more effective with a team-high 55 yards on only six carries. Williams was a fifth-round pick who ran a 4.48 40 at 230 pounds, and he played well enough in the preseason for the Bills to cut loose both Fred Jackson and Bryce Brown (for whom they traded a third-round pick).
WEEK 2 OUTLOOK
Due to the injury alone, even if he plays McCoy is too risky an option for my blood against the Patriots this week. New England has had a long week to tighten up defensively after getting gashed by DeAngelo Williams for 127 yards last Thursday. Don’t expect a repeat, as the Patriots will not be afraid to load up the box to try and stop Buffalo’s running game and test Taylor. But if you are a McCoy owner and Williams is still available in your league, he shouldn’t be. For the season, McCoy will still dazzle occasionally, but it would be wise to reset expectations to more of a RB2 return moving forward.
5) What will the Redskins’ offense look like minus DeSean Jackson?
DeSean Jackson came up lame with a left hamstring injury during the second drive of the Redskins’ Week 1 contest, and the offense never seemed to recover as they wound up falling to the Dolphins, 17-10. It has been a long summer for Jackson, who missed all of the preseason after spraining the AC joint in his shoulder in early-August and now will miss the next three-to-four weeks.
What Jackson brings to an offense is his ability to lift the top off an opposing defense, as he posted 1,169 receiving yards last season and led the league with 20.9 yards per catch. As coach Jay Gruden noted this week, “Nobody can substitute him for that burning speed that gets downfield and scares safeties and corners to death, backs people up. Teams are able to play a little bit tighter coverage when he’s out of the game. Safeties can creep up a little bit. It’s a big loss.”
Left behind in Jackson’s wake is a cast of receivers including Pierre Garcon, speedster Rashad Ross, second-year pro Ryan Grant, veteran Andre Roberts, and rookie Jamison Crowder.
WEEK 2 OUTLOOK
Garcon gets a slight bump in value, but his ECR for this week against St. Louis is only at No. 35 among WRs. After catching 113 passes in 2013, his reception total dipped all the way down to 68 last season, and he has since moved over to the Z receiver spot. Put simply, he shouldn’t be in your starting lineup this week against a Rams’ front-seven that will be in Kirk Cousins’ face from the opening whistle. Without the deep threat, the Redskins will also face more crowded boxes, which will have a domino effect on the running game with Alfred Morris and Matt Jones.
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Mike Castiglione is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, you can view his archive or follow him @RickDancin.