Welcome to a new weekly article where I will be analyzing FanDuel projected ownership and providing insight on how to use these numbers to your advantage.
If you are not familiar with FanDuel you must be living a tech-free lifestyle. Wait, you have to use a computer or a smartphone to read this analysis. Then I guess you must be living under a rock, because FanDuel is one of the most popular sites for DFS (daily fantasy sports). The site pays out millions of dollars in winnings each week. If you need instructions on how DFS on FanDuel works, click here.
Now, onto the nitty gritty! Knowing the projected ownership percentage before you set your lineups each week can be a big advantage, especially in GPP (guaranteed prize pool) tournaments. Typically the top performing teams, the ones who walk away with the most cash, have a combination of highly-owned superstars and barely-owned value guys. The key is choosing the value guy who ends up with superstar numbers. This task is not as easy as it sounds. Ask those who played Adrian Peterson or Dez Bryant in Week 1. If it was that easy I would be a billionaire!
Before we dive into this week’s projections, I want to take a look at the lineup of the million-dollar winner from Week 1. Last week on FanDuel, the player who took home the grand prize set a lineup exactly like I described above. He chose Alex Smith (0.6% owned), Jamaal Charles (5.6% owned), Carlos Hyde (2.2% owned), Julio Jones (30.5% owned), Percy Harvin (0.5% owned), DeAndre Hopkins (3.3% owned), Tyler Eifert (4.8% owned), Steven Hauschka (3.3% owned), and finally San Francisco’s defense (0.6% owned). The winner had a lineup with only one player who had higher than 10% ownership. This might not work every week, but you cannot take home big money unless you have some diversity. Now let us take a look at Week 2.
Low Ownership Players to Target
Ryan Tannehill – MIA @ JAC – $8,000 (3.7% owned)
Tannehill had a subpar game against Washington in Week 1. However, he still managed over 200 yards and a passing TD. Tannehill has a slightly better matchup this week against Jacksonville. Look for the Miami offense and Tannehill to improve in Week 2.
Adrian Peterson – MIN vs. DET – $9,000 (4.4% owned)
I am very shocked at the low ownership of Peterson. I know he struggled in Week 1, but we must remember he has not played in a year. Furthermore, Minnesota abandoned the run. I am confident Peterson sees closer to 20 carries this week and rebounds from Week 1. Detroit gave up the seventh most fantasy points to the RB position last week.
High Ownership Players to Still Target
Carson Palmer – ARI @ CHI – $7,800 (13.5% owned)
Palmer is 7-0 since last year. He has thrown 14 touchdowns and only three interceptions during that span. Look for him to continue his dominant play against a weak Bears’ secondary who allowed the fifth most points to the QB position in Week 1.
Brandin Cooks – NO vs. TB – $7,400 (20.4% owned)
Cooks did not put up big numbers in Week 1, but he faced off against a difficult Arizona defense. This week Cooks is going up against a Tampa Bay defense who let up the third most points to the QB position and the seventh most points to the WR position. Look for that trend to continue in Week 2.
High Ownership Players to Avoid
Nick Foles – STL @ WAS – $6,500 (5.1% owned)
Look, I get it. Foles had a decent Week 1 and his price tag is appealing. However, he is going up against a Washington defense that might be better than expected. Washington held Ryan Tannehill to under 15 points and Foles does not have the weapons at the skill positions like Miami. With so many people jumping on the Foles train this weekend, it will be wise to look elsewhere.
Carlos Hyde – SF @ PIT – $7,000 (37.6% owned)
Hyde was the steal of the week in Week 1. He had a low cost and put up the most points at the RB position on FanDuel. His price tag is very reasonable again this week, but I am not sold on Hyde being that explosive in Week 2. Pittsburgh will play better than Minnesota and there is a good chance SF will have to air it out more as they play from behind. I will admit Hyde surprised me and looks to be a more reliable fantasy option than I thought he was going to be. However, I think he will be inconsistent. If you look at his games in 2014, Hyde was up and down almost every other week with his yards per carry average. Hyde should come back down to earth this week and since he is the highest owned RB for Week 2, you will have a better chance at winning big dollars with a guy like Justin Forsett or DeMarco Murry.
Players Worth Targeting by Position
Quarterbacks
- Drew Brees vs. TB – $8,900 (18.3% owned)
- Matt Ryan @ NYG – $8,700 (4.0% owned)
- Andy Dalton vs. SD – $6,900 (2.3% owned)
- Tony Romo @ PHI – $6,900 (3.1% owned)
- Cam Newton vs. HOU – $7,700 (0.7% owned)
Running Backs
- Jonathan Stewart vs. HOU – $6,800 (0.7% owned)
- Melvin Gordon @ CIN – $6,500 (0.5% owned)
- Rashad Jennings vs. ATL – $6,400 (1.7% owned)
- Chris Ivory @ IND – $6,900 (20.7% owned)
- Jeremy Hill vs. SD – $8,400 (9.4% owned)
Wide Receivers
- Julio Jones @ NYG – $8,800 (24.8% owned)
- Jarvis Landry @ JAC – $7,100 (17.9% owned)
- Vincent Jackson @ NO – $7,200 (1.1% owned)
- Charles Johnson vs. DET – $5,400 (0.9% owned)
- Pierre Garcon vs. STL – $5,400 (3.1% owned)
Tight Ends
- Jordan Reed vs. STL – $5,000 (3.0% owned)
- Kyle Rudolph vs. DET – $5,100 (1.2% owned)
- Jimmy Graham @ GB – $7,100 (4.2% owned)
- Vernon Davis @ PIT – $5,100 (1.6% owned)
- Martellus Bennett vs. ARI – $6,100 (5.2% owned)
Kickers
- Matt Prater @ MIN – $4,700 (1.7% owned)
- Cody Parkey vs. DAL – $5,000 (2.5% owned)
- Chandler Catanzaro @ CHI – $4,700 (2.3% owned)
- Josh Brown @ ATL – $4,500 (17.1% owned)
- Robbie Gould vs. ARI – $4,800 (4.3% owned)
DST
- Miami Dolphins DST @ JAC – $5,100 (18.3% owned)
- Tennessee Titans DST @ CLE – $4,600 (5.6% owned)
- Arizona Cardinals DST @ CHI – $4,600 (2.8% owned)
- New England Patriots DST @ BUF – $4,300 (2.0% owned)
- Minnesota Vikings DST vs. DET – $4,400 (0.5% owned)
Good luck as you set your lineups and try and win some cash, just not in the tournaments I am playing in.
Rob Schwarz, Jr. is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Rob, check out his archive and follow him @ChiSportsnut25.