Yahoo DFS Lineup Advice: Week 3

Donte Moncrief and the Colts will look for their first win of 2015 against the Titans

Yahoo! Sports Daily Fantasy is one of the newest players on the scene for daily fantasy. However, their contests are very similar to the offerings of DraftKings and FanDuel and include plenty of both tournament and cash play opportunities. The scoring of Yahoo! Daily Fantasy is similar to the default scoring settings on yearly Yahoo! Leagues, though it is .5 PPR. Before you place your lineup, make sure you are familiar with the scoring, which you can find here.

The pricing and salary cap set-up are different from both DraftKings and FanDuel and are worth noting. The budget for a lineup is $200, and this week the most expensive player is Tom Brady at $46, while the minimum salary is $10.

In terms of setting a lineup, the Vegas lines are my favorite asset outside a player’s skill level. More specifically, I use Oddshark.com, which uses the Vegas lines and its computer program to predict how many points each team will score in a given week. The top offenses of the week, according to these simulations, are the Seahawks (29.2), Patriots (29.1), Cardinals (29.1), Cowboys (27), Rams (27), Texans (26.6), Falcons (26.1), Steelers (26.1), and Panthers (25.3). The lowest scoring offenses according to the simulations are the Bears (15.2), Jaguars (17), Chiefs (18.7), Raiders (18.8), and Buccaneers (18.8). While there are plenty of other factors to consider, an immediate goal of mine is to get shares in my lineup from at least some of the top projected offenses of the week.

With that framework set, here are my picks of the week and the logic behind each of them.

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Quarterback

Nick Foles – STL – $33

The elite quarterbacks will cost at least $40, or 1/5 of the allotted budget. That is not a price I am willing to pay because every week there will be several lower cost quarterbacks who will perform solidly for your team. This week I’ll place my faith in Foles. He failed to follow up his surprising Week 1 performance with anything spectacular in Week 2, but this week he heads back home. More importantly, Foles will face the Pittsburgh Steelers defense, which has allowed the second most passing TDs (6) in the NFL and is in the bottom third in nearly every passing defense metric. Vegas and Oddshark seem to see Rams as a high-scoring offense, and with that I am expecting Foles to record his first multi-touchdown performance of the season.

Running Backs

Lance Dunbar – DAL – $13

Not only are the Cowboys one of the better projected offenses of the week, but they are running out of weapons on offense with the loss of Dez Bryant, Tony Romo, and the shaky health of Jason Witten. While Romo’s injury is bad news for the likes of Terrance Williams, it is good news for Dunbar as he should be the target of plenty of Brandon Weeden’s checkdown passes this week. The cherry on top for Dunbar’s matchup is the receiving success we have seen backs have against the Falcons (see Darren Sproles in Week 1 and Shane Vereen in Week 2).

Justin Forsett – BAL – $29

The price tag is a bit hefty for a player that has failed to live up to expectations to this point in the season. However, the Ravens head home for the first time, and they consistently have one of the best records at home. I predict the Ravens to try to control the game through time of possession, which spells a big week for Forsett. An added bonus to Forsett is that his receiving ability provides a safe floor for his fantasy value.

Wide Receivers

Emmanuel Sanders – DEN – $30

Sanders’ public proclamation that his production was in for a fall this season has turned out to be quite misleading. In fact, he has been targeted more than Demaryius Thomas and has been the WR Mannning has looked to and connected with in the end zone. As far as the matchup, Detroit hasn’t been especially vulnerable to the pass, but they have forced only two sacks on the season. That should give Peyton Manning more time than he has been used to this season, which makes me want to invest in a share of the Broncos receiving corps this week.

Donte Moncrief – IND – $19

With T.Y. Hilton clearly not playing at 100%, Moncrief has essentially become the Colts No. 1 receiver for the time being. Tennessee has gotten immense pressure on the quarterback, as they lead the league in sacks, but that has been the case the first few weeks and Moncrief has still managed consistent targets, receptions, and touchdowns. We have seen the solid floor of Moncrief, which I am happy to invest in for the favorable cost of $19. If this is the week the Colts offense gets on track, $19 will look like quite the bargain.

Antonio Brown – PIT – $39

Little need be said about Brown at this point. The biggest downside is that he will be widely owned (which isn’t a negative in cash games), but that just makes it more important to distinguish your lineup at other positions. With Dunbar, Cook, and Matthews, I am confident this lineup will still be unique enough.

Tight End

Jared Cook – STL – $15

Foles needs to target someone with his passes in the Rams offense and looking at possible options Cook stands at the top of the list. Cook has received six and seven targets respectively in Weeks 1 and 2, and he has been able to haul in a high percentage of the passes that have come his way. Given the success of Vernon Davis last week against the Steelers defense, I love the chances of Cook hauling in his first touchdown reception of the season.

Flex

Rishard Matthews – MIA – $12

At this price, Matthews is a steal. Although he has been the third option behind Jarvis Landry and Jordan Cameron in the Dolphins offense, Cameron will either not play or will be hampered by a groin injury this week. Even as the third option, Matthews has 13 targets to this point, so he should have plenty of opportunity in a very important game for the Dolphins.

Defense/Special Teams

Green Bay Packers DEF – $10

By now we know the Packers run defense is staunch at home, and we also know that the Chiefs don’t like to throw touchdowns to their wide receivers. Given that combination, I am not overly concerned by the fact that the Packers haven’t been especially threatening to opposing quarterbacks in recording only two sacks, no interceptions, and two forced fumbles in the first two weeks of the season. The Chiefs offense doesn’t intimidate anyone, Jamaal Charles has had fumbling issues, and they have surrendered eight sacks to this point in the season.

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Daniel Marcus is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Daniel, check out his archive or follow him @danmarcus3