Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 4

Every week, there are going to be must-start players who bomb. Subsequently, there are players who will blow up but were under the radar. For this reason, we’ll take a closer look at one overvalued player and one undervalued player per position.

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Last week we had some mixed results on both sides of the coin. For those who were overvalued, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Forte, and DeAndre Hopkins played below their rank as suggested. Crockett Gillmore and Josh Scobee were right at their rank, and the St. Louis Rams, in a loss, still produced DST7 numbers, above their DST14 rank, largely due to the Ben Roethlisberger injury. Check out the chart below for the actual tale of the tape:

Record so far: 15-2-1

For those undervalued, we were right about Blake Bortles and Ameer Abdullah outplaying their rank. Bortles got some garbage time points in the 51-17 loss to New England, and Abdullah salvaged a miserable performance by the Lions’ offense with a touchdown in a home loss Sunday night. The pick I am most proud of is Gary Barnidge, coming in as the 26^th ranked tight end and finishing up with TE2 numbers against the Raiders. I was wrong about Doug Baldwin running over the Bears’ defense, the Falcons’ played right at their DST21 rank, and Robbie Gould ended up as the 32^nd ranked kicker because the Bears did not score. Oops. Check it all out below:

Record so far: 7-9-2

Week 4 is here and so are bye weeks. New England and Tennessee are off this week leaving us with 30 teams to choose from. People that have ridden Tom Brady, Dion Lewis, Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman will need to find a stopgap, hoping to survive Week 4. After this week, the regular season will be one-third complete, and we are still waiting for the likes of DeMarco Murray, C.J. Anderson, Justin Forsett, LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Hill, and Jonathan Stewart to get going. At least the rankings are starting to catch up to their slow starts. If these guys ever break out, hopefully you had enough patience to keep them in your lineup.

With that being said, we explore this week’s rankings. With the injuries, lack of performance, bye weeks, and the random variances in snap count and usage that we all love on Sundays, let’s look for some wrinkles in the rankings!

Who is too high? Who is too low?

As always, we will be using our Week 4 ECR Rankings as a reference.

Quarterback

Overvalued: Michael Vick (QB16 vs. BAL)
This situation is a travesty given the amount of weapons the Steelers have. Ben Roethlisberger goes down and Vick steps in. Every single time the Steelers have gone away from Roethlisberger due to injury or suspension, the offense becomes a shell of its former self. Charlie Batch, Byron Leftwich, David Garrard – whoever – the offense does not move as well. If there is a way to make Vick as valuable as “Big Ben” because of Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, let’s see it first. Hard to imagine it happening on a short week with rival Baltimore coming into town at 0-3, desperate for a win. If I’m wrong, great, but I don’t think I will be.

Undervalued: Blake Bortles (QB20 at IND)
This will be back-to-back weeks I think Bortles can outplay his ranking. The Colts have struggled with pass defense all season and have yet to play a top-tier quarterback. In the first three games, they have played Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Marcus Mariota and have given up 806 yards and five touchdown passes. The Colts have played most of this season without their full cornerback corps and now it’s the Jaguars’ turn to take advantage of that.

Running back

Overvalued: Jeremy Hill (RB15 vs KC)
Hill is ranked higher than Gio Bernard this week but has been on the field less than Bernard and has been outplayed by him when he has gotten a chance to play. The Chiefs have not been kind to opposing running backs this season, with Eddie Lacy’s 46 yards the high so far in rushing yards and have not given up a rushing or receiving touchdown to a back this year. If Hill does get enough touches to justify his ranking this week, it’s hard to imagine a productive game for him and Bernard, who is currently ranked 19^th.

Undervalued: Ronnie Hillman (RB37 vs. MIN)
Hillman is RB37 but Anderson is RB20? Like the Bernard/Hill situation, Anderson has done nothing so far this season to justify that ranking and for Hillman to be as low as he is seems questionable. While neither back has been able to get going, Hillman leads Anderson in yards 88-74 and touchdowns 1-0, in four less carries. While neither set of numbers stands out, Anderson does not deserve to be 17 ranks higher than Hillman.

Wide receiver

Overvalued: Jordan Matthews (WR13 at WAS)
Matthews’ targets have decreased each week so far this season and it’s hard to see him as a top 15 receiver especially with that Eagles offense being so strange this season. Outside of a last minute garbage time touchdown for Matthews in Week 2, he has been shutout of the end zone so far this season. Sam Bradford only has three touchdown passes this year and two are to running backs. I’m not forgetting that the Redskins defensive backs are banged up, I’m just not putting too much stock in Matthews being the main beneficiary of it.

Undervalued: Allen Hurns (WR36 at IND)
Another Jaguar on this list. In all three games this season, WR2 has prospered for Colts’ opponents as their only shut down corner Vontae Davis has taken on Sammy Watkins, Brandon Marshall, and Dorial Green-Beckham, leaving Percy Harvin (5/79/1), Eric Decker (8/97/1), and Kendall Wright (7/95/1) to have huge games. If Davis is on Allen Robinson, then Hurns should benefit from this coverage and have another huge game.

Tight end

Overvalued: Tyler Eifert (TE5 vs. KC)
Kansas City has given up only 11 catches, 93 yards, and one touchdown to opposing tight ends so far this season. That comes out to 3.6 catches, 31 yards, and 0.33 touchdowns per game, or four standard fantasy points a game. Hardly TE5 quality trends to hang your hat on. Eifert, after a hot start, totaled zero fantasy points last week (although there was a questionable “drop” at the goal line). Still, until the sample size is bigger, it’s hard to put too much stock in his first two games seeing how tight ends have used Oakland as a turnstile and the San Diego defense has given up scores to tight ends in two of the first three games this year.

Undervalued: Maxx Williams (TE21 at PIT)
With Crockett Gillmore out Thursday for Baltimore, the Ravens will turn to rookie Maxx Williams to handle the tight end duties. Gillmore posted a huge game Week 2 before getting hurt last week. Williams should be utilized just as much as the Steelers have allowed the second most touchdowns to tight ends this year and are tied for the second most fantasy points given up to the position.

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In order to provide as much fantasy relevant information possible, we will be eliminating the defense and kicker portion of this article as there are more important things to worry about with the bulk of a fantasy team. Defense and kicker, outside of the exceptions, are typically streamed and have variance tied to it that go beyond the scope of this article. Instead, we want to introduce a new segment…

Trends to Monitor

The Atlanta defense has given up the most points to opposing running backs, and a league high 41 targets for 36 catches 317 yards. They have also given up the most rushing touchdowns, with six. If you have Arian Foster, or whoever plays running back in Houston this week, this can be a huge opportunity, especially in PPR.

The Bears defense has allowed the second most passing touchdowns this year with eight, including seven at home. Derek Carr and the Raiders come into town and their new-look offense may light up the scoreboard in Chicago. They have also given up seven touchdowns to opposing wide receivers, so Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree owners may benefit.

As we mentioned last week and earlier in this article, Oakland has given up the most receptions, yards, and touchdowns to opposing tight ends, and Martellus Bennett is looking for a breakout game. If it’s Jay Cutler under center for the Bears this week, look for them to take advantage. If it’s Jimmy Clausen, there may be problems for Bennett. Still, something to pay attention to moving forward.

Michael Vincent is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MVtweetshere.