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Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 8

Oct 30, 2015

Aaron Rodgers might not be able to return value against a tough Broncos' defense

Aaron Rodgers might not be able to return value against a tough Broncos’ defense

Week 7 has come and gone and man, it is refreshing to get back on the right track. After a “character builder” Week 6 where most of the analysis blew up in my face, we got rolling again in Week 7 with a 6-1-1 mark and hope to build on that in Week 8.

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Week 7 Recap

At quarterback, Sam Bradford turned in another poor prime-time performance, finishing as the 24th ranked quarterback of Week 7, eight spots below is QB16 predicted rank. Fellow first-overall pick Jameis Winston finished as QB9, outperforming his QB24 prediction.

At running back, Dion Lewis did not end up playing so he was definitely not RB9. Adrian Peterson, battling either a shellfish allergy, or he swallowed tobacco on a plane, or something, finished as RB18, unable to take advantage of a favorable matchup against the Lions.

At receiver, Antonio Brown, while finishing in the top 15 for the first time in a month, still finished as WR12, three below his predicted ranking. Danny Amendola did his best Julian Edelman impression, putting up an 8/86/1 line as he finished as the ninth ranked receiver for Week 7, much better than his WR45 predicted ranking.

We were also accurate with our tight end advice, as Greg Olsen finished as TE16 after he was ranked TE3 at the beginning of the week. The ghost of Vernon Davis made an appearance this week and he showed what he could do when healthy, finishing as TE14 this week, well above his TE26 predicted ranking.

Last week’s numbers are below:

Overvalued
Player Projected Actual
Sam Bradford QB16 QB24
Dion Lewis RB9 DNP
Antonio Brown WR9 WR12
Greg Olsen TE3 TE16
Record so far: 25-7-2
Undervalued
Player Projected Actual
Jameis Winston QB24 QB9
Adrian Peterson RB5 RB18
Danny Amendola WR45 WR9
Vernon Davis TE26 TE14
Record so far: 16-15-3

Week 8 Predictions

Onto Week 8! Philadelphia, Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Washington are on bye. Green Bay, Cincinnati, Denver, and Chicago all return to action this week. We also lost our second RB1 of the season as Arian Foster joined Jamaal Charles on IR for the remainder of the year, putting a dent in lineups all around the fantasy world. I wonder if someone out there had their draft in early August, after the initial Foster injury, but before the Kelvin Benjamin and Jordy Nelson injuries and had Charles, Nelson, Benjamin as their top three picks, and took a late gamble on Foster. And I feel so bad for that person.

Anyway, who is too high? Who is too low?

As always, we will be using our Weekly ECR Rankings (PPR format) as a reference.

Quarterback

Overvalued: Aaron Rodgers (QB5 at DEN)
Cannot wait to get raked over the coals for this one, but right now Denver’s defense is playing better than any unit in the league over the last few seasons. Rodgers and the Packers’ offense is not the same on the road, and Rodgers is also a different QB away from Lambeau, throwing for 25 less touchdowns and 11 more interceptions on the road (59 home games, 57 road games) over his career. Right now, the Broncos are allowing the least amount of fantasy points to QBs, and have only given up five touchdown passes to nine interceptions. With Randall Cobb and Eddie Lacy struggling as of late, and Rodgers’ $9000 value on Fan Duel, you might want you allot your dollars elsewhere.

Undervalued: Jay Cutler (QB16 vs. MIN)
Cutler has played well against the Minnesota Vikings during his career, with an 8-3 record, throwing 23 touchdowns to 13 interceptions. He has also thrown at least three touchdown passes against them on five different occasions. The Bears’ skill position players are getting healthy and coming off the bye; this could be a great value start, especially in DFS, where he would only cost you $7300 to start him.

Running Back

Overvalued: Matt Forte (RB4 vs. MIN)
Forte, also in 13 career games against the Vikings, has only managed two total touchdowns, one in the air and one on the ground, since 2008. Both in 2008. He has averaged four receptions and 100 total yards in those 13 games, but this season the Vikings have yielded the sixth least fantasy points to running backs. Forte, his RB4 rank, and his $8200 price tag on FanDuel have me looking in another direction.

Undervalued: Eddie Lacy (RB23 at DEN)
Another guy the world is ready to write off. James Starks is dealing with an injury and if the Broncos are primed to stop the pass, they may be susceptible to run this week. They have given up six total touchdowns in their first six games to opposing running backs and if Lacy is the bell-cow he should be, they may lean on him to keep the defense honest. He is bound to breakout and a game where no one gives him any chance to may be the right place. His FanDuel price has dropped to $6700, so if you want a high-ceiling guy with a low price tag, go with Lacy.

Wide Receiver

Overvalued: T.Y. Hilton (WR21 at CAR)
You’ve heard of Revis’ Island, but after listening to a fantasy football segment earlier today, we now have “Norman’s-Land” for Josh Norman, the up and coming Carolina Panthers’ cornerback. Norman has shut down WR1 all season, and was quoted this week saying he will miss being thrown to. Hilton had a HUGE game last week against the Saints, but both of his touchdown receptions came on long, broken plays. Andrew Luck is still not the guy we saw last season and if the Norman and the Panthers defense continues to play at a high level, Hilton will be hoping for garbage time production or a broken play to put up his points.

Undervalued: Dez Bryant (WR40 vs. SEA)
Ease him in, they say. There may even be some analysts who will tell you to bench Bryant until you get an idea of what his usage will be. And I ask why? You’ve held onto him for this long. If he’s healthy, he will play. Seattle’s defense on the road is not what it is at home, and it is definitely what it was in years past. No other receiver for Dallas has stepped up to even give the illusion that they may get more targets during Bryant’s absence. If Bryant plays, he will be a top-20 start. Book it.

Tight End

Overvalued: Jimmy Graham (TE7 at DAL)
Dallas has only allowed one touchdown to tight ends this season and the fifth least points to opposing ends. This includes Rob Gronkowski in Week 5, person who thinks that using fantasy points allowed is a flawed metric. Graham has also put up pedestrian numbers against the Cowboys. In his previous four meetings with Dallas, he has averaged 5.8 catches and 44 yards with only one touchdown. And that’s when he was part of a prolific offense. Now, on Seattle, where he is seemingly lost in the shuffle, don’t expect too much. In three of his four road games, he has been held to three or less catches and 31 or less yards, with his lone road touchdown coming in Week 1 at St. Louis. You have to start him, but stop expecting anything. His $6100 price tag on FanDuel is fourth among tight ends, behind only Greg Olsen and Gary Barnidge. Use that budget wisely.

Undervalued: Jeff Cumberland (TE25 at OAK)
Is Jeff Cumberland even a thing anymore? It doesn’t matter! He’s a tight end going up against the Oakland Raiders. Over their first six games, they have allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends, including 37 receptions, 438 yards, and seven touchdown catches. If Jeff Cumberland is ever going to be fantasy relevant this year, this might be the time to start. You can get him for $4600 on FanDuel this week if you want to stack elsewhere and play the matchup at tight end.

FanDuel Value Thoughts

  • I’m not a fan of assuming shelf-lives on running backs, so it’s good to see Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden get another crack at starting and being relevant parts of offenses. I openly admit I had no faith in either and missed out on both of them in all seven of my leagues. My bad.

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Let’s see how it goes!

Michael Vincent is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MVtweetshere.

Busts, Correspondent, Featured, NFL, Sleepers