Going into the season, Lamar Miller could have been considered a “sleeper” for some, with the potential of being an RB1. Within the first five weeks of the season, you either traded him, benched him or released him if you were crazy enough. Let’s take a look at the “new” Lamar Miller.
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The majority of the time, we tend to favor the player and never consider the system the player is playing in. Aaron Rodgers, Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown, Tony Romo and Jimmy Graham are some of the players that are affected, positively or negatively by their system. For example, take a look at Jimmy Graham. In New Orleans, Jimmy Graham averaged 137 targets per season. This season, with the Seahawks, Graham is on pace for 90 targets, a drop of 47 targets.
Now let’s take a look at Lamar Miller and see how or if the system upgrades his fantasy value. Last season, Miller never had a game where he carried the football more than 19 times. Miller finished the 2014 season with 5.1 yards per carry. Joe Philbin had commented before the season began that Lamar Miller’s carries would be similar to last year’s, and this created hesitation in drafting him. Dan Campbell, the new interim head coach for the Miami Dolphins, has committed to running the football. This system change will lead to more touches and equally more yards for running back Lamar Miller, only adding to his fantasy value.
Matthew Berry ranked Miller as the 21st-ranked fantasy player and the 12th best running back going into this season. From what was mentioned early Miller should be able to finish in the top-10 once again this season. In the first game under Dan Campbell, the Dolphins rushed the ball 32 times with 15 of those carries going to Miller- in the first half. Miller would have received more touches if the game was closer against Tennessee.
However, Miller had 37 carries for 131 yards (3.5 YPC) and zero touchdowns going into Week 6. Against the Tennessee Titans and their 28th-ranked run defense (first in pass defense) Miller carried the ball 19 times for 113 yards and a touchdown.
Miller should be on “probation” and you do not want to jump on the bandwagon too early or lose running back depth because you traded him away. More importantly do not go and give up everything to get him either. One game is a small sample size to make a season long decision on Miller. If he can put up similar numbers on successive weeks, then he might be able to make the jump from a high RB2 to a low-end or mid-tier RB1.
When all is said and done, I will bet on Miller. He’s a guy who has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over his career, and he’s in a system that will allow him to touch the ball at least 20 times. Just remember, we have all found out this fantasy season, the best prediction we can make is only a guess.
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Israel Katz is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Israel, check out his archive and follow him @ir7dj2.