Jamie Calandro discusses how to win head-to-head matchups on DraftKings.
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Anyone will tell you that if you’re just starting out in DFS, it’s best to get your feet wet in the “cash games” (head-to-heads, 50/50s, double-ups). Don’t attempt to tackle the glitzy large-field tournaments right out of the gate. The question is, what cash games are best to try? Often you’ll find the sharks swimming in the big double ups with 50+ line-ups, so your advantage dwindles there as well. I prefer the head-to-heads, especially on DraftKings and their PPR format, and I’m here to help you learn some basic tips on how to beat multiple opponents and build your bankroll.
1) Know your opponents
I can’t stress this enough. If you open up DraftKings right now and click on a $5 head-to-head, you’ll see thousands of available contests, and you’ll think, “Does it matter which one I join?” Trust me. It matters. There are some heavy hitters in this industry just lurking to take your bankroll and don’t think for a second that they stay out of the small-money games. It’s important to do some diligent research and find out who are the people you should be avoiding as a beginner. You can look up players’ stats on various sites, so this isn’t a secret. Another thing that should send up a red flag are the players with a ton of multi-entry head-to-heads. If someone can put up 50-60 $5 contests, it’s safe to assume they’ve built up a solid bankroll, most likely by winning.
2) Target high-floor players
Remember, you don’t have to get cute to win a head-to-head. Ownership percentages do not matter, and it’s not necessary to find that crazy contrarian play that will pass for four touchdowns at very low ownership levels (like Marcus Mariota). You should be looking for players with a high market share of red zone opportunities combined with favorable matchups and high game over/unders.
These contextual factors should keep your team scoring all day. Take for example Lamar Miller. He is the undisputed red zone back, and was cheap on DraftKings in Week 2. The Dolphins were six-point favorites against the Jaguars, who allowed the third-most FPPG to opposing running backs last year. That spread theoretically should have allowed Miller to get a lot of fourth quarter carries as the Dolphins were expected to be up. That kind of expected stability is key to winning H2H games.
3) Target PPR monsters
Touchdowns are great, but you don’t need them to win against one person since DraftKings uses PPR scoring. Filling those WR spots with heavily-targeted, catch-heavy players are your key to maintaining that high floor. Players like Julian Edelman, Jarvis Landry, and Brandin Cooks will never get the upside that Julio Jones or Odell Beckham gives you, but an eight-catch, 80-yard day is just fine in this format. I almost always try to squeeze in Antonio Brown as well (even at high prices). You just don’t get much more stability from a guy who has almost 40 straight games of at least five catches and 50 yards.
4) Be strict with your percentage of play
As you get going in this game, you will hear a lot of debate on the whole “is fantasy sports gambling?” argument. Whatever side you take on that dispute is fine, but know this: The way you need to watch your money is almost identical for both gambling and fantasy sports. You MUST develop a nightly percentage system for yourself, which means playing no more than a certain percentage of your account balance each day. The standard number that most people seem to stick to (myself included) is 10-20% of your total balance. For example, if you have $100 in your account, and you decide to play 15% per night, your TOTAL bet (cash games and tournaments) should not exceed $15. This way, you will be able to monitor yourself each day monetarily while never overextending yourself or going on tilt.
5) Stick to the stats
It takes a lot of discipline, but there is no statistical evidence to back up “gut feelings”. When you are playing against one other opponent, you need to research every angle to give yourself the advantage. Remember, winning half the time is a loss for you thanks to the dreaded rake, so you want to have at least a 60% win rate. Statistical research tells you everything you need to know. If you find a solid play numbers-wise, jump on it. Marshawn Lynch had 75% of his team’s carries in Week 1 along with seven targets in the passing game. Plus, he averaged 133.5 YPG against the Packers last year while scoring three touchdowns. Don’t pass up on stats like that for a guy you think is “due” or is facing his old team, or something else that has no statistical basis.
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Jamie is the Lead Baseball Writer for Fantasy Team Advice. For questions and answers, find him on Twitter @jac3600.
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