It’s Week 5! You’re looking at the rankings and the articles, and you don’t know what to do. Well, I can’t give you that sweet insider data. But I can tell you the players that the top fantasy experts feel are going to do significantly better or worse than what most are predicting.
I took the rankings for this week by the 20 experts that have been the most accurate in their rankings this year. Then I compared those rankings to the default ECR, and I told my computer to tell me where the top experts deviate from the pack. It’s only been four weeks so far, but in those crazy four weeks, these 20 experts somehow got the closest to predicting the future. I assume they know something we don’t, so pay attention to what they say. You should use these numbers as an indicator that you should look closer at a player, the matchup and other factors, but don’t treat them as your gospel. A negative rank spread indicates that our top experts consider the player to be underrated, while a positive number signals an overrated player. The higher/lower the number, the more overrated/underrated the player is.
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Quarterbacks
Out of the default ECR’s top 20 quarterbacks, here’s three players with the most positive rank spreads, and three players with the most negative rank spreads.
Top Experts Like Them More
| Default ECR | Top Experts | ||||||||||
| Player Name | Team | Matchup | Best Rank | Worst Rank | Avg Rank | Std Dev | Best Rank | Worst Rank | Avg Rank | Std Dev | Rank Spread |
| Michael Vick | PIT | at SD | 11 | 28 | 19.08 | 2.95 | 12 | 21 | 17.10 | 2.14 | -1.98 |
| Alex Smith | KC | vs. CHI | 7 | 21 | 13.70 | 2.81 | 7 | 15 | 11.80 | 2.25 | -1.90 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | at CIN | 3 | 19 | 8.80 | 2.82 | 4 | 10 | 7.25 | 2.07 | -1.55 |
As a generally risk-averse fantasy player, I tend to think that there can be no expert when it comes to Vick, and I wouldn’t play him even though the experts think he’s highly underrated. Also they still only put him at an average rank of 17, so it’s probably not that tough of a decision. Then again, there is the “Law of Vick Relativity,” which states if Vick is on your bench, he’s going to get 30 points.
Alex Smith looks underrated, and he’s sitting right on the bubble from an average rank of 13.7 from the default ECR and 11.8 from the top experts. If you’re like me, and you’re without a solid QB after drafting Ben Roethlisberger and Tony Romo, Alex Smith might be worth considering this week.
Top Experts Like Them Less
| Default ECR | Top Experts | ||||||||||
| Player Name | Team | Matchup | Best Rank | Worst Rank | Avg Rank | Std Dev | Best Rank | Worst Rank | Avg Rank | Std Dev | Rank Spread |
| Jay Cutler | CHI | at KC | 4 | 28 | 14.53 | 3.26 | 12 | 23 | 16.70 | 2.69 | 2.17 |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | vs. SEA | 6 | 28 | 13.92 | 3.38 | 9 | 25 | 15.20 | 3.31 | 1.28 |
| Drew Brees | NO | at PHI | 3 | 17 | 7.33 | 2.64 | 3 | 17 | 8.50 | 3.04 | 1.17 |
Jay Cutler is looking fairly overrated. The actually relevant player here is Drew Brees, who top experts are rating a bit worse than the default ECR.
Running Backs
Out of the default ECR’s top 50 running backs, here’s five players with the most positive rank spreads and five players with the most negative rank spreads.
Top Experts Like Them More
| Default ECR | Top Experts | ||||||||||
| Player Name | Team | Matchup | Best Rank | Worst Rank | Avg Rank | Std Dev | Best Rank | Worst Rank | Avg Rank | Std Dev | Rank Spread |
| Ameer Abdullah | DET | vs. ARI | 16 | 38 | 27.05 | 4.05 | 16 | 29 | 24.65 | 3.26 | -2.40 |
| Andre Williams | NYG | vs. SF | 19 | 53 | 42.37 | 5.76 | 29 | 49 | 40.26 | 4.97 | -2.11 |
| Karlos Williams | BUF | at TEN | 6 | 64 | 20.94 | 12.17 | 7 | 36 | 19.08 | 8.43 | -1.85 |
| Theo Riddick | DET | vs. ARI | 35 | 67 | 48.51 | 5.37 | 39 | 57 | 46.76 | 4.82 | -1.75 |
| DeMarco Murray | PHI | vs. NO | 7 | 37 | 19.76 | 5.79 | 9 | 26 | 18.15 | 4.63 | -1.61 |
Ameer Abdullah and DeMarco Murray are all looking fairly underrated and could be worth a second look for your flex spot or a low-end RB2. Karlos Williams has been ruled out.
Top Experts Like Them Less
| Default ECR | Top Experts | ||||||||||
| Player Name | Team | Matchup | Best Rank | Worst Rank | Avg Rank | Std Dev | Best Rank | Worst Rank | Avg Rank | Std Dev | Rank Spread |
| Chris Thompson | WAS | at ATL | 15 | 59 | 44.39 | 7.51 | 34 | 56 | 46.21 | 5.57 | 1.83 |
| Thomas Rawls | SEA | at CIN | 16 | 68 | 42.34 | 7.98 | 22 | 68 | 44.53 | 9.10 | 2.19 |
| Marshawn Lynch | SEA | at CIN | 4 | 70 | 13.71 | 7.82 | 9 | 70 | 16.05 | 12.93 | 2.34 |
| Jeremy Hill | CIN | vs. SEA | 8 | 32 | 17.08 | 4.20 | 11 | 31 | 19.55 | 4.36 | 2.47 |
| David Johnson | ARI | at DET | 25 | 63 | 43.58 | 6.01 | 25 | 60 | 46.24 | 7.53 | 2.66 |
Marshawn Lynch has been ruled out.
Wide Receivers
Out of the default ECR’s top 50 wide receivers, here’s five players with the most positive rank spreads, and five players with the most negative rank spreads.
Top Experts Like Them More
| Player Name | Team | Matchup | Best Rank | Worst Rank | Avg Rank | Std Dev | Best Rank | Worst Rank | Avg Rank | Std Dev | Rank Range |
| Michael Floyd | ARI | at DET | 27 | 65 | 44.74 | 5.55 | 37 | 50 | 42.60 | 4.24 | -2.14 |
| Marques Colston | NO | at PHI | 38 | 70 | 49.84 | 4.73 | 40 | 53 | 48.05 | 3.53 | -1.79 |
| Doug Baldwin | SEA | at CIN | 28 | 57 | 39.21 | 4.28 | 31 | 43 | 37.70 | 2.51 | -1.51 |
| Michael Crabtree | OAK | vs. DEN | 22 | 53 | 36.02 | 5.43 | 26 | 44 | 34.60 | 4.62 | -1.42 |
| Travis Benjamin | CLE | at BAL | 17 | 50 | 34.26 | 6.61 | 19 | 38 | 32.85 | 4.54 | -1.41 |
Top Experts Like Them Less
| Default ECR | Top Experts | ||||||||||
| Player Name | Team | Matchup | Best Rank | Worst Rank | Avg Rank | Std Dev | Best Rank | Worst Rank | Avg Rank | Std Dev | Rank Spread |
| Steve Johnson | SD | vs. PIT | 24 | 87 | 41.56 | 9.00 | 38 | 57 | 47.00 | 4.93 | 5.44 |
| Martavis Bryant | PIT | at SD | 19 | 61 | 34.02 | 6.25 | 31 | 51 | 37.45 | 4.82 | 3.43 |
| Ty Montgomery | GB | vs. STL | 34 | 74 | 49.99 | 6.30 | 42 | 69 | 53.05 | 5.65 | 3.06 |
| Cole Beasley | DAL | vs. NE | 28 | 74 | 48.72 | 5.43 | 44 | 59 | 50.60 | 4.33 | 1.88 |
| Alshon Jeffery | CHI | at KC | 9 | 44 | 21.58 | 6.81 | 11 | 38 | 23.18 | 7.18 | 1.59 |
Martavis Bryant looks very overrated. Alshon Jeffery is a bit overrated as well, though his rank spread is less than half that of Bryant.
Tight Ends
Out of the default ECR’s top 20 tight ends, here’s three players with the most positive rank spreads, and three players with the most negative rank spreads.
Top Experts Like Them More
| Default ECR | Top Experts | ||||||||||
| Player Name | Team | Matchup | Best Rank | Worst Rank | Avg Rank | Std Dev | Best Rank | Worst Rank | Avg Rank | Std Dev | Rank Spread |
| Derek Carrier | WAS | at ATL | 10 | 33 | 18.99 | 4.30 | 12 | 23 | 17.29 | 3.08 | -1.70 |
| Larry Donnell | NYG | vs. SF | 8 | 23 | 15.77 | 2.71 | 9 | 18 | 14.21 | 2.71 | -1.56 |
| Jared Cook | STL | at GB | 10 | 23 | 15.22 | 2.75 | 12 | 19 | 14.10 | 1.87 | -1.12 |
The most relevant here is Jared Cook, who is a tad bit underrated.
Top Experts Like Them Less
| Default ECR | Top Experts | ||||||||||
| Player Name | Team | Matchup | Best Rank | Worst Rank | Avg Rank | Std Dev | Best Rank | Worst Rank | Avg Rank | Std Dev | Rank Range |
| Jordan Reed | WAS | at ATL | 4 | 33 | 18.55 | 5.94 | 18 | 27 | 21.20 | 3.20 | 2.65 |
| Heath Miller | PIT | at SD | 8 | 29 | 16.54 | 3.21 | 14 | 20 | 17.39 | 1.67 | 0.85 |
| Delanie Walker | TEN | vs. BUF | 3 | 28 | 8.91 | 2.59 | 6 | 28 | 9.70 | 4.37 | 0.79 |
Delanie Walker is a tad bit overrated, but moving from 8.91 to 9.7 means you’re still starting him.
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Thanks for reading! Hopefully this helps. May your starters stay healthy and your D/ST gets a pick six…unless you’re playing against me.
Matthew Rubin is a correspondent at FantasyPros. Follow Matthew on Twitter @mtthewrubiin.