5 Burning Questions for Week 11

To recap the Week 10 installment of “Burning Questions“:

NOTES: Well, I clearly dropped the ball on Tyler Eifert last week. After entering Week 10 with three drops on the season, he dropped three on successive targets during Monday night’s ugly loss to Houston. So, apologies to Rob Gronkowski, who is clearly still the alpha dog among TEs…Blake Bortles was the No. 13 fantasy QB in Week 10, coming up just a hair short of his QB1 projection…DeAngelo Williams disappointed with only six standard-league points against a generous Cleveland defense…In Oakland, neither Amari Cooper nor Michael Crabtree was a fantasy difference maker in Week 10, although Cooper did hold the edge in targets (his nine to Crabtree’s five) and fantasy points (his seven to Crabtree’s five)…Lamar Miller got an RB2 downgrade last week along with a sell-high tag, given his looming free agency and the emergence of rookie Jay Ajayi. Miller was bottled up for 2.7 YPC on 16 carries against Philadelphia, but he did finish as an RB1 thanks to a 6-50-1 receiving line. Ajayi has now produced 89 yards on 11 carries.

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On to Week 11.

1) What is Kamar Aiken’s upside?

Because Joe Flacco does, in fact, have to throw to somebody, Kamar Aiken’s name is one that has been on the rise in fantasy circles this week. Steve Smith Sr. was lost to a season-ending Achilles injury a few weeks ago, and Breshad Perriman was also recently placed on injured reserve, ruling out a potential late-season return for the Ravens’ first-round pick.

Aiken has filled the void of late, ranking as a WR3 in PPR formats over his last two games. He has seen 20 targets in that span, including a Smith-like 14 this past week. He has been on the field for 79 percent of Baltimore’s offensive snaps this season, but it’s that recent uptick in targets that makes Aiken an intriguing fantasy option for the remainder of the season, and he remains available in roughly half of leagues.

WEEK 11 AND BEYOND
Aiken is coming off a game that saw him grab 32 percent of Flacco’s target share, as he finished with 73 yards on seven catches. It was his sixth game this season with at least nine fantasy points (half-PPR). While he does have a handful of exploitable matchups still to come and thus is a decent flex option down the stretch, Aiken should be kept on the bench this week against the St. Louis Rams, who have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs.

2) Is Dwayne Harris a legitimate fantasy option?

The pickups that often bear the most fantasy fruit are the sneaky acquisitions made while a player is on a bye week. With this week’s news that Victor Cruz won’t be returning to the field this season, Giants’ slot receiver Dwayne Harris is a name to watch.

Harris won’t win you any PPR leagues, although he has seen more targets than teammate Rueben Randle over the past two games and has been targeted with virtually the same frequency since his debut in Week 4 (his 41 targets to Randle’s 36). With tight end Larry Donnell out since Week 8 due to a neck injury, Harris has developed an increasing comfort level with quarterback Eli Manning.

“Especially inside in the slot, it takes a little bit just kind of seeing things, because they happen a little bit quicker for you inside there,” Giants receivers coach Sean Ryan said. “The more you play, the more comfortable you get. I think that is very evident with him.”

According to Pro Football Focus, Harris has run 77 percent of his routes this season from the slot. He carries some additional appeal for his role on special teams, considering one of his five touchdowns this season came on a 100-yard kick return.

WEEK 11 AND BEYOND
With the Giants on bye this week, it’s certainly understandable that Harris is owned in only 15 percent of ESPN leagues. Due to Week 11 being the last week for byes and the Giants having a tough schedule, there may not be many opportunities to start Harris down the stretch, so there’s no major rush to grab him. But for those in deeper leagues (12+) with an extra bench spot, he is worth a speculative add.

3) Should we be encouraged or concerned by Davante Adams?

Getting 21 targets in a game from Aaron Rodgers, as Davante Adams received in Week 10, should generally lead to a big fantasy day. But that was not the case for the second-year pro, as he posted only 10 catches for 79 yards. According to NFL Network, no player since 1960 has had as many targets and produced so few receiving yards.

Of those targets, 12 were deemed “catchable” by Pro Football Focus, and he did have a pretty sick one-handed catch deep in Packers’ territory. Still, Adams mostly failed to take advantage of a Lions’ defense that was without Rashean Mathis. He was also targeted 11 times against Carolina a week earlier and produced 93 yards on seven catches, which is more in line with the efficiency to expect.

Adams was slowed by an ankle injury that cost him four games, so perhaps he is just rounding back into shape and game speed. As a rookie last season, he saw double-digit targets on two occasions and went over 100 yards both times. But over the last two weeks, Rodgers has only a 70.3 QB rating when throwing Adams’ way.

WEEK 11 AND BEYOND
Adams now finds himself with a golden opportunity in Green Bay, but does he have the talent to deliver? Packers’ general manager Ted Thompson may have overvalued Adams a bit by drafting him in the second round last year, but as long as the targets keep coming, there is fantasy value to be had. Don’t count on Rodgers’ chucking the ball 61 times this week against the Vikings, who have been tough to throw on. Still, Adams makes for a decent flex play in Week 11, and he’ll remain in the weekly WR2 discussion as long as he’s seeing double-digit targets.

4) Can Stevie Johnson pick up where Keenan Allen left off?

Prior to suffering a season-ending injury against Baltimore in Week 8, Keenan Allen was on pace to break Marvin Harrison’s single-season record for receptions. So, it would be disingenuous to suggest that Stevie Johnson can match his production now that he’s stepped into the primary receiver role in the Chargers’ offense.

But with fellow wideout Malcom Floyd also out of action since suffering a torn labrum in Week 9 and tight end Antonio Gates dealing with a hip injury, Philip Rivers has to throw to someone. Enter Johnson, who played all 72 of the Chargers’ offensive snaps in Week 9 and has been on the field for 83.6 percent of the snaps this season. The 29-year-old Johnson, a three-time 1,000-yard receiver in Buffalo, has adapted to a new role in his first year in San Diego.

He has run 89.2 percent of his routes from the slot, which trails only Philadelphia’s Jordan Matthews among 20 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus. Johnson has also earned Rivers’ trust with a 70.5-percent catch rate (Davante Adams’ is 56.3 percent, for comparison). As a result, Rivers has looked early and often to Johnson, who is averaging six targets per game but is coming off a season-high nine targets in his first game without Allen, and figures to continue seeing the ball come his way.

WEEK 11 AND BEYOND
Johnson is a sneaky play coming off a bye week and going up against the Chiefs, who rank 31^st in fantasy points to opposing WRs. An extreme value in daily leagues, he is a near surefire WR2 this week, yet remains benched in more than half of ESPN leagues.

5) Can T.Y. Hilton still thrive without Andrew Luck?

T.Y. Hilton was a top-10 fantasy receiver last season, as he and Andrew Luck struck up a weekly rapport that resulted in a 100.5 QB rating when targeting Hilton. Entering Week 11 this season, Indy’s speedster has fallen outside the top-20 WRs and is without Luck for the next few weeks. But is that such a bad thing?

For one reason or another, the chemistry just has not been there, as Hilton has produced only a 64.0 QB rating and 53-percent catch rate when thrown to this season. The offensive line has been a big problem, allowing 205 pressures, second-most behind Miami. In Weeks 4 and 5 when Hasselbeck played, Hilton’s QB rating when targeted was a slightly better 76.9, although he has not found the end zone in five games with the ageless veteran. Of note, Hilton was questionable with an ankle injury before the team’s Week 10 bye, although he did tough it out and post 82 yards on five catches against Denver.

WEEK 11 AND BEYOND
Luck was having a down year, but it’s hard to see Hasselbeck excelling behind the Colts’ offensive line. Then again, they do have a rather passing game-friendly schedule the rest of the way. At the end of the day, Hilton has one 100-yard receiving game and three TDs on the season. If I had the chance to fill a hole elsewhere by selling him on his former WR1 name value, I would do so before the trade deadline passes.

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Mike Castiglione is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, you can view his archive or follow him @RickDancin.