Week 9 brings us a lot of high upside options at every position. The Patriots by far have the highest projected team total (TT) of 33.0 points. The Saints, Chargers, Steelers and Broncos all have a projected TT of 26.0 or above. The Jaguars, Rams and Browns come in with the lowest projected TTs of 18.0 points or fewer.
Most of the players that are listed under “other notables” are players that made my model and were graded out high due to salary, matchup, projected value, floor/ceiling, projected touches/targets, game flow, Vegas totals/spreads and projected ownership.
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Quarterback
Jay Cutler – CHI at SD – $5,200
Smokin’ Jay Cutler isn’t in play for cash games but comes in as one of my favorite tournament options. His price is near quarterback minimum salary, and he gets to face the Chargers who are ranked 26th overall in fantasy points allowed vs. QBs this season. This game posts the second-highest game total (49.5) and the Chargers’ defense is allowing 26.1 points per game.
Cutler is getting an insane amount of pass attempts (162) over his last four games (40.5 per game) and that trend should continue Monday night. With that amount of passing volume, Cutler should easily be able to reach 3X value with a ceiling above 5X.
Other Notables
- Tom Brady – NE vs. WAS – $8,500
- Aaron Rodgers – GB at CAR – $7,400
- Matt Ryan – ATL at SF – $7,100
- Ben Roethlisberger – PIT vs. OAK – $6,600
- Derek Carr – OAK at PIT – $5,200
- Jameis Winston – TB vs. NYG – $5,200
- Kirk Cousins – WAS at NE – $5,100
Running Backs
LeSean McCoy – BUF vs. MIA – $5,500
LeSean McCoy has a juicy matchup vs. the Dolphins’ soft run defense (124.4 RuYdA/G). McCoy’s hamstring injury seems to be in the past and he should easily get 15-20 touches on the ground. McCoy also has eight targets over his last two games, giving him PPR upside.
The Bills are favorites at home (-3) with a projected TT of 23.5. Both are good indicators that the game should stay close, giving McCoy a solid floor/ceiling. McCoy will be the beneficiary of Rex Ryan’s “ground and pound” style of offense.
Lamar Miller – MIA at BUF – $5,000
Lamar Miller went from hero to zero after the game script got out of hand vs. the Patriots in Week 8. A lot of people will have a negative recency bias after he disappointed a lot of owners, but he still managed to score 14.4 FPTS. The Bills’ run defense is solid, which should scare a lot of owners off Miller this week, making me like him that much more.
According to Football Outsiders, the Bills are the most susceptible defense to running backs in the passing game. Miller has a steady role in the Dolphins’ passing attack and carries PPR upside.
Other Notables
- Devonta Freeman – ATL at SF – $8,000
- Adrian Peterson – MIN vs. STL – $7,300
- Todd Gurley – STL at MIN – $6,900
- Mark Ingram – NO vs. TEN – $6,500
- DeMarco Murray – PHI at DAL – $6,400
- Dion Lewis – NE vs. WAS – $6,400
- Chris Ivory – NYJ at JAX – $5,900
- DeAngelo Williams – PIT vs. OAK – $5,500
- Doug Martin – TB vs. NYG – $5,100
- Danny Woodhead – SD vs. CHI – $4,800
- Jonathan Stewart – CAR vs. GB – $4,300
- Jeremy Langford – CHI at SD – $4,000
- Chris Thompson – WAS at NE – $3,300
- C.J. Spiller – NO vs. TEN – $3,100
Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown – PIT vs. OAK – $8,100
This might be the last week you will be able to own Antonio Brown for less than $9,000. Brown will be a popular play who I project to be owned in around 25% of DraftKings Millionaire Maker teams, but that isn’t high enough for me to consider fading him at his current salary.
The Raiders’ pass defense is allowing 302.1 PaYdA/G and will have their hands full without the personnel to stop him. After considering projected ownership and salary, Brown grades out as my second-highest wide receiver option this week.
Randall Cobb – GB at CAR – $6,800
Randall Cobb has been a disappointment lately, making his salary drop down to $6,800. The majority of the public will see his matchup vs. the Panthers and immediately think he will be shadowed by shutdown cornerback Josh Norman. Cobb runs most of his routes in the slot, and Norman’s role is on the outside which means Bene Benwikere will get the pleasure of trying to slow down Cobb. With Mike Evans and Amari Cooper being $100 less in salary, I am confident that Cobb will be low owned, making him one of my favorite tournament plays at the wide receiver position.
Alshon Jeffery – CHI at SD – $6,700
Alshon Jeffery makes for the ultimate correlation play if you’re going to be using Jay Cutler. He is averaging over 12 targets per game, leading to an average of 25.0 FPTS. Jeffery will probably be a popular play, but there is a lot of buzz around running back Jeremy Langford this week. Jeffery’s salary of $6,700 grades him out as my No. 1 option in all formats.
Other Notables
- Julio Jones – ATL at SF – $9,100
- Odell Beckham Jr. – NYG at TB – $8,800
- Julian Edelman – NE vs. WAS – $8,200
- Brandon Marshall – NYJ vs. JAX – $7,600
- Demaryius Thomas – DEN at IND – $7,500
- Emmanuel Sanders – DEN at IND – $7,300
- Mike Evans – TB vs. NYG – $6,800
- Amari Cooper – OAK at PIT – $6,700
- Brandin Cooks – NO vs. TEN – $5,800
- Martavis Bryant – PIT vs. OAK – $5,500
- Eric Decker – NYJ vs. JAX – $5,300
- Allen Hurns – JAX at NYJ – $5,300
- Stefon Diggs – MIN vs. STL – $5,300
- Pierre Garcon – WAS at NE – $5,000
- Michael Crabtree – OAK at PIT – $4,900
- Willie Snead – NO vs. TEN – $4,800
- Malcom Floyd – SD vs. CHI – $3,900
- Robert Woods – BUF vs. MIA – $3,500
- Stevie Johnson – SD vs. CHI – $3,200
- Brandon LaFell – NE vs. WAS – $3,200
Tight End
Martellus Bennett – CHI at SD – $4,900
I’m pretty high on the Bears’ offense this week, and it may come as a surprise with Forte not playing. I project the Bears’ offense to put the ball in the air around 40 times in this game. Bennett comes in as Cutler’s second favorite target, and currently leads the team in targets with 58.
Bennett will be low owned and makes for an exceptional tournament play. If you’re playing in cash games, I highly recommend using Rob Gronkowski or Heath Miller.
Other Notables
- Rob Gronkowski – NE vs. WAS – $8,000
- Antonio Gates – SD vs. CHI – $4,700
- Jordan Reed – WAS at NE – $4,500
- Charles Clay – BUF vs. MIA – $4,200
- Benjamin Watson – NO vs. TEN – $4,000
- Jacob Tamme – ATL at SF – $3,000
- Austin Sefarian-Jenkins – TB vs. NYG – $2,800
Flex
Darren McFadden – DAL vs. PHI – $4,300
Darren McFadden continues to impress and DraftKings hasn’t made a significant increase in his salary yet. The Cowboys’ offensive game plan is to keep the ball on the ground behind their stout offensive line to shorten the game. McFadden’s workload has been enormous over the last two games with 49 rushing attempts along with 10 targets.
His floor is near 3-4X value with his ceiling being much higher than that. I’m not sure how popular of a play he will be, but he makes for a fine play in any format for me.
Defense/Special Teams
Jets – NYJ vs. JAX – $3,100
Negative recency bias will have a lot of people off one of the top defenses in the New York Jets after allowing 34 points against the Oakland Raiders in Week 8. I’m projecting the Denver Broncos to be the highest owned defense this week, making them a solid play in cash games but in tournaments I’m opting to pivot. The Jaguars are on the road being a +8 underdog and come in with one of the lowest projected TT (18.8).
Other Notables
- Falcons – ATL at SF – $3,400
- Vikings – MIN vs. STL – $3,100
- Broncos – DEN at IND – $3,000
- Bills – BUF vs. MIA – $2,900
- Eagles – PHI at DAL – $2,700
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Matthew Davis is a correspondent for FantasyPros. You can find more from Matthew by viewing his archive or following him @_mattywood_.