When The New Orleans Saints traded Jimmy Graham to the Seattle Seahawks, a huge void was left to be filled. Josh Hill was the preseason darling to be the featured tight end. But heading into Week 9 of the NFL season, it’s now pretty clear that 34-year-old Benjamin Watson is THE Saints’ tight end to own in fantasy football.
All preseason long reports came out about how well Watson was playing in camp. Even Drew Brees was adamant that Watson was the starting tight end. Watson was routinely catching TDs in camp against the Saints defenders. But once the season started, it became very apparent that the Saints defense had issues covering ANY tight end. Watson’s surprising stellar play in camp suddenly didn’t seem as impressive.
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In his first four games, Watson totaled just 12 catches for 103 yards and zero touchdowns and was not on anyone’s waiver wire radar. Since then, he’s caught 26 passes for 369 yards and three touchdowns. His fantasy production during that time frame was second only to another waiver wire gem at tight end, Gary Barnidge. And the guy Watson replaced, Jimmy Graham? Watson has more fantasy points than the much higher fantasy football draft choice Graham.
To take Watson’s recent production a step further, it coincides with the Saints’ offensive boost and winning streak. It suggests that he is one of the reasons (along with a healthy Drew Brees) the Saints have finally started to play better and win games. If he can maintain his current production, Watson would have by far his best season with the potential to have close to 1,000 yards and around seven TDs. But the question is, can he keep up this pace?
Looking at the upcoming schedule, the Saints play the Titans, Redskins and Texans before a tough matchup with the Panthers. Then they end the season with the Buccaneers, Lions and Jaguars. All teams that are below average against the pass. The schedule is very favorable and should benefit Watson’s chances to continue his solid play.
One more thing to consider; the Saints’ defense is not very good and the offense and Drew Brees will have to continue throwing the ball to keep pace with other teams. Watson also has the luxury of having a tight end-friendly quarterback and an innovative play caller (Sean Payton) who puts players in position to succeed. We see the struggles Graham is having in Seattle and how he is being underutilized while Graham thrived in a Brees/Payton offense.
The downside to adding Watson to your roster is also the same reason for adding him to your roster; Drew Brees and the Saints offense. Brees tends to spread the ball around and his wide receivers, Brandin Cooks, Marques Colston and Willie Snead, are starting to play better. This should cut into the amount of targets Watson will get. Watson is also not a big red zone target, and the Saints have run the ball more this season in the red zone then they have in previous years.
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Going forward, Watson should remain a big part of the Saints’ offense, but the targets will not be there for him to sustain his current pace. He has moved into the conversation of TE1 and potentially top 12 TE overall, but he is not an every-week starter. Treat Watson as a matchup-dependent tight end with some upside that should be owned in all 12-team leagues.
Hilton Guidry is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Hilton, check out his archive and follow him @fantasygumbo.