What can we expect from LeGarrette Blount in the long-term?
Eric Moody discusses the numbers behind Week 9.
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Fantasy football is a game of numbers. The goal is to outscore your opponent every week.
The game film tells one story, but innovative statistics and analytics tell another. We just wrapped up Week 9 of the NFL season. We were exhilarated with breathtaking performances and unfortunate injuries to key offensive players such as Ben Roethlisberger, Dion Lewis, LeSean McCoy and Eddie Lacy.
The No. 1 fantasy wide receiver Antonio Brown scored more points in PPR formats than the No. 1 fantasy quarterback Cam Newton. Karlos Williams was the third-best fantasy running back but only had nine touches.
Sammy Watkins finished as the second best fantasy wide receiver and caught all of his targets. Rob Gronkowski did not finish as a top-12 fantasy tight end.
The goal of this weekly column is to share with you stats to provide you clarity and to help you understand how productive certain players can be for your fantasy football team. With that in mind, it’s time to dive into Week 9.
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5.57: Antonio Brown’s receiving yards per route run
He caught 17 of 23 targets for 284 yards and had two rushing attempts for 22 yards against the Raiders. Brown had the seventh-most receiving yards of any wide receiver in a single regular season game from 1960 to 2015 according to Pro Football Reference. He ran routes on 56 offensive snaps, which ranked as the fourth-most from any wide receiver in Week 9.
No other wide receiver with 10 or more targets came close to matching Brown’s 5.57 receiving yards per route run. Roethlisberger is expected a miss a few weeks due to a left foot injury.
Brown has elite route running skills, change of direction ability and hands to transcend quarterback play. He will be a top-three fantasy wide receiver in Week 10 as the Steelers face off against the Browns.
29: The number of rushing attempts for LeGarrette Blount
He carried the football 29 times and scored one touchdown against the Redskins. Blount also averaged 2.83 yards after contact per attempt. This was the highest average of any running back with 20 or more carries in Week 9.
Lewis is out for the season with a torn ACL. Blount will benefit most from absence and not James White or Brandon Bolden. The Patriots’ offense leads the NFL in passing touchdowns and rank sixth in rushing touchdowns.
The offense scores points on 54.3 percent of their drives. The schedule sets up very nicely for Blount with the New York Giants (Week 10), Buffalo Bills (Week 11), Philadelphia Eagles (Week 13), Houston Texans (Week 14) and Tennessee Titans (Week 15) left on the schedule. He currently receives 53.8 percent of the rushing attempts in the red zone.
I anticipate that percentage to increase moving forward. Blount is a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside for the rest of the season.
0.79: Marcus Mariota’s fantasy points per drop back
He completed 28 of 39 passes for 371 yards and four touchdowns against the Saints. Mariota’s return did allow the Titans’ offense to become fantasy relevant once again. He excelled on short to intermediate throws with a Pro Football Focus aDOT of 7.8 yards.
It is a great figure to understand how far a quarterback’s throws travel in the air. Mariota put his receivers in a position to generate yards after the catch. He rewarded fantasy owners by taking advantage a great matchup.
The Saints’ defense has given up 337.3 passing yards per game and 125 points over the last four games. The defense continues to be one for savvy fantasy owners to exploit. Mariota continues to be a solid QB2 with QB1 upside in the right matchup.
0.85: Tyler Eifert’s fantasy points per opportunity
He caught five of six targets for 53 yards and three touchdowns against the Browns. Eifert has the highest fantasy points per opportunity of any tight end in Week 9 with five or more targets. The only tight ends with more fantasy points in standard scoring leagues are Ben Watson and Gary Barnidge. The Bengals have a favorable schedule moving forward and play against the Texans on Monday Night Football to wrap up Week 10. Eifert continues to be a weekly TE1.
5: The number of targets of 20 yards or more for Michael Crabtree
He caught seven of 12 targets for 108 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers. Crabtree’s rebirth continues in a viable Raiders’ offense that ranks just outside of the top 10 in total offense and averages six yards per offensive play.
He looks fully healthy from his Achilles injury. Crabtree leads the Raiders in targets (77) and continues to be a very good WR3 with WR2 upside for fantasy owners.
53.4: The percentage of DeAngelo Williams’ yardage gained on rushing attempts of 15 yards or more
He had a Pro Football Focus Breakaway Percentage or 53.4 percent. The 32-year-old Williams has apparently found a fountain of youth. He finished the first two weeks of the season as the No. 1 fantasy running back as Le’Veon Bell served his suspension.
Williams repeated that feat in Week 9 in his first game as the starter following Bell’s season-ending knee injury. He has totaled 75 touches, 455 yards and five touchdowns in three games this season as the starting running back. Williams is a weekly RB1 and the type of different maker that will help owners win fantasy leagues this season.
139.8: Andy Dalton’s quarterback rating
Many fantasy owners have been reluctant to trust him this season based on his play in past seasons. Dalton had the highest quarterback rating in Week 9. He is currently a top-five fantasy quarterback and has the potential down the stretch to finish as a very good QB1. The Bengals still have games against the Texans (Week 10), Browns (Week 13), Steelers (Week 14) and 49ers (Week 15).
3.90: DeMarco Murray’s receiving yards per route run
He had 18 carries for 83 yards and a touchdown and caught 6 of 7 targets for 78 yards against the Cowboys. Murray played nearly 58 percent of the offensive snaps. Ryan Mathews played 29 percent of the offensive snaps and was limited to one target as a receiver out of the backfield.
The bye week came at a perfect time for the Eagles. Murray continues to be an RB1 going forward and displayed how he can produce when given an adequate workload.
138.5: Sam Bradford’s quarterback rating when targeting Jordan Matthews
He caught nine of 12 targets for 133 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys. Matthews came through for owners who started him in Week 8, but can he be trusted moving forward on your fantasy team? The Philadelphia Daily News’ Les Bowen reported that he suffered a ligament injury in his hand weeks ago.
Matthews’ best fantasy games were Week 1 and Week 9 against the Cowboys. If you take those two games away, he is just outside of the top-50 fantasy wide receivers. This is a sell-high opportunity I encourage owners of Matthews to take advantage of.
38.46: Mike Evans‘ Drop Rate
He caught eight of 19 targets for 152 yards against the Giants with 45 percent of his receiving yardage coming on one play. Evans had a Pro Football Focus drop rate of 38.46 that led all wide receivers with 10 or more targets. The high number of targets is great, but not sustainable with the pending return of tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins.
Evans has to display better focus when catching passes moving forward. He is better viewed as an every-week WR2 with WR1 upside on any given week. Evans will have an opportunity to go boom against the Cowboys in Week 10.
Quick Hits from Week 9
- Cole Beasley had 11 targets against the Eagles.
- Lamar Miller and DeMarco Murray finished as the second- and third-best fantasy running backs and showed owners what is possible when they receive 18 or more touches a game.
- Two of Devin Funchess’ four targets were 20 yards or more. He is worth taking a flier on if available in deeper leagues. The Panthers have a soft schedule for the rest of the season.
- Steve Johnson continues to run a high percentage (90.9) of his routes lined up as a slot receiver. The irony is that he ran the same percentage as Randall Cobb. Johnson should receive eight or more targets a week and will be a solid WR3 for the rest of the season.
- Shaun Draughn averaged 3.56 yards after contact per attempt.
- Antonio Andrews is the first Titans’ running back to receive 19 carries this season. He also has the second highest number of rushing attempts with 16.
- Devonta Freeman was targeted nine times and produced 2.23 receiving yards per route run with one receiving touchdown.
- Jeremy Hill had 1.73 yards after contact per attempt.
