There has been much debate surrounding Julio Jones this week. The matchup between him and the top corner in the game, Josh Norman, has set the internet on fire. Their first of two games comes at such a crucial point in the fantasy football season. This is the first week of the fantasy football playoffs. Jones’ owners who have earned a bye week should consider themselves lucky. This week is the dress rehearsal for the real performance in Week 16 where the Falcons and Panthers will face each other once again during the fantasy football Super Bowl. In two of my three season-long leagues where I own Jones I have the fortune of witnessing his dress rehearsal against Norman and the Panthers this week. In my one league where I own him and am looking to advance in the playoffs, I am not benching Jones. I have the depth to consider it if I want to, but I do not want to. He is the top receiver in fantasy football and he is starting for my team this week.
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Make no mistake about it. The hype surrounding Josh Norman is real. The Panthers’ defense in general is a stout, well-oiled machine. Some receivers have been shut down against Carolina and others have been fine.
There are a few things to note with Norman’s production to this point, and we can analyze them in a weekly order. In Week 1 Allen Robinson was shut down but WR3 Rashad Greene shined. DeAndre Hopkins, the top wideout in Houston, had a quiet outing in Week 2. The following week Brandin Cooks just missed out on a big day when he was held out of the end zone. In Week 4, the Panthers were fine with allowing Vincent Jackson to scorch them and kept Mike Evans in check.
Following their bye week, the Panthers stifled the Seahawks receiving corps in Week 6. Miles Austin had the biggest day for the Eagles in Week 7 while Jordan Matthews did next to nothing. Andre Johnson led the Colts receivers in Week 8 and T.Y. Hilton registered one catch. Randall Cobb performed like a WR1 in Week 9 by going for almost 100 yards and scoring. It is worth noting that Davante Adams also had seven receptions for 93 yards. The Titans were without Kendall Wright in Week 10. Justin Hunter and Harry Douglas combined for seven receptions for 74 yards. DeSean Jackson’s 87 yards and score made him the top receiver on his team in Week 11. In what was a total lockdown in Week 12, Dez Bryant was held to two catches while Cole Beasley saw the most action in the receiving game. Finally, Brandin Cooks topped himself last week in his second game against the Panthers and took six receptions for 104 yards and a touchdown.
This is what receivers have done against the Panthers this season. Some of the top receivers have been shut down, others were average, and a few put up WR1 numbers. We can conclude that, as far as WR1 goes, Randall Cobb, DeSean Jackson and Brandin Cooks were fine against Carolina. I cannot say for sure if Norman lined up across from or shadowed these receivers because that information has become impossible for me to track down with premium stats now being off limits at Pro Football Focus, but we still have data as to what receivers have done against the Panthers.
This all brings us to what is most important and that is Julio Jones. The Panthers simply have not faced a receiver quite at his level yet. I just want to reiterate that he is currently the top scoring receiver in fantasy football. In his past two games he may not have been giving you the points that you look for in a receiver of his caliber, but prior to that he had five straight games where he scored a minimum of 23 fantasy points.
In spite of Matt Ryan’s recent struggles he is still producing. Since Atlanta’s Week 10 bye he is averaging over 13 targets per game. I do not expect that volume to take a drastic hit because he will be shadowed by the top corner in football. Jones is also not exclusively an outside receiver. The Falcons will move him around and create opportunities for him to get open.
Now is not the time to get cute with your lineup. In my opinion it will come down to a touchdown. He will need to score to have a big day. He is third in the league in red zone targets with 20. I am not worried about his scoring upside. Jones got you this far. Obviously there is a risk that he is shut down as there is with any receiver going up against this defensive collective. However, you just do not sit Jones. Period. You did not draft him where you did for him to ride your bench in the first round of the fantasy playoffs. I am not risking him blowing up on my bench this weekend, and I do not believe you should either.
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Whatever you decide, good luck this weekend!
Jen Ryan is a correspondent at FantasyPros, featured writer at Gridiron Experts and senior writer at Football Diehards. Click here for her archive and feel free to reach her and talk all things fantasy @FFdeJENerate.