I examine the Seattle running back situation in the wake of Thomas Rawls’ season-ending injury, and what the fantasy implications are for the rest of 2015.
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For most teams, the loss of a borderline Hall of Fame-caliber running back would be cause for concern, if not outright panic. Marshawn Lynch opened the 2015 season with 73 yards on the ground against the (then formidable) St. Louis Rams defense, but followed that up with just 65 yards in his next two games. Lynch missed the next two outings but returned to rush for a disappointing 289 yards in his next four, scoring three touchdowns. He was not featured much in the passing game, with just 80 yards through the air. After a 42-yard, one-touchdown effort against the Cardinals (with eight more receiving yards), Lynch underwent sports hernia surgery, with estimates on his absence ranging from leaving the hospital and suiting up that day (slight exaggeration) to missing the rest of the season. But did the Seahawks miss a beat, let alone panic? Absolutely not. They just rolled with Thomas Rawls.
The UDFA had stood in for Lynch earlier in the season, taking 104 rushing yards off the Bears in Week 3 and a further 169 against a stout Bengals’ defense in Week 5. Having fended off the challenge to his role from Christine Michael and Robert Turbin, Rawls was now the guy to spell Lynch whenever a change was needed. When Lynch was sidelined after the Cardinals’ game, Rawls once again answered the bell. He rushed for 209 yards (one touchdown) against the hapless 49ers, adding 46 yards in the passing game and a further score. He then chipped in 81 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers before running the Vikings ragged to the tune of 101 yards (yet another touchdown) and 22 receiving yards. The Seahawks had found a stud, and Lynch owners received an answer to their prayers.
Prayers, it would seem, have an expiry date (like milk), and there was a sour ending to this fairy tale. Against the Ravens, after racking up 44 yards on just six carries, a Ravens’ defender fell onto Rawls’ ankle (blamelessly, I must add) and fractured it, ending his season.
With Lynch still a way off from making a return, how does the loss of Rawls impact the fantasy appeal of the Seahawks’ ground game? Is there another rose to be plucked from this fertile environment?
DuJuan Harris picked up the slack against the Ravens once Rawls went down, but he was surprisingly released on Tuesday. The Seahawks have signed (again) former Eagles running back Bryce Brown, and it appears that the team is willing to let him carry the load, at least for Week 15. Brown averages 4.4 yards per carry in his NFL career and showed flashes during his rookie season in Philadelphia of being a potential star. He has had ball security issues, fumbling on 2.2% of his total carries, but if allowed a high volume of rushes he could certainly be a viable plug-and-play replacement for Rawls. Christine Michael has returned to the scene, re-signing with Seattle, but at this point it appears Brown will get the first crack at replacing Rawls.
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The Seahawks’ Week 15 opponents, the Browns, have been unable to slow down most rushing attacks this season and they’re allowing over 20 fantasy points per game to running backs. Should you reach your league championship game (which should be played on Week 16. Leagues with a Week 17 title game? You’re better than that.), Brown will face a once stout run defense in St. Louis, but they have tailed off, and are themselves in the top 10 of points allowed to tailbacks this year. If Brown can be trusted to protect the ball, there is every sign that he’ll be given the chance to fill the gap in the Seahawks’ offense, and that should make him a nice fit for the potential hole on your roster.
Neil Dutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Neil, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @ndutton13.