The Buccaneers decided to move on from Lovie Smith after two seasons
Every year, around the same time, the NFL regular season comes to an end. Twelve teams advance to the playoffs while the remaining 20 head into the offseason with the hopes of building a winning franchise. Everyone has their respective roles on the team, from the general manager down to the unknown player on the practice squad, and not one of their jobs is safe. Today we will turn our focus toward the head coach.
The NFL head coach is heavily scrutinized for their team’s performance year-round and often is the scapegoat for a bad season. Throughout the season, we hear about coaches on the hot seat. Some, like Ken Whisenhunt, Joe Philbin, and Chip Kelly, do not make it until Week 17. For others who do, they dread Black Monday. Black Monday is the day after Week 17 comes to an end, and for some of those on the hot seat, the day their current tenure would come to an end as a head coach of an NFL team. Those who remain will try to take from the positives and build for the season to come.
Just like in reality, the head coach plays his part in fantasy football. Maybe not directly getting you points in your matchup, but indirectly by his decision making on the sidelines and the system he has in place to get the most out of his players on game day. So far, there have been several coaching changes in the NFL, some more shocking than the others. Let’s take a look at who’s going and who’s staying with their current teams around the league and its fantasy fallout.
Who’s Out?
Jim Tomsula – 49ers
Tomsula took over a 49ers team that made a Super Bowl appearance as recently as the 2012 season. He entered a situation replacing a well-known Jim Harbaugh. San Francisco did not fare any better with Tomsula and parted ways with him hours after their season finale against St. Louis. Colin Kaepernick, who was once highly regarded as a fantasy stud, was benched for Blaine Gabbert, who had success under Tomsula. Carlos Hyde showed a glimpse of good things to come until a foot injury ended his season early to open the door for Shawn Draughn, and a veteran receiving corps struggled in an offense that couldn’t find their way in 2015. The 49ers have the pieces in place to become a top-15 offense in 2015 with the right coach on the sidelines. If they bring in an offensive mind, you could see good value from players coming off a bad year.
Mike Pettine – Browns
Another Sunday night casualty came as no surprise in Cleveland. Pettine was fired by the Browns after two losing seasons. The defensive coach could not put together an offense, especially with what he had to work with. After Josh McCown’s surprising start, things looked optimistic in Cleveland. However, injuries came into play, and all optimism went out the window. The Browns started Johnny Manziel and Austin Davis behind center throughout the second half of 2015, and inconsistency at the quarterback position doomed the rest of the offense, as it normally does in today’s NFL. The running game was not much better. Rookie Duke Johnson overtook Isiah Crowell for Cleveland’s top back, only to be outplayed by Crowell in the last quarter of the season. If given the chance, Crowell could become a solid back to draft in the late rounds next season. Travis Benjamin and Gary Barnidge emerged as playmakers at their positions, but with so many unanswered questions at quarterback, their value is impacted. Cleveland needs to get out of the slump they’ve been in arguably since Bernie Kosar was their signal caller in the 80s. It starts with bringing in an experienced head coach and general manager tandem to rebuild a failing franchise.
Tom Coughlin – Giants
After his third consecutive losing season, Coughlin resigned from his position as head coach of the New York Giants. The two-time Super Bowl winner relieved himself of his duties with the team after a meeting with the heads of the organization on Monday. New York finished eighth in total offense under Coughlin and potential replacement, offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo. Eli Manning had success under McAdoo in 2015, finishing with career highs in completions, attempts, and touchdowns. The Giants running game came together at the end of the year with Rashad Jennings taking over a crowded running back position. Larry Donnell and Will Tye played well in McAdoo’s system, and whoever emerges as the No. 1 TE option heading into 2016 could be a sleeper late in the fantasy draft. Second-year standout Odell Beckham headlined a banged up receiving corps in New York and will go into next season as a top player at his position. Whoever the Giants bring on as their next head coach will inherit a dangerous offense with weapons across the board.
Lovie Smith – Buccaneers
The most surprising change came out of Tampa Bay. Smith was fired on Wednesday after two losing seasons with the organization. Smith got the most out of his young offense led by Jameis Winston that finished in the top 10 in 2015. The rookie quarterback matured as he got more experienced week by week and seemed to find a strong connection with Mike Evans on the outside. Doug Martin blossomed into a premier back, finishing second only to Adrian Peterson as the league’s rushing leader. Tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins couldn’t stay on the field for his second straight season but has the measurables and ability to break out if he stays healthy. The Buccaneers aren’t far from contending, and heading into 2016 they could produce some of the top players in fantasy football.
Who’s Staying Put?
Jason Garrett – Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys came into 2015 with aspirations of a Super Bowl, but injuries to Tony Romo and Dez Bryant put a damper on that. Any coach of the Cowboys is known to be on the hot seat in one of the most heavily-scrutinized franchise’s in sports if the result isn’t a championship, and Garrett is no exception. Up to this point, Garrett’s job is said to be safe according to team owner Jerry Jones, and their focus is on the draft. Anything could change at any time in Dallas, but if Garrett remains, he will lead a team in 2016 whose specialists played well together for years and should go back to form barring any injuries or setbacks. Heading into next year’s fantasy season, players like Romo and Bryant will once again be highly coveted. Darren McFadden had one of the best seasons of his career after overtaking Joseph Randle as the team’s starting running back. With a passing game to help him out, he could be even more dangerous. Veteran Jason Witten will return to form with Romo back under center and regain his fantasy status as a mid-range TE1. Garrett has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and the weapons in place to succeed in Dallas. With a good offseason, they should be back on top in 2016.
Sean Payton – Saints
Rumors of a possible coaching change in New Orleans were silenced by Payton himself on Wednesday. The Super Bowl champion coach of the Saints is coming off consecutive losing seasons and will look to once again dominate the NFC South. Returning with Payton is Drew Brees. The quarterback-coach combination has been together in New Orleans since 2006. Surrounding Brees is Brandin Cooks, who came on in the second half of the season, and Willie Snead, who is developing into a reliable No. 2 receiver. Running back Mark Ingram will likely return to the Saints in 2016. Ingram was placed on IR due to a shoulder injury but had six touchdowns and nearly 800 yards rushing prior. Ingram fits well in Payton’s system and should be ranked in the bottom half of the top 10 running backs this year in fantasy. The Saints traded away Jimmy Graham in the offseason to the Seahawks leaving Brees without one of his top targets. Benjamin Watson filled in and stood out, finishing No. 7 among tight ends, 12 spots ahead of Graham. Heading into next year, Payton needs to build his offensive line to help give an older Brees more time in the pocket and to open up holes for Ingram. Payton is one of the best offensive minds in the game and fits well in the organization. Payton may be far from winning another Super Bowl, but he will put a team full of fantasy production on the field again in 2016.
Chuck Pagano – Colts
There were many ups and downs in 2015 for the Indianapolis Colts and Chuck Pagano. On Monday, coming at the surprise of many, Pagano’s contract was extended until 2019. The Colts entered the season as a favorite to win the Super Bowl. They added running back Frank Gore and wide receiver Andre Johnson to Andrew Luck’s arsenal, which was already well stocked. Luck battled injuries in a season to forget and only played in seven games. Due to Luck’s absence, Andre Johnson was invisible and T.Y. Hilton did not live up to expectations. Gore finished ninth in rushing and was one of the bright spots in the offense. Although other changes will be made in the organization, Pagano’s job being secured will only benefit the Colts heading into next season. That bodes well for Luck and his compliment of offensive firepower. With a healthy Luck, the rest of the team will avail and once again make the Colts a fantasy juggernaut.
Mike McCoy – Chargers
McCoy was retained as the San Diego Chargers head coach this week. McCoy is going into his fourth year with the team, losing in his only playoff appearance in 2013. The Chargers were another team plagued with injuries this season. Philip Rivers was on fire until Keenan Allen was lost for the year in Week 8. Antonio Gates was Rivers’ most reliable target once again with Dontrelle Inman showcasing his ability. The Chargers had high hopes for rookie running back Melvin Gordon, but he was outplayed by Danny Woodhead as the team’s most reliable fantasy back. In 2016, the Chargers get back their injured stars and need to upgrade their line to protect an aging Rivers.
There will be more coaching changes to follow this upcoming offseason. Some teams will wait until after the Super Bowl to make their final decisions on who they will hire to replace those who moved on. In 2016, there will be a new group of coaches on the hot seat, and the coaching carousel will go around once again.
Anthony Cervino is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Anthony, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @therealnflguru.
