Some team is going to take a shot on Paxton Lynch in the first round
Vincent Frank takes a look at NFL Draft Quarterbacks, ranking them by tier.
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In the first of a four-part series leading up to the draft, we go ahead and rank the top-11 quarterback prospects by tier.
The top tier includes signal callers with franchise-type potential. Meanwhile, the bottom tier consists of two quarterbacks that will be nothing more than clipboard holders at the next level.
The idea here is to give readers an understanding of the ceiling and floor that each of these quarterback prospects provide. Next on the list, later this week will be running backs.
Tier One
Some will conclude that the 2016 NFL draft class is weak at quarterback. I don’t personally see it that way. This tier of quarterbacks consists of three potential franchise-type guys, all of whom should end up being selected in the first round.
Jared Goff – California
The only thing likely holding Goff back from being considered the consensus top quarterback in the draft is the type of offense he succeeded in at CAL. The spread-em out, air-raid scheme doesn’t necessarily translate to the next level. Goff was rarely seen under center in college, something that will catch the attention of scouts.
Outside of this, pretty much everything in Goff’s game translates to the next level. He boasts an incredibly strong arm, can make every thrown on the field with zip, and is about as accurate of a deep-ball passer we have seen in a prospect since Andrew Luck entered the NFL in 2012.
At 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, Goff will likely need to add some weight in order to handle the rigors of the NFL. Skinny doesn’t necessarily work at the professional level.
Carson Wentz – North Dakota State
At 6-foot-5 and 237 pounds, Wentz is your prototypical quarterback prospect. With above-average arm strength and solid velocity, there aren’t going to be any real issues regarding this small-school prospect’s ability to make throws at the next level.
Outside of playing against less-than-stellar competition in college, the biggest issues here are field vision and decision making. Too often, Wentz finds himself locked on to his primary read. This will lead to major mistakes at the next level. It’s something he’s going to have to improve on in order to make a positive impact in the NFL.
With all that said, Wentz has the arm strength, accuracy and all-around skill-set to be a franchise quarterback at the next level. He’s likely going to end up in the top-10 when all is said and done.
Paxton Lynch – Memphis
The hype surrounding Lynch fell off late in the 2015 season and hasn’t quite picked up since. He’s still a likely first-round pick but might be a bit below both Goff and Wentz in the pecking order.
The one major negative that stood out on tape was an inability to consistently get past his initial read. We don’t need to be geniuses to realize how that translates to the NFL.
Though, the positives far outweigh the negatives here. While Lynch does tend to struggle with ball placement and accuracy when on the move, he does have the necessary arm strength to make every throw at a high level, continually displaying an ability to fit the ball into tight windows.
At 6-foot-7 and 244 pounds, Lynch is a whale of quarterback in terms of his frame. He’s also among the most-athletic potential starters in the draft, which is another big key for scouts.
The expectation here has to be that Lynch will find himself off the board within the top-20 picks with both the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams being likely landing spots.
Tier Two
This tier includes three quarterbacks with starter potential at the next level. They are Day Two guys that must sit for at least two years before even being considered anywhere near starter-caliber signal callers.
They range from a Michigan State quarterback that has seen his value drop-off recently, to a one-year starter at Oregon that has this one scribe thinking of Russell Wilson.
Connor Cook – Michigan State
Cook followed up an interesting decision to skip the Senior Bowl with a horrendous performance at the NFL Scouting Combine in February. This has pretty much dropped him out of the conversation in the first round.
Instead, Cook’s absolute ceiling right now has to be in the top of the second round where the San Francisco 49ers are said to be high on him.
The issues were vast at the combine in Indianapolis. Cook struggled with accuracy, had major issues with mechanics and proved himself to be one of the worst quarterbacks in terms of position-specific drills. This will lead to him falling down the draft board come April.
Cardale Jones – Ohio State
An unfortunate injury running the 40 at the combine put Jones behind the proverbial eight-ball. With a limited amount of game action at Ohio State (269 career pass attempts), scouts needed to see what the young quarterback can offer on the field.
That did take hold during Ohio State’s Pro Day earlier this month where Jones reportedly shined.
At 6-foot-5 and 253 pounds, Jones is one of those big quarterbacks in the mold of a Cam Newton. With a laser for an arm and athleticism to boot, there’s not much to dislike about Jones’ potential down the road.
The primary issue here is projection. Jones boasts an incredibly high ceiling. With that also comes a low floor. He’s going to need to sit for at least two years, making it hard for a team to justify a pick in the first two rounds on him.
Vernon Adams Jr. – Oregon
A surprise addition to this tier, I absolutely love what Adams brings to the table. At 5-foot-11, there are going to be question marks regarding his size. With 9 and 1/8″ hands those questions will be magnified even further.
Heck, Adams’ lack of in-game experience at a high collegiate level will also be of concern. After all, he attempted just 259 passes in his only season with the Ducks.
All this makes Adams a project quarterback at the next level. It is, however, his potential that leads me to believe Adams will find himself picked within the first three rounds.
Decision making, the ability to progress past his first read and a plus-level touch on intermediate passes are three things we have to like about Adams game right now. Add in the ability to extend plays outside of the pocket, and the potential is real here.
Outside of his smallish frame, the biggest concern regarding Adams has to be mechanics. He gets happy feet in the pocket and displays an extended windup that reminds us of Colin Kaepernick when he entered the NFL. Those are two big concerns.
Tier 3
Projects. Plain and simple. None of the three quarterbacks in this tier can be considered immediate contributors. They are also going to need to find the perfect situation in order to extend their careers beyond their rookie deals.
Christian Hackenberg – Penn State
After a stellar freshman season at Penn State, Hackenberg fell off the map these past two seasons. Be it due to horrendous offensive line play or equally bad coaching, he simply failed to progress. In fact, a realistic conclusion could be drawn that Hack regressed each season.
Some want to point to the exterior factors at Happy Valley and in reality, those were important factors in his ability to progress.
Unfortunately, Hackenberg did absolutely nothing to quiet the concerns scouts have regarding him at the combine. He was absolutely atrocious in the position-specific drills, missing location on over half of his passes.
Struggling with anticipation, showing horrendous mechanics and missing on even the easiest of throws, those of us who were bordering on giving him an un-drafted grade were justified in that initial projection.
Still, there is upside here. Hackenberg boasts an electric arm, can make every thrown on the field and will zip the ball through tight windows. That’s going to be enough for some team to exhaust a mid-round pick on him.
Dak Prescott – Mississippi State
A DUI arrest earlier this month is sure to hurt Prescott’s draft stock heading into April. Not that there’s a good time to be caught doing stupid but this was probably the worst possible timing.
On the field, Prescott fits into the same category as Hackenberg in that he was a product of horrendous offensive line play for the Bulldogs. When protected well, Prescott displays a live arm with solid deep-ball accuracy.
And while he will struggle with accuracy on intermediate routes, he has shown an ability to progress through his reads when provided the necessary time to do so.
With the frame, a strong arm and a ton of athleticism, there are going to be multiple teams interested in Prescott’s services. The lingering issue here is the aforementioned DUI arrest.
Brandon Doughty – Western Kentucky
With over 9,900 yards and 97 touchdowns over the past two seasons, Doughty has the numbers to back up talk that he could be an underrated prospect heading into the draft.
The primary issue here is a lack of arm strength. Doughty might be able to make most throws, but he lacks the velocity on the most difficult passes, most of which are going to be asked of him at the next level.
A safer bet than other quarterbacks in this tier, Doughty simply doesn’t possess much starter-caliber upside. That will limit him to being a Day 3 pick.
Tier 4
The ceiling here is career backup. Neither of the two quarterbacks in this tier are going to be starter-caliber players. Instead, their ceilings are as clipboard holders. With the lack of quarterback talent in the NFL, however, they could make a career of this thing.
Kevin Hogan – Stanford
Probably a career backup at best, Hogan failed to really show much after a strong first season as the Cardinal starter. He never developed pro-level mechanics in college, struggles reading defenses and doesn’t possess anywhere near the pocket presence you want in a NFL quarterback.
The positives here: Hogan’s 6-foot-3 frame is ideal for a signal caller at the next level. He also performed in a pro-style offense under David Shaw at Stanford. That’s fine and dandy, but the sixth or seventh round seems to be his ceiling here.
Cody Kessler – Southern California
Much like his former Pac-12 rival, Kessler doesn’t boast the arm strength to beat defenses over the top. As evidenced by his 65 percent career completion percentage, accuracy isn’t really an issue here.
Though, it must be noted that a lot of those completions came on underneath throws while simply taking what the defense gave him.
He struggles with anticipation, isn’t great reading defenses and has seen his mechanics break down on a consistent basis over the years. The ceiling here is a decent No. 2 quarterback, that’s about it.
