Is Jared Goff primed to be fantasy’s most valuable rookie passer this year?
With time ticking away before the 2016 NFL Draft, I’ll take a look at the top named quarterback prospects and offer my thoughts on their fantasy appeal when they arrive on the NFL scene.
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Day One Potential
Jared Goff (Cal)
Despite the panic regarding his small hands, certainly one of the more unusual metrics to be discussed at a modern combine, Goff seized his opportunity to impress the NFL brass in attendance. He threw with impressive accuracy and noticeable rhythm. Of the main prospects among the QB class, he attempted the most passes (529), gained the most yards (4717) and threw the most touchdown passes with 43, in 2015.
His 8.9 yards per attempt were also higher than his contemporaries, as was the 13 picks he threw. However, worrying about interceptions thrown in college would lead some to ignore the NFL success enjoyed by Matt Ryan, and to a lesser extent Jameis Winston, both of whom were somewhat careless with the ball in their last year in college. Goff would be the first signal caller I would take, and the most likely to have immediate fantasy value.
Depending on surrounding talent, his rookie ceiling may approach QB2, but if he ends up on a poor team and his forced to play from behind, he could enjoy some top 12 fantasy weeks. Despite his “tiny mitts,” the Cleveland Browns should seriously consider calling Goff’s name in Chicago.
Carson Wentz (North Dakota State)
Despite an injury interrupted 2015, Wentz has enjoyed a somewhat meteoric rise into the free footballing world’s awareness of late. His unfashionable school aside, his stats last season when projected show a very productive football player. If he had been able to play 13 games, like the other top QB prospects, he would be looking at approximately 386 pass attempts, 241 completions (62.4% completion percentage), 3,066 passing yards and 31 touchdowns.
Even more impressively for fantasy fans were the six rushing touchdowns in just seven games. He had, according to one attendee at the combine, “by far” the best day on the field in Indy. He is bigger, stronger and more athletic than Goff, standing an inch taller and weighing twenty pounds more, but the major knock on him is the level of competition he played against in college.
His dual-threat ability makes him a fascinating prospect, and one who could be worth an add and stash in later rounds of redraft leagues, but between him and Goff I wouldn’t be shocked if Wentz began the 2016 season behind a veteran, depending on where he ends up.
Wait and Grow
Paxton Lynch (Memphis)
An accurate, but not polished passer, Lynch comes from a spread offense in Memphis, a system that as yet is not winning renown for producing “NFL ready” players. He registered the fastest throw at the combine, with some of his pass attempts hitting 59 miles per hour. The overriding impression garnered from Lynch in hearing him speak, and from anonymous evaluators who’ve spoken to him, is that HE thinks he needs to sit behind a starter and learn to be a pro quarterback.
This is not intended to be a knock on the young man, indeed this type of honesty is quite refreshing, but you wonder how many teams can afford to spend a high pick on a player who doesn’t think himself ready to go immediately (Dallas, I’m looking at you). At 6’7, he is surprisingly athletic, and did contribute two rushing scores last season, but he is not a dual threat quarterback, averaging fewer than 2.8 yards per carry for Memphis.
He could develop into a good fantasy option, but the major obstacle one has to consider is where he ends up. He’ll likely be being confined to deep dynasty leagues for now.
Dak Prescott (Mississippi State)
You want a dual threat QB? The numbers would suggest you need look no further than Prescott. Added to 29 touchdown passes against just five interceptions last season, Prescott accounted for no fewer than 10 rushing scores.
By his account, Mississippi State’s offenses featured a lot of “NFL reads,” and his stats would suggest that he was able to run this offense with skill. However, the tape reveals a few technical weaknesses. One evaluator described his footwork as “inconsistent, but mainly awful,” and his accuracy (he completed over 66% of his passes last season) suffers when he is faced with heavy defensive pressure.
He could become the player who some hoped Tim Tebow would be, but it will take a patient period of cultivation. Like Lynch, if you have the roster space in your year long dynasty teams, he could be valuable down the line. But I doubt he will fully deliver on this value in 2016.
More Questions Than Answers
Cardale Jones (Ohio State)
After winning a National Championship as a third stringer for Ohio State in 2014 in just his third college start, Jones beat out Braxton Miller (who changed to wide receiver) and J.T. Barrett to win the starting quarterback job for the Buckeyes in 2015. He enjoyed a steady, if not spectacular, season at the helm before declaring for the draft. He was unable to take full part in drills at the combine, due to a pulled hamstring while running the 40-yard dash.
He will have to rely on his Pro Day to impress the evaluators. Given his still small sample size, it would be surprising if he were drafted in the early rounds, and would be downright shocking if he were to begin the 2016 season as a starter anywhere. But strange things happen in the NFL.
Connor Cook (Michigan State)
Cook seemingly spent most of his college career producing reasons why the NFL should NOT waste their time taking him. Evaluators are “concerned” that he wasn’t a permanent captain at Michigan State though he explains that a “leadership council” decided on each week’s captains. He has come across as aloof and standoffish, which will not impress teams looking to invest their future into a leader of men.
The tape does little to help him, showing a quarterback who alternated between asking a lot of his receivers and tossing them passes that could see them seriously injured if they have to wait to catch them. The sterile environs of the combine did not allow his weakness against defensive pressure to be highlighted, and his completion percentage of 56.1% in 2015 is below all of the prospects I’ve spoken of. He needs to convince an NFL team that they can count on him before I counsel fantasy players as to whether he’s worth a roster spot.
This Year’s Matt Barkley
Christian Hackenberg (Penn State)
Like Goff, Hackenberg is “cursed” with small hands. Unlike Goff, Hackenberg did virtually nothing to overcome this at the combine. In drills, his passing was scattershot and wild, giving pass catchers little opportunity to make a play.
According to NFL.com draft guru Mike Mayock, his game tape “scares him.” He played a lot better with Bill O’Brien as his coach than he did without him, but it is highly doubtful that his former mentor will spend a high pick to come to his rescue.
Of the six signal-callers I have written of here, he delivered the lowest completion percentage last season (53.5%) and had the lowest yards per pass attempt at 7.0. He will be a serious project for someone, but projects do not win fantasy football titles. He can be safely ignored.
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Neil Dutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Neil, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @ndutton13.
