Could Kenneth Dixon become a future fantasy stud?
Whereas the wide receiver position has produced some coveted fantasy assets in the last couple of drafts, this year’s crop is not quite as revered. But when it comes to running backs, there are quite a few names to know among the 2016 draft prospects.
Below, we’ll look at the top running back prospects and their fantasy outlooks for 2016 and beyond.
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Top Prospects
- Ezekiel Elliott (Jr. – Ohio State, 6-0, 225)
The cream of the crop is undoubtedly Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott, whom I first broke down as part of our underclassmen series. Elliott has rushed for 1,800-plus yards (6.6 YPC) in each of the last two seasons to go with 55 catches (93-percent catch rate in 2015) and 41 touchdowns, all the while displaying exceptional vision, burst and cutting ability.
What makes Elliott a true three-down back is the fact that he is also a phenomenal blocker, having allowed just one sack from 108 pass-blocking snaps, per Pro Football Focus. He also ran a 4.47 40-yard dash. Scouts say that Elliott is the most complete back to come out in years, and he is a sure-fire first-round pick, perhaps as early as No. 8 to the RB-needy Philadelphia Eagles.
- Derrick Henry (Jr. – Alabama, 6-3, 247)
Henry has drawn comparisons to LeGarrette Blount for his size and punishing running style, as well as to fellow former Alabama running back Eddie Lacy. Henry’s 4.54 40 at the combine was faster than expected, but it’s not as if he is a prodder, considering he did lead the nation with 2,219 yards and 28 TDs on the ground to take home the Heisman.
His 395 carries this season are a bit concerning, although it’s not likely that he’d be drafted into a situation to be the immediate bell cow. The NFL Draft Advisory Board gave Henry a second-round grade, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him sneak into the back end of the first round. He is also a capable blocker. While Henry doesn’t have the suddenness of Elliott, he is awfully tough to bring down once he gets north and south.
- Devontae Booker (rSr. – Utah, 5-11, 219)
Booker was graded as the No. 5 overall college running back by PFF in 2015, drawing comparisons to Arian Foster for his vision and cutting ability that allowed him to excel in a zone-blocking scheme. Booker is adept at reading blocks, stopping on a dime and making himself small through a hole. A versatile back, Booker ran for 1,261 yards (4.7 YPC) and 11 touchdowns to go with 37 receptions for 318 yards in 2015, often running through arm tackles for extra yards. He ran for 1,500 yards in 2014, needing little time to adjust after transferring from junior college.
Among the concerns are nine fumbles in two years, as well as the fact that Booker has not worked out since knee surgery in November for a torn meniscus that caused him to miss Utah’s final three games. Like all rookies, he also needs some work in pass protection.
- Kenneth Dixon (Sr. – Louisiana Tech, 5-10, 215)
Dixon’s stock rose with an impressive week at the Senior Bowl, and scouts particularly like his soft hands and comfort in pass routes. The FBS record holder for total touchdowns (72 rushing and 15 receiving), Dixon projects as a future three-down back who can play on third downs right away. As a senior in 2015, he ran for 1,070 yards (5.4 YPC) and 19 TDs to go with 34 catches for 467 yards and another seven scores. A former “Mr. Football” in the state of Arkansas, Dixon has a compact build similar to Doug Martin and runs with decisiveness.
Like Booker, Dixon also needs to work on ball security, having put the ball on the ground 13 times in college.
- Alex Collins (Jr. – Arkansas, 5-10, 217)
Collins is virtually the same size as Dixon and ran a nearly identical 40 at the combine (4.58 to 4.59). Collins was supremely productive in the SEC, churning out three straight 1,000-yard seasons culminating in a 2015 campaign that saw him rush for 1,577 yards (5.8 YPC) and 20 TDs. The only other SEC rushers to eclipse 1,000 yards in three straight years were Herschel Walker and Darren McFadden. Collins sets up his blocks in a patient manner similar to Le’Veon Bell, and he combines light feet with a physical, forward lean to burst through holes and consistently net positive gains.
Collins has three-down potential but doesn’t stand out in any one particular area. Some pundits prefer his Razorbacks’ teammate, Jonathan Williams, who ran for a team-high 1,190 yards in 2014 before a foot injury cost him the 2015 season. Still, Collins, was ranked the No. 1 running back in the nation coming out of high school, and showed he can be productive in a pro-style offense against elite competition.
- Paul Perkins (rJr. – UCLA, 5-10, 208)
As a junior in 2015, Perkins overcame some nagging injuries to rush for 1,343 yards (5.7 YPC) and 14 TDs to go with 30 catches for 242 yards and a score. It was a nice followup to his breakout sophomore campaign in which he ran for a Pac-12-best 1,575 yards (6.3 YPC) and 11 total TDs, becoming the first Bruins’ back since DeShaun Foster in 2001 to lead the conference in rushing. Perkins has a nice blend of power, speed and elusiveness. He also demonstrated patience and vision to find creases in UCLA’s spread attack. Perkins ran a 4.54 40 at the combine and drew solid praise in field drills.
While not undersized by NFL standards, he may lack the kind of frame that will allow him to consistently break tackles at the next level. Still, Perkins is the type of back who could return exceptional value for a team in the third or fourth round, where many a fantasy star has been born.
- C.J. Prosise (rJr. – Notre Dame, 6-0, 220)
Another potential mid-round steal is Notre Dame’s C.J. Prosise, who ran for 1,032 yards (6.6 YPC) and 11 TDs in an injury-shortened season, averaging 115 rushing yards per start. The interesting thing about Prosise is that he played safety and wide receiver prior to 2015 (29-516-2 in 2014). Arizona’s David Johnson made a similar transition at Northern Iowa, but only time will tell if Prosise has that kind of future. At six feet tall and 220 pounds, Prosise certainly has the physical makeup of an NFL running back, not to mention the burst, vision and balance he displayed for the Fighting Irish this past season.
While his receiving chops are unquestioned, ball security, pass protection and pad level are the main areas where Prosise will need work. The ideal fit would be with a team that has an established starter and can take a patient approach with Prosise’s raw skill set. He ran a 4.48 40 at the combine.
Honorable Mention
You could make an argument for any of the below players on this list and, as such, they are worth monitoring throughout this offseason.
Jordan Howard (Jr. – Indiana, 6-0, 230)
A UAB transfer, Howard shared IU’s backfield with Tevin Coleman in 2014, then ran for 1,213 yards (6.2 YPC, 135 YPG) and nine scores in 2015 despite missing four games due to injury. He set a personal best with 238 rushing yards against Michigan’s top-five run defense, inviting contact and finishing runs.
Jonathan Williams (Sr. – Arkansas, 5-11, 220)
As mentioned above, Williams missed the 2015 season due to a foot injury but was highly productive in 2014 and showed well at Senior Bowl drills. A stout blocker, Williams was clocked at 4.63 at his personal workout and benched 225 pounds 16 times at the combine.
Kenyan Drake (Sr. – Alabama, 6-10, 210)
The “Robin” to Derrick Henry’s “Batman,” Drake averaged 5.4 yards on 76 carries and added 27 catches for 255 yards this past season. He also ran a 4.45 40 at the combine and impressed at the Senior Bowl. Injuries are a concern (an arm injury cost him a few games late in the regular season), but Drake certainly has the look of an immediate weapon on passing downs.
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Mike Castiglione is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, you can view his archive or follow him @RickDancin.
