Trying to discern spring training statistics for future fantasy breakouts is difficult to do. Especially in regards to pitchers. Veterans are trying to incorporate new pitches or working on varying their sequences to attack batters. But when young pitchers are in a battle to make a starting rotation, watching how they do in regards to strikeout to walk rates seems to be a strong indicator.
Toronto is a fantasy powerhouse in regards to its offense, but their starting pitching has not been stable this spring. In the off-season, Aaron Sanchez changed his training routine to add more weight to his frame in hopes of sticking in the rotation. Last year he made 11 starts but with mixed results as he put too much traffic on the bases, ultimately returning to the bullpen as the season progressed.
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With the added weight and pounding the strike zone this spring, Sanchez looks like a different pitcher. His results seem to agree as he has struck out 19 in 20 innings of work for Toronto. But the more impressive aspect is he has only walked three. This is a far cry from his splits as a starter for Toronto last year when he had a 42:37 K:BB in 66 innings pitched. Sanchez was able to win five games in spite of his wildness with the Blue Jays’ run support in his back pocket.
As long as Sanchez can carry the spring approach to the major league season, he would slot in nicely as the Blue Jays’ fifth starter. His main competition is Gavin Floyd, but he could be trade bait for one of the many teams in a rebuild so Toronto can pave the way for Sanchez who will not turn 24 until July.
According to our site, Sanchez has an average ADP of 312.3 which makes him a perfect late-round flier with strikeout upside. His arsenal is there and as long as he throws strikes and is aggressive, he could be a very underrated starter for deeper leagues and AL-only drafts.
His past performance may make other fantasy owners tepid about his chances in the rotation, but use the 19:3 K:BB this spring as a guide. Sanchez is a pitcher who may be ready to take the leap in value for 2016. According to BrooksBaseball.net, Sanchez’s whiff per swing rate on his curve is 30 percent, his cutter produces a 35.7 whiff rate and his change, though used less often, generates a 41.67 whiff percentage.
There may be some bumps in the road, but Sanchez looks like a different pitcher this spring. As long as he is in the rotation, he is worth the risk in upcoming fantasy drafts. Especially as a draft-and-stash option.
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Greg Jewett is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Greg, check out his archive and follow him @gjewett9.