In 2010, a 20-year-old outfielder named Mike Stanton burst onto the baseball scene by clubbing 22 home runs in just 100 games in his first year in the majors. Super-stardom seemed certain. In the six years that have followed, Stanton has not disappointed. He changed his name to Giancarlo, has made three All-Star teams, finished second in the 2014 MVP voting, and signed the largest contract in the history of professional sports. So why does it feel like we are still waiting for Stanton to break out?
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The simple answer to this question is injuries. If we ignore his rookie year, since he was not called up until June, Stanton has played in at least 145 games just twice in his five full seasons with the Marlins. In the most recent season that Stanton did, 2014, he led the National League with 37 home runs and a .555 slugging percentage as a 24-year-old.
Stanton, therefore, had high expectations coming into 2015 and was often taken in the top three selections of fantasy drafts. He looked worthy of that investment early on, smacking 27 home runs with 67 RBI in just 74 games, numbers that put him on pace for 58 long balls with 145 RBI! However, a broken hand cut his season short and he did not play a game after June 27. He got off to a slow start this season but has shown signs of positive regression with home runs in each of his last two games.
So, there are two ways to look at Stanton’s career. One is to say that he broke out in 2014, had a bad luck injury in 2015, and is just off to a slow start this season. The more pessimistic view is to say that Stanton is what he is at this point. Similar to Troy Tulowitzki, he will give you elite numbers when healthy but can’t be counted on for a full season. While this is a valuable fantasy asset, it makes him more of a second-to-third round draft pick than a top three selection.
Stanton’s value is tough to measure if you can’t rely on him for a full season. For example, how does he compare to another second-to-third round player; outfielder Mookie Betts? Most experts would consider Betts “safer” since he contributes in categories like batting average and stolen bases where Stanton does not.
But the goal of fantasy baseball is to finish first, not fifth. So, while a Stanton injury could derail a fantasy season, the home run upside in a power-starved league is too immense to ignore. Trade for Stanton as a top 10 fantasy asset, and pray he stays healthy.
Brendan Tuma is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Brendan, check out his archive and follow him @toomuchtuma.