Skip to main content

5 Wide Receivers with Bust Potential

5 Wide Receivers with Bust Potential
Brandon Marshall played big last season but could seriously disappoint in 2016

Brandon Marshall played big last season but could seriously disappoint in 2016

There is no doubt that the top ranked receivers in the consensus are all talented individuals. Unfortunately, talent does not always translate to fantasy production and that’s when our fantasy teams can take a major hit. Whether it’s injury history or surrounding talent at other positions, there are warning signs that we can look at that should factor into our decision making.

We’re asking the experts for their thoughts on which wide receivers owners should be cautious of when heading into their drafts.

Prep for your draft with our free Mock Draft Simulator partner-arrow

What WR in our consensus top 24 should fantasy owners fear the most as a bust candidate?

Brandon Marshall (NYJ)
WR Rank: #11
“Marshall has some major red flags heading into 2016. He is 32 years of age, the year most WRs start dropping off talent-wise, and he has a really bad quarterback situation (Ryan Fitzpatrick is still in a contract stalemate). Geno Smith is certainly not the answer. I think only disappointment awaits those expecting Marshall to even sniff last year’s numbers of 109/1,502/14 TDs. I wouldn’t be shocked if he pulled in 1/3 less production across the board, with maybe even a bigger hit than that in the TD department. I’m not saying avoid him at all costs come August, but I wouldn’t rank him anywhere near No. 11 for WRs, which is ahead of Amari Cooper, Demaryius Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and a handful of other safer options.”
Smitty (SleeperU)

Keenan Allen (SD)
Receiver Rank: #12
Jarvis Landry would be the easy answer, but based on the asking price, Keenan Allen could be a more costly miss. People are obsessing over Allen’s 2015 pace stats and overlooking the warts, including an unsatisfying 2014 performance. Allen is a marvelous route runner with dependable hands, but he’s slow, TD-deficient and somewhat fragile, labeled as ‘high risk’ by Sports Injury Predictor. He’s averaged 10.47 yards per catch over the last two years and 0.43 TDs per game for his career. It’s volume dependence and a low TD rate that have so many people down on Jarvis Landry, and perhaps we should be wary of Allen for the same reasons.”
Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl)

Allen Robinson (JAC)
Receiver Rank: #7
“Robinson ‘only’ had 80 receptions last year and was very reliant on touchdowns to push him up into the fantasy elite. My concern is that we see a small regression from Blake Bortles. I am also expecting a more balanced offensive approach with newly-signed RB Chris Ivory now paired with T.J. Yeldon. Ivory gives Jacksonville a goal-line runner which the franchise lacked previously, so there could be fewer throws made around the goal line. Finally, sprinkle in a dash of TE Julius Thomas improving in the red zone and all of a sudden, Robinson could go from 14 TDs in 2015 to less than half that total in 2016. A-Rob’s talent was proven last year; however, this offense has multiple options at every position. Jacksonville’s defense is also improving, so there could be less garbage time for Robinson to stockpile stats late in games. Robinson won’t be a full-blown bust, but it’s a tall task to replicate such huge numbers and meet the expectations that come with them.”
Matt De Lima (ScoutFantasy)

Kelvin Benjamin (CAR)
Receiver Rank: #19
“Benjamin finished as a top-15 wide receiver in his rookie season but needed a massive 29.3% target market share (fourth-highest in the league) to make it happen. His current ranking assumes Benjamin will once again see close to 150 targets because his career 6.95 yards per target average suggests it’s the only way he’ll sniff 1,000 receiving yards. It seems more likely Benjamin receives closer to 120 targets this year, which would cap his upside in the WR26-30 range. If the early training camp buzz can be believed, Devin Funchess will command a larger target share in his sophomore season. Despite some flagrant drops, Ted Ginn Jr. proved deserving of a role as Carolina’s primary deep threat. And last year’s team target leader Greg Olsen is locked into his usual 120+ looks from Cam Newton. Speaking of Newton, we can probably expect his league leading 7.1% touchdown percentage to normalize a bit this season, which is more bad news for Benjamin, who contrary to popular belief is not exactly a red zone monster. While it’s true Benjamin dominated red zone looks for Carolina as a rookie, he converted only three touchdowns on 17 targets (17.6%) — a full 5% lower than the league average red zone touchdown conversion rate in 2014. ”
Phil Alexander (Footballguys)

Sammy Watkins (BUF)
Receiver Rank: #17
“Fantasy owners should fear drafting Sammy Watkins at his consensus ranking of WR17. The current expectation is that Watkins may miss training camp and he’s said he hasn’t run in 3-4 weeks. I’m staying clear of a WR2 who is getting a late start on the season as they typically are out with a hamstring injury soon after. Owners should fear the fact that Watkins caught 44% of his receiving yards in just 3 of his 13 games. Additionally, he had 3 or fewer receptions in 5 of those 13 games.”
Scott Whitfield (Roto Rankings)

More WR Busts:

Thank you to all the experts for naming their wide receiver bust candidates. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter for advice all season long.

More Articles

3 Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Running Backs (2024)

3 Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Running Backs (2024)

fp-headshot by Anthony Corrente | 2 min read
Fantasy Football Mock Draft: FFPC Best Ball Picks (2024)

Fantasy Football Mock Draft: FFPC Best Ball Picks (2024)

fp-headshot by Tom Strachan | 3 min read
3 Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid: Tight Ends (2024)

3 Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid: Tight Ends (2024)

fp-headshot by Mike Fanelli | 2 min read
RB3s with RB1 Potential (2024 Fantasy Football)

RB3s with RB1 Potential (2024 Fantasy Football)

fp-headshot by TJ Horgan | 3 min read

About Author

Hide

Current Article

3 min read

3 Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Running Backs (2024)

Next Up - 3 Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Running Backs (2024)

Next Article