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Evaluating the WR-WR Strategy

Evaluating the WR-WR Strategy
WR-WR Strategy

Is the WR-WR Strategy the way to go in 2016?

The NFL’s trend toward up-tempo, aerial attacks over the past five years has drastically changed the strategic planning for a fantasy football draft.

Before the most recent decade, it was almost a lock that the No. 1 overall pick would be a running back and at least half of the first round picks would be spent on rushers.

Those days are coming to an end quickly. Eleven of the top 20 fantasy scorers playing skill positions (excluding QBs and defenses) were wide receivers. Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown is rated as our No. 1 overall player this season in our preseason rankings. Wide receivers make up three of the top four players on our list and also four of the top 10.

The game is changing, but this change also makes it easier to find wide receivers later in drafts. The position is as deep as it’s been as there are at least eight to 10 wideouts who are worthy of being No. 1 fantasy options.

So, is 2016 finally the year to take consecutive receivers in the first two rounds of our draft? I ran through several mock draft scenarios (using our Draft Simulator tool, which you should definitely check out) to determine whether the strategy is worthwhile. Below are the results, plus my analysis and thought process for the first 10 picks.

Note: Picks were made without accounting for injuries and bye week conundrums, as these were merely mock drafts used to test the WR-WR theory. Each draft was a snake format. Rosters contained 16 players with one starting quarterback, two starting running backs and wide receivers, a FLEX, a tight end, a D/ST and a kicker.

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Scenario 1: 10-team league, picking 10th, standard rules 

It didn’t exactly matter what order I chose these wideouts. I believe Robinson is a bonafide No. 1 receiver and am sipping the Kool Aid on Jacksonville’s offensive upside in 2016. Green, when healthy, is a stud, and it’s tough to ask for a better receiving group out of the 10-hole.

This is the risk of the WR-WR strategy, especially if you’re picking later in your draft. The 19-pick gap between my second and third-round selection thinned the running back crop out quite a bit, and I was left with Anderson. He could see a bigger role now that Gary Kubiak will get an opportunity to fully install his zone-read running offense, but he is still a major risk as my No. 1 back. I like Rawls a lot and believe he could be a top 10 tailback if healthy. The injury and Seattle’s deep stable of backs concerns me, but Rawls is an upside pick in the fourth round and with my backfield options running out, I had to make this choice.

I was really happy with both of these picks. Benjamin is a potential steal in Round 5 and pretty much gives my wide receiving group a chance to be the best in this league. Getting another stud at wide receiver also mitigates my void at tailback. You could argue that I should’ve waited on a tight end, but I believe the drop off between the top six or seven tight ends and the rest of the bunch is steeper than normal. Walker is an established, reliable tight end and I don’t see a weapon emerging for Marcus Mariota to throw to on the outside anytime soon.

The best backs available were Jonathan Stewart, Jay Ajayi, Dion Lewis and Matt Jones. I took a gamble on assuming I could get one later and it backfired.

As you can see, I lost out on the four backs mentioned above. Although I don’t feel stupendous about these two as my No. 3 back, I think there’s some upside here. There’s a reason the Bears let Matt Forte leave without even extending an offer, and I expect Langford to play a significant role offensively. Gordon’s value is obviously diminished by Danny Woodhead‘s presence, but an improved offensive line should help the second-year back put up better numbers. All of the teams around me have a quarterback, so I’m content with waiting and trying to find a diamond in the rough.

Why not kick the tires on ole Larry Fitz after the season he had? It’s unlikely he’ll repeat his rejuvenating campaign, but it’s hard to assume he will drop off substantially in Bruce Arians’ offense. Manning isn’t a perfect starting quarterback and he’s someone I will definitely have to backup. But he threw for more than 4,400 yards and 35 touchdowns a year ago and the Giants’ offense should improve around him.

Rest of the picks: Jordan Howard, Bilal Powell, Derek Carr, Cardinals D/ST, Stefon Diggs (I forgot to take a kicker, sue me).

Final summary: Obviously, this roster has some issues at running back and my season would hinge upon Anderson, Langford and Gordon. I also don’t feel wonderful about Manning as my quarterback, but could’ve done worse. This isn’t a bad team, but it needs two of those three tailbacks to produce.

Scenario 2: 10-team, picking 1st, standard scoring 

The next hypothesis I had was that picking at the very top of the draft would provide better running back options after going WR-WR than picking at the very bottom. That hypothesis was fairly correct.

Brown was a no-brainer with the first pick. I have my concerns about Marshall given his current quarterback situation with the Jets, but believe he will still be a top-12 wideout in 2016.

Having Mark Ingram left as my No. 1 running back is much better than Anderson. I also snagged Rawls in the fourth round again, but nine picks later. Both of these tailbacks have the same bye, but that’s not going to deter me while drafting.

I really liked Murray in the fifth round. Suddenly, I have a solid mix of depth and upside in my backfield. With Brown and Marshall, this is a running back corps that can keep me afloat throughout the season.

Brady is suspended for the first four games, but getting him in the sixth round was still decent value. I like the well-roundedness of my roster and felt Brady was worth the selection before my long layoff. Getting Sanders in the eighth seems like an enormous steal, no matter who the quarterback is in Denver. I believe Sanders is less likely to be affected by the quarterback play than Demaryius Thomas because Sanders thrives underneath and also has big-play ability downfield.

If this were PPR I’d be salivating over Woodhead, but he still has decent value and is not bad for a No. 4 back. Nobody knows what to expect from White, but he should be seeking to prove himself after missing his entire rookie season.

Rest of the picks: Buck Allen, Derek Carr, Tevin Coleman, Stefon Diggs, Seahawks D/ST, Blair Walsh.

Final summary: I like this team much more than my previous draft. There’s good roster balance and enough star power at wide receiver to carry me without Brady. Each of my running backs have the potential to finish in the top 15 at their position, which might be necessary for a successful season.

Scenario 3: 12-team, picking 6th, PPR 

Obviously, receivers have more value in PPR formats, but I was also curious to see how things would shape out in the middle of a draft with more teams in the mix.

Let it be known I passed up on Adrian Peterson for the sake of the strategy, but this is a pretty good start. Hopkins and Nelson are both No. 1 wide receivers, and although I’m worried about Nelson returning from ACL surgery, I’m confident that he will be just fine with Aaron Rodgers slinging passes. Brandon Marshall was also available in the second round, but I chose Nelson because of quarterback play (Rodgers > Geno Smith/Ryan Fitzpatrick).

I’m more than happy with this backfield tandem. Martin revived his career last season and appears to officially be a legitimate starting running back. Yes, I know. I picked Rawls in each draft.

Getting Wilson in the fifth round was too good to pass up. I’m typically keen on waiting to take a quarterback (I took Cam Newton in the 12th round in one league last year, that paid off), but the running back crop available was lousy and I already have two No. 1 wideouts. There was a bit more urgency with this pick knowing it was a 12-team format.

I’m not a big believer in Matthews, but I also needed to add some more receiving depth and he appears to be the No. 1 target in Philadelphia. Crabtree proved to be a steady No. 2 option behind Amari Cooper, and I like him in a pinch.

Nobody knows what the heck Detroit is doing with its tailback situation. But Riddick was third on the team with 80 receptions and Calvin Johnson‘s retirement means Matthew Stafford could be checking down a bit more this season. Tight end sort of became an afterthought here. I’ll likely be streaming this position by Week 3, but perhaps I can find a reliable starter out of Gates or Graham.

Rest of draft: Tevin Coleman, Jameis Winston, Panthers D/ST, Ronnie Hillman, Chandler Catanzaro

Final summary: There aren’t many gripes to be had with this team, either. I have two really good wideouts, a No. 1 tailback with plenty of depth behind him and one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in the league. Roster balance is crucial in a 12-team league. Aside from tight end, I shouldn’t be hitting the waiver wires trying to fill holes too often.

Conclusion

The WR-WR strategy is a sound one, but I wouldn’t recommend it if you’re picking at the end of your draft. Obviously, your drafts won’t go exactly how these examples panned out, but through other experiments I realized the talent left at running back if you were picking at the back-end of a snake draft was much more uninspiring entering the third and fourth rounds than at the top of the draft.

Wide receivers also appear to be safer bets in the early rounds than running backs. But there are also more reliable wide receivers later in the draft than there are running backs. Only 26 points separated the No. 1 wideout (Antonio Brown) and the No. 6 wideout (DeAndre Hopkins), but 59 points separated last season’s No. 1 rusher (Devonta Freeman) from the No. 6 rusher (Lamar Miller).

The WR-WR strategy still feels like an aggressive one. As a believer in roster balance, I’d typically stay away from taking two wide receivers in the first two rounds. The way I see it, the drop off between your No. 1 and No. 2 wide receiver won’t be as steep if you only take one pass catcher in the first two rounds. But, a catastrophe could ensue at running back if the position is neglected during that same span. One really bad position group can outweigh even the best one.

Also, check out our WR bust candidates

Matt Barbato is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Matt, you can view his archive or follow him @realmattbarbato.

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