2016 Wide Receiver Bounce-Back Candidates (Fantasy Football)

Demaryius Thomas may be severely undervalued this season

Eric Moody discusses six wide receivers that are set to bounce back in the upcoming fantasy football season.

Cognitive biases are tendencies to think in certain ways that can lead to deviations from a standard of rationality or good judgment. I am fascinated with the parallels of investing and fantasy football. Recency bias is where investors evaluate their portfolio performance based on recent results or their perspective of recent results and make the wrong conclusions that ultimately lead to incorrect decisions about how the stock market behaves.

This is a very important concept to understand in fantasy football. It is the equivalent of driving in your car constantly looking through the rear view mirror instead of looking straight ahead. The purpose of this article is to showcase five wide receivers currently being drafted outside of the first two rounds in 12-team leagues who are primed for a bounce back season.

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Randall Cobb (GB)
Cobb struggled mightily last season due to a lingering shoulder injury and the loss of wide receiver Jordy Nelson. It was clear that the Packers’ offense struggled having a slot receiver as its primary pass catcher due to Davante Adams not emerging in 2015. The offense scored 2.63 points per drive in 2014, but that statistic dropped to 1.80 in 2015.

A slot receiver lines up inside the formation between a another wide receiver and the offensive line. Cobb lined up in the slot on 83.5 percent of his offensive snaps last season. He led the team in targets (129) and received one on 12.1 percent of his overall offensive snaps.

The return of Nelson will give the Packers the vertical threat their offense was missing last season. He and Cobb both finished as top eight fantasy wide receivers in 2014. If Nelson is slow to return to form, then Cobb has the potential to lead the Packers in targets and receiving yards.

I have seen Cobb drafted in mock drafts as late as the fourth round. He is a candidate to easily outperform his average draft position.

Demaryius Thomas (DEN)
Thomas is criminally undervalued heading into 2016. He dealt with some adversity last season that impacted his play on the field. Quarterback Peyton Manning literally broke down physically before our eyes.

Thomas landed the monster contract but had trouble focusing last season due to the release of his mother from prison. This lack of focus manifested itself on the football field with 12 drops. He also dealt with numerous injuries to his back, hip and neck.

Thomas had a great offseason and according to reports out of Denver he has a renewed focus. Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak’s offensive scheme has a track record of success. I see Mark Sanchez being a better fit for the offense than Manning due to him being open to coaching and truly embracing Kubiak’s scheme.

The scheme has had success with quarterbacks not named John Elway. Kubiak’s offense also heavily targets the X wide receiver and I do not see Thomas’ target volume regressing much at all this season.

Former Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson built the foundation of his career in this offensive scheme. Here is a visual of what Johnson did statistically with Kubiak in Houston from 2006 to 2013.

Let’s dismiss another narrative out there surrounding Thomas heading into this season. Even if the Broncos are a more run-oriented team Thomas can still finish as a WR1. The great Broncos wide receiver Rod Smith was Kubiak’s X wide receiver for many seasons.

He received 170 targets or more in 2000 and 2001. The Broncos had the fourth most rushing attempts (516) in 2000 and the sixth most (481) in 2001. 

Thomas is a wide receiver I have seen routinely be drafted in the third and even fourth round depending on the size of your fantasy league. He has the potential to finish this season as a top 10 fantasy wide receiver in 2016. 

Kelvin Benjamin (CAR)
Benjamin has physical gifts that few NFL wide receivers have. He is 6’5, 240 pounds, with 35 inch arms and 10 inch hands. This is the type of catching radius that Benjamin gives Cam Newton in addition to leveraging his very good physical strength to impose his will on opposing defenders.

Benjamin was force fed 52 percent of the wide receiver targets back during his rookie season in 2014. He missed last season due to an ACL injury in August of 2015. Newton was forced to grow as a quarterback, the offense was forced to become more balanced, allowing him to maximize all of his receiving weapons.

This culminated in him being named the NFL’s Most Valuable Player last season. The Panthers offense is sure to regress this season after scoring 2.4 points per drive in 2015. Benjamin is the most legitimate red zone threat the Panthers have and is still their No. 1 wide receiver.

I anticipate he bounces back nicely. For a more detailed analysis on Benjamin please read my article at RotoViz.

Torrey Smith (SF)
Smith is looking to bounce back from a career low 33 receptions and 663 receiving yards in first season in San Francisco after signing with the 49ers in free agency. He also matched his career low in touchdown receptions (four). The 49ers’ offense was a disaster last season producing 1.28 points per drive with only 0.22 percent making it to the red zone.

The opportunity for Smith in 2016 revolves around new 49ers head coach and offensive guru Chip Kelly. He is expected to fill the role of the X wide receiver in Kelly’s offensive scheme. This was a role that propelled DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin to finish as top 10 fantasy wide receivers.

Both players had 80 or more receptions and greater than 1,300 receiving yards in Kelly’s offense. Smith is known for his very good play speed and the scheme is designed to attack defenses vertically. Here is a visual of how what Maclin’s adjusted yards per attempt looked like in Kelly’s scheme back in 2014.

Phillip Dorsett (IND)
Dorsett dealt with injuries as a rookie last season and only played 234 offensive snaps, but was targeted on 17 percent of them. The Indianapolis Star mentioned that the Colts’ offense will feature three wide receiver sets as opposed to the two-tight end sets the team has used for the majority of Andrew Luck’s career. The Colts do not have much wide receiver depth behind T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief.

Dorsett has a chance to provide WR3 value if the offense recreate its 2014 production. The Colts produced 2.18 points per drive that season with 38 percent of them making it to the red zone.

Jaelen Strong (HOU)
Strong is drawing rave reviews out of Texans camp. The Houston Chronicle mentioned that he reported “optimal condition.” It appears Strong has trained mentally and physically during his first full NFL offseason in order to make an impact in his second year as a professional.

He only played 318 snaps as a rookie. Strong should have an opportunity to shine opposite of DeAndre Hopkins. He should face a ton of single coverage given the defensive attention Hopkins demands.

My concern is how much target volume will Strong receive in 2016. The Texans signed Lamar Miller to a four year, $26 million dollar contract in free agency. That includes $14 million guaranteed.

Money talks in the NFL and the Texans are likely to run the football early and often. Strong is in a position to win the Texans’ No. 2 wide receiver job. He would need an injury to make more of an immediate impact for fantasy football. Strong is better suited to be drafted in deeper leagues.  

Conclusion
My intent with this article was to provide you with a list of bounce back wide receivers at various ADPs that can be targeted in your fantasy draft. Cobb, Thomas and Smith have the potential to greatly outperform their ADP. Dorsett and Strong are wide receivers that can be stashed on your bench. They could have a greater fantasy impact if Hilton, Moncrief or Hopkins were to miss games due to an injury.

These are an excellent group of receivers to keep on your radar as you navigate fantasy football drafts in the coming weeks. Feel free to check out my FantasyPros articles to assist you in draft preparation.

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