What to Expect From Brandon Marshall
Eric Moody lets fantasy owners know what they can expect from Jets WR Brandon Marshall in 2016.
Brandon Marshall finished the 2015 season as a top-three fantasy wide receiver in standard and PPR (points per reception) formats. He was drafted anywhere from the fifth to sixth round heading into last season according to Fantasy Football Calculator. Marshall was a wide receiver that outperformed his ADP (average draft position) producing 2.12 fantasy points per reception in Jets offensive coordinator Chan Gailey’s offense. What can fantasy owners expect from him in 2016?
Marshall’s 2015 Production
Marshall received 10 or more targets in 69 percent of the Jets’ game last season. This type of target volume creates opportunities and a consistent floor for fantasy owners week in and week out. Marshall averaged 14.4 points per game in 2015 and had the 11th highest DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) among wide receivers (303) according to Football Outsiders. DYAR boils down to a wide receiver with more total value. Marshall played 95 percent of the Jets’ offensive snaps in 2015 and was targeted by a pass attempt on 16 percent of them. He also ranked in the top five among wide receivers in terms of total targets inside the 20-yard line.
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Marshall tied Allen Robinson and Doug Baldwin for the most receiving touchdowns in the NFL last season. The Jets relentlessly targeted their top two wide receivers in the red zone in 2015.
What is Marshall’s risk for injury?
Marshall is classified as a low injury risk (8 percent) according to Sports Injury Predictor.
Marshall has also lost 10 pounds during the offseason, and according to ESPN reported to Jets training camp at 224 pounds. He continues to take care of himself and at 32 years old is still in prime physical condition. It is important to have a WR1 you can depend on not only in fantasy production but also in dependability. Marshall fits that criteria.
What is Marshall’s ADP and should I draft him there?
Marshall is currently WR9 according to FantasyPros consensus rankings. The asking price for him is generally in the second round. If Marshall happens to fall to the third round you owe it to yourself and your fantasy team to draft him. He has finished as a top-five fantasy wide receiver in his last three healthy seasons. I view Marshall as a low-end WR1 who will be in a position to replicate his production from last season in the Jets’ offense.
Why should I draft Marshall and what type of production can I expect?
The Jets produced the 10th highest points per drive last season (1.96). Once the offense made it to the red zone they scored a touchdown 72 percent of the time. Marshall will continue to be a big part of the Jets’ offense in the red zone. Offensive coordinator Chan Gailey is still handling the play calling and his schemes have a history of being friendly to fantasy owners. The perfect spot to draft Marshall is in the latter part of the first round or early second. Imagine starting a draft with Todd Gurley and Marshall as your first two picks. You could even draft two wide receivers and end up with Dez Bryant and Marshall. He is a relatively safe draft selection early in your draft. Here is a custom projection I created for Marshall leveraging the RotoViz Projection Machine. It is a great forecasting dashboard with two main components; assumptions, and output. The goal of the dashboard is to allow you to test assumptions based on offensive tendencies. My intent is to run a projection to simulate Marshall’s usage based on how Gailey uses his number one wide receiver. Here are the results using a four-year average of Marshall’s target share, catch rate, yards per target, and touchdown rate:
- Targets: 165.38
- Receptions: 100.88
- Receiving Yards: 1,289.98
- Receiving TDs: 11.99
- PPR scoring: 301.82
If this projection came to fruition based on last season’s wide receiver production in PPR formats Marshall would have finished in the top eight for the position. Draft him with confidence in 2016.