Defense Wins Championships (Week 1)

Whether you have been playing fantasy football for years or you are about to start your very first draft, team defenses (or D/STs) seem to remain one of the least-understood positions in the game. They are fickle. They are unpredictable. They are either your best friend or your worst enemy, and it can be downright impossible to tell which before the games are over. Even the best projection models in the world would never be able to solve this problem, but we can do our best to approximate things and gain edges where we can.

One of those edges comes from the D/ST, whose very instability is what allows us to exploit. Teams off the waiver wire can top the scoreboards, and teams highly drafted can fall flat – and while this is possible with every position, it’s far more pronounced with D/STs.

THE BASICS

The most important thing to remember is that you cannot predict high scores, you can only predict good scoring opportunities. It is relatively trivial to come up with a list of teams that should be in the top 8 or top 12 every week, and we can do that with relatively high rates of success. However, predicting the teams that will be #1 or top 3 is much, much more difficult, and any projection’s correlation will approach zero.

The reason? Those top 1-3 teams find themselves there by way of defensive TDs, which are rare and unpredictable by their very nature. Don’t try and predict them. Instead, try and predict which teams will have the most chances to turn the ball over.

WHAT TO LOOK FOR

While these rules will not work in every situation, they are a very good start for when it is time to select a defense.

1. You want a team that is favored by Vegas, and which is preferably playing at home.
2. You want a team whose opponent is a relatively inefficient, high-volume or turnover-prone offense, and/or which has a very poor offensive line.

That’s it!

Seriously, that’s it. You should obviously prefer a low-scoring environment, but “points allowed” tends to be only loosely correlated with high D/ST scores, and they remain a much smaller component of the Yahtzee scores that come from defensive touchdowns and boatloads of sacks.

It’s not magic. It’s not upper-level math. It’s mostly common sense, but the fun comes when you have a handful of options that all have their pluses and minuses. That’s where this column comes in. I started this in 2012 when I literally did the math by hand on the bus to and from work each day. I have since enhanced the methodology a little bit (or a lot), but the basic theories are the same.

So, without further ado, here is the very first set of projections for 2016s D/STs:

Week 1 D/ST Scoring (Team – expected points – tier) – all scoring assumes MFL Standard.

1. Carolina Panthers – 11.3 – Tier 1
2. Kansas City Chiefs – 10.7 – Tier 1
3. Seattle Seahawks – 10.6 – Tier 1
4. Arizona Cardinals – 9.5 – Tier 2
5. Philadelphia Eagles – 9.5 – Tier 2
6. Houston Texans – 9.4 – Tier 2
7. Green Bay Packers – 9.3 – Tier 2
8. Los Angeles Rams – 9.2 – Tier 2
9. Cincinnati Bengals – 9.2 – Tier 2
10. Denver Broncos – 8.8 – Tier 3
11. New York Jets – 8.8 – Tier 3
12. Pittsburgh Steelers – 8.5 – Tier 3
13. Indianapolis Colts – 8.4 – Tier 3
14. Minnesota Vikings – 8.2 – Tier 3
15. Tennessee Titans – 8.1 – Tier 3
16. New York Giants – 7.5 – Tier 4

Also on the fourth tier are New England Patriots (7.4), Baltimore Ravens (7.0), Atlanta Falcons (7.0), and Cleveland Browns (6.9).

Tier 1 – Carolina, Kansas City, and Seattle

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Now, it’s very important to remember that each of these teams are being ranked based on their 2015 performances, and each team did very well in 2015. So, some amount of tempering of expectations is required just in case we get some regression or random variance going forward. That said, each team has a lot to like this weekend.

Carolina gets the defending Super Bowl champions, and they’re unfortunately playing on the road. However, they are also playing against Trevor Siemian in his first ever NFL start. Siemian is a unique character; he is quite possibly the most inexperienced QB to ever start for a defending champion team, and he gets a brutal defense right out of the gates. Carolina has a very strong front seven and should be able to get a lot of pressure on the young QB. Their linebackers are probably stronger this year than last year, and while their secondary might not be as good as they were in 2015, they should still be very good all around. A team like Carolina has few holes, and so a game like this makes them an easy bet.

Kansas City is missing Justin Houston, who starts the season on the PUP list. That said, there is very little to fear here with San Diego coming to Arrowhead for the opener at home. The Chargers’ offense is mediocre at best, and their offensive line should pick up where they left off last year. This is the kind of game we are looking for – not necessarily the lowest-scoring profile on the board, but the Chargers should throw early, often, and relatively ineffectively. This provides extra opportunities for the Chiefs to rack up sacks, turnovers, and therefore defensive touchdowns.

The Seahawks have the most obvious game on the board as they are at home against the Dolphins and sit as 10.5 point favorites as of Friday morning. While 10.5 might be a little higher than things should be, it’s still sufficient enough to say the Dolphins will have trouble moving the ball. The Dolphins also have been quite generous over the past couple of years to opposing pass rushes, and the Seahawks have one of the league’s best. And while their Legion has lost some of its Boom, it’s still quite a formidable unit. All told, the Seahawks should cruise to an easy victory, and their D/ST easily finds itself in the top tier.

The top tier is easy. It should be pretty obvious, even if you have another team or two that you would sneak in here. Good teams are good. Water is wet. Etc.

Tier 2 – Arizona, Philadelphia, Houston, Green Bay, Los Angeles, Cincinnati

The great thing about the teams in tier 2 this week is that each of these teams (with the possible exception of Philadelphia) should hold some amount of value going forward. Arizona, Green Bay, and Cincinnati are very good teams all-around, and so will be favored in most of their contests. That alone is enough to get me interested. Houston and Los Angeles, while they are not quite on the same level, both have very high-quality defenses, and both should find themselves favored in home games more often than not. Again, that’s enough to get me interested. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is the beneficiary of a home game against the Browns, which on paper appear to be one of the better fades in the NFL.

While the Browns should threaten relevancy this year, ultimately I believe they fall short of that goal. Robert Griffin III should be good enough to keep them in games, but he should also present opposing defenses with plenty of opportunities to profit. Don’t let the sexy names at wide receiver fool you; the Browns are still a pretty bad team, and they should be in the mix to get the overall #1 pick in next year’s draft. Until they prove otherwise, I will consider them an automatic fade on the road, and Philadelphia is talented enough to take advantage of that. The big worry with the Eagles is their QB – Carson Wentz might not be any good. However, Vegas reacted with a resounding “Meh” when the QB trade was announced, and expectations for the Eagles remain roughly the same as before.

The other plays should all be rather obvious. Arizona is at home, and while they get the Patriots. Tom Brady is obviously not playing. The Cardinals defense is really good, they’re favored, and they should have opportunities to force turnovers. This is a perfect example of our original tenets in that it does not need to be a low-scoring game for a D/ST to profit. A high-scoring affair may lower your scoring floor, but it does not necessarily mean you stay away.

Green Bay is on the road, but the Jaguars are still a pretty safe fade at the moment. Their offensive line needs work, they’re underdogs in the game, and Blake Bortles still has the profile of a potential turnover machine. Time will tell if he resembles more the 2015 or the 2014 version of himself, but I will assume he’s a fade until he’s not. Green Bay is going to be a sneaky play more often than not this year unless things go south in a hurry for the Packers. They should expect a very good, efficient offense that will find them favored in most games this season, even on the road, and they are starting to amass a rather respectable defensive unit overall.

The Texans and Rams are in similar situations this year, although to different degrees. Both have very, very strong defenses with question marks on offense. The Texans are definitely in a better position to succeed and should benefit from an easier division, but both teams in Week 1 are tier 2 starts. The Texans have a stronger opponent, but they get to play at home; the Rams have a weaker opponent (and probably the best fade in the NFL in the 49ers), but they are forced to play on the road. Quite frankly, neither team should be available on the waiver wire, so if you have one you should just plug them in and reap the rewards.

And finally, we have Cincinnati. The Bengals get the Jets on the road, which is not normally going to be the best place to be, but Ryan Fitzpatrick can be a very generous fade. This game checks most of the boxes: Cincinnati is favored and playing against a turnover-prone QB, albeit on the road. I would not expect many sacks and I would expect a rather low scoring floor, but the upside here is high enough that they sneak into tier 2. My algorithm ranks them as the worst team in the tier, and I would agree.

I would start every team in tier 1 over each team in tier 2, and I would start the teams in tier 2 in the following order: First Arizona, then Houston, then Los Angeles, then Green Bay, then Philadelphia, then Cincinnati. However, please do consider each of these teams as roughly equivalent for Week 1 only – that is why they find themselves on the same tier. Stressing out over 0.1 or 0.2 points of expectation is not what you need to be doing in fantasy football; you can find stronger edges elsewhere.

Tier 3 and Below

There are a lot of good teams in these tiers, and a lot of teams that could be sneaky good. If you find yourself in a deeper league, you can look at one of these teams to bide time until later.

Denver – The Broncos were historically good for most of last season, and so they are being vastly overdrafted in 2016. I would never have them on my team going into Week 1. However, if you do have them on your team and cannot pivot into one of the teams in a higher tier, don’t fret, you can afford to wait and see with them. However, do not expect anything like what they got you last year, and temper expectations this week in particular. The Broncos get the Colts next week at home, which should be a relatively higher-scoring profile but potentially profitable for the Denver D/ST.

Minnesota – I really liked the Vikings before Bridgewater’s horrific injury. I think I still like the Vikings anyway, as Shaun Hill (Sam Bradford, as it’s still not 100% to be Hill) should be able to keep them afloat. They get a Week 1 tilt on the road, but it’s against a potentially exploitable Titans team, and so I think you can justify dipping into the tier for Minnesota if streaming is not your favored strategy. However, next week the Vikings get the Packers, so backers might be forced to stream anyway.

New England – Like Green Bay, the Patriots should be favored in most of their contests. They get a really rough matchup in Week 1, but at the same time, Carson Palmer has been known to throw an interception or two every once in a while. He is definitely not a good fade, but you could do worse than start the Patriots in Week 1. This should be a deep-league or DFS play only.

Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Tennessee – These are all teams that I found myself grabbing in MFL10 formats as 2nd or 3rd defenses, and I think all of them will surprise. In 16-team leagues they make fine plays for Week 1. However, I think in most 12-team formats with weekly roster management, you can comfortably ignore them for now. Tennessee, in particular, provides interesting upside against a Minnesota team missing its starter, although I think you can stay away in most leagues.

The other teams in tier 3 and below can most likely be ignored in most formats. The Browns are too bad to stream against Philadelphia even if they do sit in the bottom of tier 4; anybody looking to fade Carson Wentz with their D/ST should strongly consider waiting for a future weak.

The 2016 season is almost upon us. A few things to keep in mind as this column progresses throughout the season:

• The advice here is just advice. It sucks that it needs to be said, but your teams are your own to manage. Your D/ST successes are not from me, and their failures are not either. Take some credit (and responsibility!) for yourself.

• The algorithm will sharpen as we get to Week 3 or Week 4. Until then, we are forced to draw mostly from 2015s data, which is not particularly sharp.

• This is not a magic formula, and there is going to be a lot of overlap between my rankings and FantasyPros ECR or other sources. That’s because the underlying theories that we’ve been working with since 2012 are widely used and embraced.

• Have fun! This is a game. If you struggle to find enjoyment in it, you should probably consider a different game instead.

Best of luck in 2016, and I look forward to playing some defense!

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