Defense Wins Championships (Week 2)

The Jets’ defense has a favorable Week 2 matchup coming off their impressive opener

Dylan Lerch is one of the pioneers of combining Las Vegas with fantasy football, and he has been writing his Defense Wins Championships column for five straight seasons. Each installment can be found at Empeopled.com every Tuesday morning. You can follow him on Twitter @dtlerch.

The first week of NFL action is always a bit of a wild ride. Between the overall parity in the league and the relatively small sample sizes of action we get each year – not to mention the personnel and schedule changes every season – Week 1 always seems to teach us something we had no clue about even after seven months to obsess over it.

We also find ourselves chasing any number of red herrings every season. Some players come out of nowhere to surprise us (both in good and bad ways), and it’s important to keep our preseason expectations in mind when this happens. That said, not every new arrival is Kevin Ogletree, whose claim to fame was a Week 1 line of eight receptions, 114 yards, and two TDs in 2012. That single game was more than 10% of his career production over six years. Sometimes, the player that shows up big in Week 1 really is a different guy than we expected.

Week 1 for us was a mixed bag with D/STs, as it often is. The first three weeks of the season are particularly rough because D/STs show an even weaker year-to-year correlation than most skill positions do. Last week Philadelphia excelled, although news later in the week led to a recommendation of caution. Minnesota excelled, although caution was recommended with them from day 1. Carolina came through with a solid nine points, but the Broncos equaled that total after being projected a couple of points lower.

Overall, the projections showed a small, positive rank correlation of 0.257 in Week 1’s projections vs MFL scoring results, which is a fairly normal outcome for the first couple of weeks. By comparison, FantasyPros’ ECR showed a stronger rank correlation of 0.467. This is no surprise: ECR should outperform this algorithm for the first three weeks, at which point we will have enough information from 2016 to toss out last year entirely.

We may not know for a few weeks which of these lessons are permanent and which ones are simply 2016’s version of Kevin Ogletree, and unfortunately that might be too late to capitalize on the ones who are real. But we can do our best!

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Week 2 D/ST Scoring (Team, expected points – tier) – all scoring assumes MFL Standard, from www.myfantasyleague.com.

1. Carolina Panthers, 11.3 – Tier 1 (vs SF)
2. New England Patriots, 10.1 – Tier 1 (vs MIA)
3. Denver Broncos, 9.7 – Tier 2 (vs IND)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers, 9.6 – Tier 2 (vs CIN)
5. Seattle Seahawks, 9.3 – Tier 2 (at RAM)
6. New York Jets, 9.2 – Tier 2 (at BUF)
7. Houston Texans, 9.2 – Tier 2 (vs KC)
8. Philadelphia Eagles, 8.8 – Tier 3 (at CHI)
9. Green Bay Packers, 8.6 – Tier 3 (at MIN)
10. Washington Redskins, 8.4 – Tier 3 (vs DAL)
11. Arizona Cardinals, 8.3 – Tier 3 (vs TB)
12. San Diego Chargers, 8.2 – Tier 4 (vs JAX)
13. Los Angeles Rams, 8.1 – Tier 4 (vs SEA)
14. Baltimore Ravens, 8.0 – Tier 4 (at CLE)
15. Chicago Bears, 8.0 – Tier 4 (vs PHI)
16. Buffalo Bills, 7.9 – Tier 4 (vs NYJ)

Also on the fourth tier are the Oakland Raiders (7.7) and Minnesota Vikings (7.6).

Tier 1 – Carolina, New England

The Panthers in Week 1 did not quite look the part of the overall best D/ST, but they were passable. Overall they finished tied for 8th with nine points in MFL, but it took three turnovers to get there. Their front looked beatable but their secondary looked a little more experienced than they actually are. All in all, we saw enough to fire them up without any doubt against the 49ers in Charlotte. Do not be fooled by the 49ers you saw on Monday Night Football: They are still probably a very bad team. There is not too much to say here, beyond that it’s a good defense at home against a bad, turnover-prone offense.

New England would be a little trickier to back here except that they turned in a rather dominating performance Sunday against the Cardinals, one that certainly looked a lot closer on the scoreboard than it probably should have been. The Patriots D/ST only scored four points, but they did that without any turnovers and while allowing three TDs to Arizona. The scoreboard should be cleaner against Miami, they should be able to keep up the pace that their pass rush set in Week 1, and the Patriots are another pretty obvious start here on Sunday.

Tier 2 – Denver, Pittsburgh, Seattle, NY Jets, Houston

We are still at the point in the year where the big names are going to populate the top of the lists almost by default. To be quite frank, if you have Denver, Seattle, or Houston as your defense you probably should not listen to anybody who says to sit them. It is too early in the season to carry multiple D/STs, it would be silly to drop any of them, so you just need to plug them in and ride the waves. This applies to Carolina above as well, and probably New England.

Denver gets the Colts – one of the worst overall rosters in the NFL – at home, and I would not let last week’s scoreboard scare me away from starting the Broncos against Indianapolis. The Broncos are a better defense than the Lions, and in other news, water is still wet. The Seahawks are on the road, but they get a Rams team (and more importantly, a Rams QB) that already turned in what should be 2016’s worst (and most) offensive game. And while the Texans lost two home games to the Chiefs last year, they’re coming off a game where their pass rush actually included names other than J.J. Watt, so they should be much better equipped to deal with Alex Smith than they were in 2015.

And again, it’s too early in the season to be dropping a good D/ST you drafted highly, and it’s certainly too early to be carrying multiples on your roster. If you have any of the teams listed above, streaming is not for you yet. However, tier 2 does have a couple of options for teams that might be interested in streaming.

The Pittsburgh Steelers looked very good on both sides of the ball Monday night. Their offense has been the focus of the team for a number of years now, but aside from their total lack of sacks, they did just fine defensively too. Anything short of a sack counts as a 0 for your D/ST, but the Steelers were able to pressure Kirk Cousins a number of times, and they were able to convert a couple turnovers as well. With the Steelers as home favorites against Andy Dalton and the Bengals, you should expect a fairly similar game, and the Pittsburgh D/ST can expect another similar result as in Week 1. The Steelers are available in almost 80% of ESPN leagues and are probably this week’s premium streaming target.

There is so much to like about the Jets this week. First, they are coming off a game where their lackluster D/ST score is hiding the fact that they got seven sacks against a historically decent offensive line of Cincinnati. Second, they get a Bills team that struggled in more ways than one in Week 1. It’s a short week and Sammy Watkins has been in and out of the news for his foot, and while it remains to be seen if that story has any legs, we can say that Sammy’s QB struggled on Sunday. Tyrod Taylor finished with just 111 passing yards and only 122 yards overall, even as he was relatively accurate over a small number of passes. It might be a short week for the Jets, but it could turn into a long game for the Bills. The Jets are available in almost 40% of ESPN leagues, and I would not let the away game scare me away from using them as needed.

Tier 3 – Philadelphia, Green Bay, Washington, Arizona

The Eagles were one of Week 1’s most surprising outcomes. They rated very highly in our projections to begin with, but then their QB shuffle left us all confused as to what to expect. A bad offense can be a huge liability for a D/ST, but Carson Wentz actually looked the part of an NFL QB. The Eagles tied for 3rd overall D/ST in Week 1 with 11 points and were able to notch points in all three normal phases of D/ST scoring: three sacks, one turnover, and just 10 points allowed. The Chicago Bears are a better team than the dumpster fire in Cleveland, but they themselves just conceded an 11 point D/ST score to the Texans. The Eagles are available in almost 70% of ESPN leagues, and if you’re streaming and need to dip down to tier 3, they should have you covered pretty well.

The Packers were discussed ad nauseum last week. They are a great offense with a relatively favorable schedule, and they are favored by Vegas in each of their remaining games (barring a catastrophic injury or something strange on the field). That is a recipe for success with your D/ST, since winning games is fairly correlated with good D/ST scores. However, most of the fantasy football world has caught on to the Packers, as they’re only available in about 10% of leagues. They’re an excellent option for people who want to opt out of streaming, even though their Week 4 bye will be a bit of a downer. Do not let the Vikings scare you away. They scored 25 points against the Titans, but 14 of those were scored by their defense.

Arizona probably falls into the same bucket as the other universally-owned D/STs like Carolina or Seattle. They’re not as good this week as the others, but they are still too good to drop, and all things considered an eight-point expectation from your D/ST is more than fine. More importantly, they are too good to drop, and again it is far too early to be carrying multiple D/STs on your roster.

That just leaves the team from Washington. They turned in quite a strange game Monday night, where they seemingly alternated between “capable” and “incapable” multiple times during the four quarters. Streamers should take note, in particular, because the Redskins D/ST is virtually freely available in every league. They are at home against a Dallas team that looked fairly beatable, and who are starting a rookie QB that was much less efficient than his preseason starts suggested he might be. The Cowboys in Week 1 gained just 227 yards through the air on 45 pass attempts and were forced to settle for four field goals versus just one touchdown.

The Redskins are by no means a great start this weekend, and probably have both a low floor and a low ceiling. However, anybody needing a dart throw in a deeper league could do far worse this week.

Tier 4 and Below

Between Pittsburgh, NY Jets, Philadelphia and Washington, there should be little need to dip into this tier for most players. However, as always, there are a few names that stand out above the others.

Los Angeles: Whew, they were bad in Week 1. Josh Freeman’s Monday Night disaster in 2013 was more efficient than Case Keenum’s night. Todd Gurley did everything he could but one man cannot raise a sinking ship. The Rams defense did not even do their part, and their scary-on-paper front seven looked more like seven paper tigers. However, there are a few important indicators that the Rams could be better this week than last week.

• Russell Wilson looked mediocre at best on Sunday, and could be battling an ankle injury after getting stepped on by Ndamukong Suh. Was it intentional? Who knows, but when someone has made headlines multiple times for stepping on players, I’m less inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt. Either way, a hobbled Wilson spells good news for the Rams.

• The Rams are at home, and while historical trends like this need to be taken as fluff more than substance, the Rams do seem to give the Seahawks fits when there appears to be a mismatch.

• The following things are good about the Seahawks offensive line:

All in all, if I had the Rams on my team, in most cases I would probably be starting them. However, if you can pivot into one of the stronger options above, then you should probably do it. The Rams next week go on the road for two contests, and while the Buccaneers are not a scary foe, the Cardinals the week after certainly are.

Minnesota: The only D/ST to score a touchdown in Week 1 managed to score two of them. Their 24 points were, therefore, a little deceptive, but they turned in a great game either way. Time will tell whether the Titans are simply that prone to turnovers or if the Vikings are just that good at creating them, although the truth is probably somewhere in between. However, the schedule provides a great excuse for anybody who wants a larger sample size, because the Vikings get the Packers this week. I am of the opinion that there are some teams that you simply do not fade with your D/ST, and the Packers with Aaron Rodgers is one of them. Start the Vikings at your own risk.

Baltimore: The Ravens get their swing at the Cleveland Browns this week, and their projection here is lower than I expected. However, it does make some element of sense. First, the Browns offense should be slightly more effective with Josh McCown, although he is rather prone to turnovers. Second, the game is being played in Cleveland, although you could not tell that from the line of Baltimore -7.

Mostly, the Ravens were so bad in 2015 that their projection is being depressed. They only allowed a single touchdown to the Bills in Week 1, but failed to put up any really strong indicators that scores like that are sustainable going forward. It is rather remarkable that they kept Buffalo down so well and yet scored just six points in MFL Standard scoring! Betting against the Browns is going to be a safe bet all year, and the Ravens are available in almost 90% of ESPN leagues. I would lean toward shying away this week but would not fault anybody who dissented, and consensus does indeed have them much higher than I do.

Kansas City: The Chiefs are a really tough sell this week, but they’re also too good to drop in most formats. I think most owners are priced into starting them this week and hoping for the best. If you can pivot into a team like New England, then by all means make the swap; or if you’re planning on dropping them for their bye in Week 5, you can probably swap a little more aggressively. Otherwise, you’re likely priced in on KC.

Good luck this week!

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