Ndamukong Suh and the Dolphins D/ST has a great matchup Week 3
Dylan Lerch is one of the pioneers of combining Las Vegas with fantasy football, and he has been writing his Defense Wins Championships column for five straight seasons. Each installment can be found at Empeopled.com every Tuesday morning. You can follow him on Twitter @dtlerch.
It becomes easy to justify almost any decision after the results are in.
“Of course the Seahawks lost to the Rams. They’re 2-5 against them on the road in the last 7 years.”
“Of course the Jaguars lost to the Chargers. Jacksonville has been outscored on the West Coast by 260-93 over the last decade.”
And so on. Narrow the sample size in enough ways and you’re bound to find some garbage statistic that sounds important, but in reality is completely meaningless without more context. When dealing with numbers, you need to consider both the size of the sample, but also the relevance of the hypothesis you’re working with.
Most people don’t care about any of the above. They will grab hold of any statistic they can that “proves” why they should have picked the Chargers in Week 2, or why they should have avoided the Seahawks. Maybe they made a bold prediction before the games began and want some validation? Maybe they made a mistake and want to feel better about it? Either way, it is a dangerous trap to fall into.
Week 2 was much more normal than Week 1, in that D/STs scored far closer to their historical averages, and the teams at the top of the rankings make a lot more sense now than they did a week ago. Our top-tier plays last week, Carolina and New England, finished with 15 and 9 points, respectively. Our second tier was a little more treacherous (with the Jets and Seahawks failing to live up to expectations), but it still averaged 11.6 points per team on the tier.
The overall rank correlation for Week 2 was 0.4413; Fantasy Pros ECR was 0.4341. Given the sample for Week 2 is still majority 2015, it is a very good result.
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Week 3 D/ST Scoring (Team, expected points – tier) – all scoring assumes MFL Standard, from www.myfantasyleague.com.
- Carolina Panthers, 11.1 – Tier 1 (vs MIN)
- Green Bay Packers, 10.5 – Tier 1 (vs DET)
- Miami Dolphins, 10.5 – Tier 1 (vs CLE)
- Seattle Seahawks, 10.0 – Tier 2 (vs SF)
- Houston Texans, 9.8 – Tier 2 (at NE)
- Denver Broncos, 9.4 – Tier 2 (at CIN)
- Cincinnati Bengals, 9.3 – Tier 2 (vs DEN)
- Arizona Cardinals, 9.0 – Tier 2 (at BUF)
- New England Patriots, 8.5 – Tier 3 (vs HOU)
- Dallas Cowboys, 8.4 – Tier 3 (vs CHI)
- Kansas City Chiefs, 8.3 – Tier 3 (vs NYJ)
- Pittsburgh Steelers, 8.3 – Tier 3 (at PHI)
- New York Jets, 8.1 – Tier 4 (at KC)
- Baltimore Ravens, 7.8 – Tier 4 (at JAX)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7.8 – Tier 4 (vs LA)
- Minnesota Vikings, 7.7 – Tier 4 (at CAR)
Tier 1 – Carolina, Green Bay, Miami
Carolina is as locked in as it gets right now. They have averaged 12 points per game through their first two, they were a top tier D/ST for most of last season, and they get a home game this week as heavy favorites. Vegas expects this game to be low-scoring. As good as Sam Bradford looked on Sunday Night Football, the Panthers should be in a position to take advantage of his mediocre offensive line (and that might be too kind to them). But let’s be honest, if you have the Panthers D/ST on your roster, you should be looking for excuses to start them, not looking for excuses to sit them. Dial them up another week and probably every week through their bye.
The Packers are perhaps a little more curious here. There may be some sample size issues here, but they have not been bad through two games. They get a Detroit team that has not been very kind to opposing D/STs, but the game is being played in Wisconsin and the Packers are heavy favorites. The model is probably expecting the Packers to force more turnovers than they should expect, however the rest of their profile is in line with our preseason thoughts. If in reality Green Bay is not a tier 1 starter this week, they should not be any lower than tier 2. Those of us with the Packers can enjoy one more week with them before we are forced to drop them for their bye.
The final tier 1 start this week is Miami. The Dolphins have been a very up-and-down team defense through the past couple of seasons. They were my favorite pick for a sleeper D/ST in 2015; it turned out that they were all sleep and no sleeper. Here in 2016, they held Seattle in check but then got destroyed by New England’s offense. Or did Seattle simply hold themselves in check? We need more data to be sure either way. However, what we do know is that Miami’s opponent is very, very bad. The Cleveland Browns have picked up where they never left off and are a generous team to start a D/ST against every single week. This week, the Dolphins are at home, heavily favored, and there’s a nonzero chance we get to see the Browns’ third string QB at some point during this game. Yes, please. The Dolphins are available in most leagues and should be the first target for streamers this week.
Tier 2 – Seattle, Houston, Denver, Cincinnati, Arizona
Four teams on this tier are not widely available, and perhaps Cincinnati can be considered a fifth. That makes the analysis here a little less important, but perhaps no less interesting. To be brief: If you have any of these teams, just go ahead and start them this week. Do not drop one for Green Bay, because the Packers have a bye next week. Do not drop one for Miami, because these teams to do not project much worse than the Dolphins and should have much more future value.
Easy, right?
I am not yet worried about the Seahawks (just kidding, I’m extremely worried, but we need more time to say for sure). Their defense is still an automatic start.
The Texans are favored on the road, in prime time, against a 3rd string QB for the New England Patriots. It’s all but assured that they will lose by a couple of touchdowns. That’s just what the Texans do. But in the event that the universe does not conspire against them, Houston make an excellent play this week after a very pleasantly surprising Week 2 result.
There is no public line yet for Cincinnati-Denver. I used Cincinnati -3 and an over/under of 41. By the middle of this week we should have something a little more concrete to work with, and both teams can be considered great starts this week regardless. If the Bengals are favored by more than three, then they are the preferred option here. If it is three or less, then the Broncos get the nod. Either way, they’re separated by a virtual coin flip, so do not stress too much about the difference.
The Cardinals round out the tier with another virtually 100%-owned D/ST. Don’t drop them, don’t pivot from them, and don’t sit them for a week. However of all the teams on this tier, they are the one that I am least confident about. Arizona gets to play on the road, and while their opponent is an exploitable Buffalo team, the Cardinals defense is set up such that a game plan like last Thursday’s for Buffalo could put up points in a hurry. It would not surprise me to see Tyrod Taylor connect on a deep shot or two like he did against the Jets.
Tier 3 and Below
Since the top two tiers are mostly devoid of streamers, a lot of us are going to have to dip into these ranks to pull something together.
New England is available in 26% of leagues and they would be my first choice. They are playing at home and have a very solid defensive team. They also get the benefit of a great upcoming schedule that should stave off streaming for a couple of weeks: vs Houston, vs Buffalo, at Cleveland, and then vs Cincinnati. Those first three weeks are fairly automatic for a team that should be top 12 overall.
The Chiefs are even less available than the Patriots, but they are a fine stop on this tier too. However, they get a bad matchup next week and then their bye, so this might be the end of the line for Kansas City. After their bye is a very mixed stretch and will be very hard to plug-and-play and so are fairly easy to get away from in Week 3.
The most interesting streaming choice this week is Dallas. Whether Jay Cutler plays or not, the matchup is exploitable. The Cowboys are at home and favored in what should be a reasonably low-scoring game. The Bears have been the third most-generous team to opposing D/STs in their first two games this season, conceding 11 and then 13 points to the Texans and Eagles, respectively. And somehow, Brian Hoyer is still out there waiting for his shot. He will throw away his shot. The Cowboys are available in 97% of ESPN leagues and should be the number 1 target for streamers outside of the top tier.
Tampa Bay make an intriguing option as well, although they must be accompanied by tempered expectations. The Buccaneers are one of those teams that could put up 40 or give up 40 on any given week and both outcomes make sense. Their D/ST so far has scored just 2 points through 2 games, including a -4 stinker in Week 2. Why would you ever start them? Desperation and the LA Rams, which to be quite honest go hand in hand pretty well. The Bucs are at home against Case “19217 passing yards in college” Keenum, and any hole in the Tampa defense gets plugged quite quickly by the worst starting QB in the NFL. I would not be thrilled to start them here in Week 3, but in a 14- or 16-team league the option should be cherished.
Finally, what should you do with the Minnesota Vikings? Well, they are on the road and facing the best offense in the NFL. They’re also the number one D/ST through two weeks, buoyed in large part by the two TDs they scored in Week 1, but they would be in the top 4 even without those. They are probably too good to drop until their Week 6 bye, because their next two games are at home against the Giants and Texans, and they should be favored in both. You probably have to start them and hope for the best, but don’t be hoping for anything more than 6-8 points without getting lucky.
Between Miami, Dallas, and Tampa Bay there are three streamers that most leagues should have available in some quantity. For a really deep shot, you can look at the NY Giants or the LA Rams, but I would try not to steer too far from the list above otherwise.
The NFL season is now more than 12% finished, and the fantasy football regular season is even more complete than that. It will be over before you know it!
Best of luck in Week 3.
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