Giving bad advice that costs fantasy owners games is upsetting. Few predicted New England would beat Houston with a third string QB and that Rob Gronkowski would play, but have zero catches on one target. How do you not start an active Gronk? But, it sure is rewarding when we get it right. There are players I undervalued who are currently leading the league, but Larry Fitzgerald is one of my home runs.
I have to say it; I told you Don’t Pass on Larry Fitzgerald. In fantasy drafts, Fitzgerald was drafted as WR27, and 76 percent of experts on FantasyPros believed he would not meet the expectations of his ADP. Experts touted his teammates, Michael Floyd and John Brown as the players to draft and believed Fitzgerald would regress from his 2015 statistics. I said it then and will reaffirm it now; Larry Fitzgerald is the receiver to own in Arizona now and for the rest-of-season.
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Fitzgerald is off to a blazing start with 13 receptions, 158 yards, and three TDs. He did have a similar start to 2015 scoring 63.3 standard fantasy points over the first three weeks but eventually did slow down. However, this is his second year working primarily out of the slot, and I argue, when healthy, he is completely uncoverable in the middle of the field and will always be Carson Palmer’s primary receiver. Fitzgerald has drawn 10 targets in both games and is also Palmer’s favorite red zone target. Many experts are deeming him as a “sell-high candidate” with the belief that his value is highest now. The opposite argument would be: If you drafted Fitzgerald, you got a steal in the sixth round and should hold tight to a steady season-long WR2.
It’s undeniable, John Brown and Michael Floyd will have big games. But, they are big play receivers and will always be dependent on low-percentage throws to achieve fantasy relevance. Their role in the offense is to spread the field and provide big plays in single coverage opportunities. John Brown did have over 1,000 yards receiving, seven TDs and finished as WR20 last year, but that production came on only 65 receptions. Floyd had 849 yards receiving and six TDs on 52 receptions. I view these guys as high upside boom-or-bust players I only try and play if I am down big.
Rest-of-Season
Except facing Seattle in Weeks 7 and 16, Fitzgerald has a favorable upcoming schedule. He faces the fantasy-friendly secondaries of the New York Jets, San Francisco twice, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Washington and dream matchups in playoff Weeks 15 and 16 against Miami and New Orleans. There are concerns about regression, his age, and a lingering knee issue, but Fitzgerald is too good and too motivated to fail. Look for him to remain a WR2 with upside.
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Brad Cowger is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Brad, check out his archive and follow him @FP_BradCowger.
