Eric Moody provides his wide receiver target analysis to help fantasy football owners prepare for Week 3.
How often do you use target numbers to make fantasy football decisions? Targets measure the number of times a quarterback throws to a running back, wide receiver or tight end. Many owners will use this information to make start/sit decisions, determine what players to pick up on the waiver wire or to determine what specific players to focus on in trades. FantasyPros publishes a report that provides data on the most targeted running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends each week. Fantasy football owners are looking for consistency week in and week out in terms of production. Do target numbers alone provide that? The purpose of this column is to dive deeper into the target numbers to better understand what it means. I will also provide projections on the top 20 wide receivers for Week 3.
I have ranked the top 30 fantasy wide receivers by their total number of targets and have broken them down into tiers. Each tier has a visual of a wide receiver’s target share, yards per target, and other statistics. My intent is to provide commentary of certain wide receivers in each tier.
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Tier 1
| Rank | Player | Team | Targets | Rec | Pct | Yds | TD | Long | Yds/Target | Yds/Rec | Fantasy Points |
| 1 | Mike Evans | TB | 18 | 6 | 33 | 70 | 1 | 19 | 4 | 12 | 13 |
| 2 | Jeremy Maclin | KC | 15 | 6 | 40 | 68 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 11 | 6.8 |
| 3 | Jarvis Landry | MIA | 13 | 10 | 77 | 135 | 0 | 33 | 10 | 14 | 11.5 |
| 4 | Devante Parker | MIA | 13 | 8 | 62 | 106 | 0 | 28 | 8 | 13 | 10.6 |
| 5 | Dez Bryant | DAL | 12 | 7 | 58 | 102 | 0 | 21 | 9 | 15 | 10.2 |
Source: FantasyData
Evans has been targeted 24 times through the Buccaneers first two games. He only caught 33 percent of his targets in a tough Week 2 matchup against the Cardinals. It remains to be seen if Evans can capitalize on this target volume. He owns a 30.4 percent target share through two games, has a 20.4 yard aDOT (via Pro Football Focus) or depth of target, and is still on the WR1 radar.
Maclin can be viewed as a solid WR3 with WR2 upside. He owns a 26.8 percent target share and had produced a 12.7 aDOT through two games. Maclin has been targeted 21 times through the Chiefs first two games.
Landry continues to be a target machine. He has been targeted 19 times through two games, but only has an aDOT of 6.3 yards. Landry is a WR2 with WR1 upside in PPR formats and owns a 32.4 percent target share through two games.
Parker’s injury woes throughout his short NFL career have been well documented. It was encouraging to see him receive 13 targets in his first game of the season. Can Parker continue to stay healthy in order to take advantage of the target volume?
It was nice to see Bryant get back on track for fantasy owners in Week 2. He has an aDOT of 16.3 yards and owns a target share of two games of 23.3. Cowboys wide receiver Cole Beasley (18) currently has two more targets than Bryant (16) through two games.
Tier 2
|
Rank |
Player | Team | Targets | Rec | Pct | Yds | TD | Long | Yds/Target | Yds/Rec | Fantasy Points |
| 6 | Stefon Diggs | MIN | 11 | 9 | 82 | 182 | 1 | 46 | 17 | 20 | 24.2 |
| 7 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 11 | 7 | 64 | 113 | 1 | 35 | 10 | 16 | 17.3 |
| 8 | Jordy Nelson | GB | 11 | 5 | 46 | 73 | 1 | 39 | 7 | 15 | 13.3 |
| 9 | Marvin Jones | DET | 11 | 8 | 73 | 118 | 0 | 47 | 11 | 15 | 11.8 |
| 10 | Odell Beckham Jr | NYG | 11 | 8 | 73 | 86 | 0 | 17 | 8 | 11 | 8.6 |
| 11 | T.Y. Hilton | IND | 11 | 4 | 36 | 41 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 4.1 |
| 12 | Antonio Brown | PIT | 11 | 4 | 36 | 39 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 3.9 |
Diggs continues to capitalize on his opportunity. He was a wide receiver I was very high on heading into the season. Diggs has an aDOt of 12.3 yards and owns a 31.3 target share through two games. He can be viewed as a weekly WR2 with upside.
Hopkins has picked up where he left off last season, but he does have competition for targets from rookie Will Fuller. He has an aDOT of 12.8 yards and owns a 25 percent target share. Hopkins remains a weekly WR1.
Nelson has 20 targets through two games in a Packers offense that still appears out of sync. He owns a 29 percent target share and has an aDOT of 1o yards. Nelson remains a mid-range WR1 that should be started every week.
Jones continues to be the Lions wide receiver to own. He owns a 27.6 target share and has totaled 21 targets through two games with an aDOT of 11.4. Jones can be viewed as a weekly WR2 given the number of soft pass defenses on the Lions schedule.
Beckham has not had a definitive game through two games this season. He has accumulated 19 targets and has an aDOT of 10.9 yards. Beckham owns a 27.5 percent target share and remains an elite WR1. He will boom sooner rather than later.
Hilton has totaled 20 targets through two games and owns a 27.4 percent target share. He and Phillip Dorsett will be the team’s top two wide receivers given the unfortunate injury to Donte Moncrief. Hilton has an aDOT of 11.7 and can be viewed as a weekly WR2.
Brown remains an elite WR1, but he was not able to capitalize on his target volume in Week 2. He owns a 29.7 percent target share and an aDOT of 12.3 yards.
Tier 3
| Rank | Player | Team | Targets | Rec | Pct | Yds | TD | Long | Yds/Target | Yds/Rec | Fantasy Points |
| 13 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 10 | 5 | 50 | 77 | 1 | 25 | 8 | 15 | 14.1 |
| 14 | Torrey Smith | SF | 10 | 3 | 30 | 55 | 1 | 28 | 6 | 18 | 11.5 |
| 15 | Kenny Britt | LA | 10 | 6 | 60 | 94 | 0 | 36 | 9 | 16 | 9.4 |
| 16 | Julian Edelman | NE | 10 | 7 | 70 | 76 | 0 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 7.6 |
| 17 | Allen Hurns | JAX | 10 | 5 | 50 | 64 | 0 | 24 | 6 | 13 | 6.4 |
| 18 | Terrelle Pryor | CLE | 10 | 3 | 30 | 32 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 11 | 3.2 |
Fitzgerald remains a weekly WR2 and continues to leverage his role in the Cardinals offense. He owns a 28.2 percent target share and an aDOT of 11.1.
Smith was championed as a breakout candidate ever since Chip Kelly became the 49ers new head coach. He has received only 14 targets through two games and his catch rate suggests a boom or bust quality. Smith has an aDOT of 13.2 yards and cannot be viewed as anything more than a high-upside WR4 at this point until we see more consistency.
Britt’s target volume is encouraging, but the Rams offensive situation is not. He is off the radar in most fantasy leagues despite having a 25 percent target share and an aDOT of 10.5 yards. I recommend to keep him on your watch list. Britt’s fortunes could change if the Rams first-round draft selection Jared Goff finds himself under center.
Edelman’s target volume should not come as a surprise. He has stayed relatively healthy up until this point of the season. Edelman’s fantasy production should skyrocket once Patriots quarterback Tom Brady returns from his suspension. He currently owns a 26.4 percent target share.
Hurns has only accumulated 15 targets through two games with a 12.2-yard aDOT. Pryor’s target share with the Browns is currently 28.8 percent with an aDOT of 20.7 yards. The Browns quarterback situation truly caps his upside.
Tier 4
| Rank | Player | Team | Targets | Rec | Pct | Yds | TD | Long | Yds/Target | Yds/Rec | Fantasy Points |
| 19 | Kelvin Benjamin | CAR | 9 | 7 | 78 | 108 | 2 | 25 | 12 | 15 | 22.8 |
| 20 | Brandon Marshall | NYJ | 9 | 6 | 67 | 101 | 0 | 37 | 11 | 17 | 10.1 |
| 21 | Amari Cooper | OAK | 9 | 5 | 56 | 71 | 0 | 25 | 8 | 14 | 7.1 |
| 22 | Jordan Matthews | PHI | 9 | 6 | 67 | 71 | 0 | 32 | 8 | 12 | 7.1 |
| 23 | Brandin Cooks | NO | 9 | 7 | 78 | 68 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 6.8 |
| 24 | Tavon Austin | LA | 9 | 5 | 56 | 50 | 0 | 27 | 6 | 10 | 5.6 |
| 25 | Vincent Jackson | TB | 9 | 4 | 44 | 44 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 4.4 |
| 26 | Golden Tate | DET | 9 | 2 | 22 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 1.3 |
Benjamin owns a 30 percent target share and is scoring touchdowns at will. He is a WR1 that was drafted as many fantasy owners WR3 or WR4.
Marshall may be hampered by a knee injury in Week 3. If he sits then Jets wide receiver Quincy Enunwa stands to benefit. Marshall has a 25 percent target share through two games.
Cooper continues to be a great buy-low candidate. The touchdowns will come, but a target share of 24.4 percent is what will continually land him on the weekly WR1 radar.
Matthews can be viewed as a weekly WR2. He currently owns a target share of 32.9 percent and an aDOT of 11.5 yards. Cooks (21.7) and Snead (20.5) have an eerily similar target share and similar aDOT. It is nice to see both wide receivers have success, but the fantasy owners who snagged Snead late in drafts are still grinning from ear to ear.
Tier 5
| Rank | Player | Team | Targets | Rec | Pct | Yds | TD | Long | Yds/Target | Yds/Rec | Fantasy Points |
| 27 | Corey Coleman | CLE | 8 | 5 | 63 | 104 | 2 | 47 | 13 | 21 | 22.4 |
| 28 | Eric Decker | NYJ | 8 | 6 | 75 | 126 | 1 | 35 | 16 | 21 | 18.6 |
| 29 | Sterling Shepard | NYG | 8 | 8 | 100 | 117 | 0 | 32 | 15 | 15 | 11.7 |
| 30 | Willie Snead | NO | 8 | 5 | 63 | 54 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 11 | 11.4 |
| 31 | Jamison Crowder | WAS | 8 | 6 | 75 | 39 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 9.9 |
Decker remains a solid WR2 with a 22.1 percent target share. Shepard’s fantasy upside is capped by Victor Cruz. Crowder remains criminally underrated and is a wide receiver I recommend aggressively targeting if he is still available. He has a 20.7 percent target share through two games.
Red Zone Targets
| Rank | Player Name | Team | Inside 20 | Inside 10 | Inside 5 | Team % |
| 1 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 3 | 3 | 3 | 37.5 |
| 2 | Mike Evans | TB | 3 | 1 | 1 | 100 |
| 3 | Tyrell Williams | SD | 3 | 1 | 1 | 30 |
| 4 | Dez Bryant | DAL | 3 | 3 | 2 | 37.5 |
| 5 | Allen Hurns | JAX | 3 | 1 | 0 | 50 |
| 6 | Josh Doctson | WAS | 3 | 2 | 1 | 30 |
| 7 | Nelson Agholor | PHI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 42.9 |
| 8 | Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | 3 | 2 | 2 | 100 |
| 9 | Brandon LaFell | CIN | 3 | 1 | 0 | 42.9 |
| 10 | Stefon Diggs | MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 66.7 |
| 11 | Kelvin Benjamin | CAR | 2 | 2 | 0 | 66.7 |
| 12 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 2 | 1 | 1 | 33.3 |
| 13 | Danny Amendola | NE | 2 | 1 | 0 | 33.3 |
| 14 | Mike Wallace | BAL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 100 |
| 15 | Jordy Nelson | GB | 2 | 1 | 1 | 66.7 |
| 16 | Alshon Jeffery | CHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 40 |
| 17 | Julian Edelman | NE | 2 | 0 | 0 | 33.3 |
| 18 | Michael Floyd | ARI | 2 | 2 | 2 | 25 |
| 19 | Andre Holmes | OAK | 2 | 2 | 1 | 28.6 |
| 20 | Eddie Royal | CHI | 2 | 1 | 1 | 40 |
Benjamin, Diggs, Wallace, Fitzgerald and Evans provide fantasy owners an advantage on a weekly basis with this usage in the red zone. The Chargers (10), Redskins (10), and Cardinals (8) led the league in red zone pass attempts in Week 3.
WR Fantasy Points Allowed
| Rk | Player | WR Pts |
| 1 | Oakland Raiders | 43.8 |
| 2 | New York Jets | 35.4 |
| 3 | Buffalo Bills | 32.4 |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 32.4 |
| 5 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 32 |
| 6 | New Orleans Saints | 30.9 |
| 7 | Washington Redskins | 29.9 |
| 8 | Cleveland Browns | 28.6 |
| 9 | Arizona Cardinals | 27.6 |
| 10 | Miami Dolphins | 27.2 |
Up above is a visual of the top-10 defenses ranked in terms of fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. This section of the weekly column will provide you with the top six defenses to target for wide receiver production.
Week 3 Projections
There are numerous statistics and metrics out there revolving around the NFL and fantasy football. It is easy to get overwhelmed and drown in all of it. It is critical to have an operating system to process and manage it all. My methodology revolves around what I like to refer to playing the piano with both hands. You can make music only playing with one hand, but when you use both that is when things really come together. The narrative based information carries weight, but not as much as snap counts, targets, routes run, or red zone usage. When you pair all of those things together in your process it really gives you clarity. That is an approach to take with projections. It allows you to take a firm stance on the range of outcomes for different players. Here is a visual of my Week 3 projections for the top-25 wide receivers ranked by number of targets:
| Rank | Player | Team | Targets | Pct | Yds | TD |
| 1 | Antonio Brown | PIT | 14.2 | 61.2 | 98 | 0.7 |
| 2 | Jarvis Landry | MIA | 13.7 | 58.1 | 85 | 0.4 |
| 3 | Julio Jones | ATL | 12.5 | 72.3 | 120.3 | 0.8 |
| 4 | Odell Beckham Jr | NYG | 12.4 | 63.6 | 111.8 | 0.8 |
| 5 | Jordan Matthews | PHI | 11.1 | 60 | 75.2 | 0.4 |
| 6 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 10.8 | 60.1 | 85.9 | 0.7 |
| 7 | Randall Cobb | GB | 10.4 | 60.3 | 74.4 | 0.4 |
| 8 | Mike Evans | TB | 10.1 | 60.6 | 78.2 | 0.6 |
| 9 | Kelvin Benjamin | CAR | 10 | 60 | 85.2 | 0.7 |
| 10 | Julian Edelman | NE | 9.4 | 67 | 57.3 | 0.4 |
| 11 | Jeremy Maclin | KC | 9.2 | 66.3 | 67.6 | 0.4 |
| 12 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 9.1 | 74.8 | 83.9 | 0.7 |
| 13 | Jordy Nelson | GB | 9 | 58.6 | 76.4 | 0.6 |
| 14 | Allen Robinson | JAX | 8.9 | 59.6 | 77.9 | 0.5 |
| 15 | Marvin Jones | DET | 8.8 | 58.8 | 67.5 | 0.4 |
| 16 | Stefon Diggs | MIN | 8.5 | 60.6 | 68.6 | 0.5 |
| 17 | AJ Green | CIN | 8.3 | 75 | 58.5 | 0.7 |
| 18 | Travis Benjamin | SD | 8.2 | 62.8 | 85.3 | 0.4 |
| 19 | Golden Tate | DET | 8.9 | 65.5 | 59.8 | 0.3 |
| 20 | Tajae Sharpe | TEN | 7.9 | 64.3 | 86.8 | 0.4 |
| 21 | Brandon Marshall | NYJ | 7.8 | 62.7 | 61.7 | 0.3 |
| 22 | Michael Crabtree | OAK | 7.5 | 68.3 | 57.9 | 0.4 |
| 23 | Dez Bryant | DAL | 7.3 | 62.9 | 69.4 | 0.6 |
| 24 | Alshon Jeffery | CHI | 7.1 | 63.5 | 79.5 | 0.5 |
| 25 | Demaryius Thomas | DEN | 7 | 70.4 | 65.8 | 0.3 |
Conclusion
Eighteen wide receivers had double-digit targets in Week 2. Landry was the only wide receiver with double-digit receptions. Twenty-nine wide receivers had double-digits fantasy points in standard scoring formats. Wide receiver production matters in fantasy football. What stood out to you the most regarding the wide receiver production? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out to me and follow me on Twitter @EricNMoody. I am very active, engaged with my followers, and happy to provide feedback to put you in a position to win your fantasy football league. Until next time!
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