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Fantasy Basketball Bust Candidates

Fantasy Basketball Bust Candidates
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Otto Porter is being drafted several rounds too early

Avoiding players who bust, especially early in the draft, is just as important as finding that late-round gem. Usually when we think about “Bust” we’re looking to avoid players who are injury prone, players who are past their prime and players who may have had a great season last year but will not this year. Also, we can base our process just based on their ranking.

Let’s take a look at some players who will are most likely to bust this season:

Jimmy Butler
Right now, Jimmy Butler is going top ten in some drafts. However, the additions of Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo all but guarantee that Butler won’t repeat last season’s top-15 finish. Wade and Rondo need the ball in their hands to create. Teams will dare the Bulls to beat them from the perimeter, something that Jimmy is not particularly good at (1.0 3PG on 31.2 3P%). Expect an increase in threes, but a decrease in shot attempts.

John Wall
Wall seems to be drafted Year after year around the early second round and somehow always fails to live up to his draft price.  Last season in 9-category leagues, Wall didn’t event finish within the top-20, nor has he any time in his career. Now coming off of surgery on both of his knees, his  upside is limited not only by that but he’s never been consistent. Wall still can’t take care of the ball 4.1 TOPG), and has poor scoring percentages (42.4 FG%, 79.1 FT%).

Carmelo Anthony
Melo has only been a top-35 player the past two seasons. This upcoming season, however, he’ll have competition for touches as Derrick Rose will demand usage. So will Kristaps Porzingis as his role increases. The 32-year-old’s numbers have declined two seasons in a row due to knee soreness and Melo doesn’t put up great defensive numbers. I’ve always stayed away from Melo but if you wanna gamble on him be my guest.

Kevin Love
Since joining the Cavaliers, Love has decreased in nearly every statistical category, except turnovers. His role limits his upside and makes him no more than a boring mid-round pick. Right now, his ADP is around the third round and I don’t think he even smells the top-20. If he slides to the fifth round then I’ll consider him. In the third round, you want guys with plenty of upside and Love provides very little defensive stats.

Otto Porter
Third Round??? Porter had a decent run in the last months of the season, however, he only averaged 11.6 PPG and we’re not even sure what is role will be with Kelly Oubre looking good in the pre-season, and Bradley Beal is back. Easy Fade.

Jeff Teague
Some people are going to feel mixed about this one. Teague was a decent pick last year. However, he was in inconsistent and Dennis Schroder was even taking over for him especially in the playoffs. He’s in Indiana now where he’ll have to share the ball with Monta Ellis and Paul George. He’s definitely a gamble in the middle rounds. A gamble I wouldn’t make.

Rajon Rondo
Rondo looked like his old self in his lone season in Sacramento. Now in Chicago, after a top 50 finish where he led the league in assists, I just think another top 50 finish will be extremely tough to come by. He’ll be a great source for assists and steals but will kill your percentages.

Andrew Wiggins
Wiggins may see a minor bump in playing time, but owners currently drafting Wiggins within the top-50 will have to hope that his game expands besides scoring to be worth a mid-round pick.  He finished outside the top 100 but he provided owners with plenty scoring (20.6 PPG). The lack of across-the-board production is what scares me about Wiggins. There’s plenty of players available in the same range as Wiggins that have both a higher ceiling and higher floor.

Steven Adams
Don’t let the playoff run fool you on this one. Adams was the player no one wanted on your waiver wire because he couldn’t score (11.4) and was a horrible free throw shooter (57.2%). The opportunity is there for Adams but I don’t see him being justified as a fifth or sixth round pick.

Devin Booker
Booker had an extremely impressive rookie year that didn’t translate to much fantasy value. He simply does not contribute in enough categories right now to be more than a specialist  for scoring.  While Phoenix had a bunch of injuries, Booker played 35.3 MPG during that stretch and averaged 18.5 PPG, 1.7 3PG, and 3.8 APG. Despite the huge minutes and gaudy counting stats, the rookie was only a top-175 option over that span. The return of  Eric Bledsoe, as well as the presence of Brandon Knight, will make life difficult for Booker.

Bradley Beal
Beal is a guy who can’t stay healthy and can only score. He’s missed an average of 20 games per year since entering the league in 2012 and doesn’t produce enough on a per game basis to justify his current seventh-round price. In 2015-2016, the only categories  Beal produced above-average numbers were points (17.4 PPG) and threes (1.9 3PG). He doesn’t rebound enough (3.5 RPG) and will kill your percentages (44.9 FG%, 76.7 FT%).

Jahlil Okafor
Okafor is your traditional big man that plays back to the basket. A player who needs a significant amount of touches to be a useful fantasy asset. He was the focal point of the Sixers’ offense last season, but with Ben Simmons now in town and  the return of Joel Embiid, Okafor will be no longer be the star of the show. Don’t expect him to match his (17.5 PPG) or rebounding rate (7.0 RPG). Stay away until the final rounds.

Don’t touch these guys just because of age: Tony Parker,  Al Jefferson

Nicolas Wilcox is a correspondent for FantasyPros. To read more from Nicolas, check out his archive or follow him @nick_wilcox25.

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