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Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 8

by Aaron Medvidofsky
Oct 28, 2016

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Can Ryan Fitzpatrick take advantage of a prime matchup?

Aaron Medvidofsky analyzes which players he believes are overvalued or undervalued in Week 8.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Aaron head to FantasyTruth.

In this column, I reveal the players that I believe are being overvalued or undervalued on a weekly basis. This is based on where I stand on a player in comparison to the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, or ECR for short. For Week 8 I’ll be giving you one overvalued and one undervalued player at each position along with the reasons that my opinion differs from the other experts.

Before getting into my Week 8 picks, let’s take a moment and see how I did against the experts in Week 7. These results are based on FantasyPros Fantasy Football Leaders.

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Overvalued

Undervalued

It was very close this week but the ECR was slightly more accurate than my predictions in Week 7. One of the biggest takeaways from this week is that Jay Ajayi is the real deal and shouldn’t be underestimated.

Overvalued

Matt Ryan (QB – ATL) ECR: 2nd

Why the experts like him
What’s not to like? Ryan is the top overall quarterback this year and has a juicy matchup against Green Bay. The Falcons offense has been virtually unstoppable and Ryan has feasted as a result.

Why I think he’s overvalued
One of the biggest contributors to Ryan’s fantasy success has been his duo of elite running backs catching passes out of the backfield. They have created nightmare matchups against safeties and forced opponents to alter their game strategy to deal with them. As of right now, Tevin Coleman looks unlikely to play this week and Devonta Freeman is dealing with a hip injury. This will make the Falcons offense far less dynamic and heavily impact Ryan’s upside this week.

Ka’Deem Carey (RB – CHI) ECR: 36th

Why the experts like him
Carey was the lead back against the Packers last week, out touching Jordan Howard 11-7 and outgaining him by a large margin. This should be enough to earn him a share of the carries in Chicago headed into this week.

Why I think he’s overvalued
I don’t believe one mediocre outing can turn Carey from a useless fantasy commodity to an RB3/Flex play in Week 8, even in a good matchup. Speaking of matchups, this one against Minnesota is a nightmare. I would not be surprised if Carey couldn’t even crack the top 50 running backs for this week.

Dez Bryant (WR – DAL) ECR: 20th

Why the experts like him
There’s little question that Bryant is the best wide receiver on the Cowboys. He has been given plenty of time to heal and should be full-go this week against the Eagles. We have seen huge games from Bryant in the past and many are thinking he will get right back into the swing of things.

Why I think he’s overvalued
Bryant has yet to show any real chemistry with Dak Prescott. This week against an underrated Philadelphia defense, I believe he needs a touchdown to be fantasy relevant. When (or if) Tony Romo returns I would happily buy back into Dez, but it doesn’t look like that isn’t happening this week which puts Dez in the WR3 range for me.

Jack Doyle (TE – IND) ECR: 7th

Why the experts like him
Ever since Dwayne Allen’s injury, Doyle has been an every-week starter for fantasy purposes. The Colts defense makes them a pass-heavy team which has allowed plenty of targets to head Doyle’s way. If that target share stays steady he is one of the more reliable players at his position.

Why I think he’s overvalued
The Colts look as if they may get their second and third receivers back this week in Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett. They are going to start commanding targets which will push Doyle out of the TE1 discussion. His upside is further dampened this week by a Kansas City defense that apparently specializes at stopping tight ends, allowing significantly below the league average in fantasy points scored to the position.

Undervalued

Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB – NYJ) ECR: 16th

Why the experts dislike him
It isn’t a bold statement to say that Fitzpatrick has played horribly this year. He has thrown for almost twice as many interceptions as touchdowns, which isn’t exactly something you’re looking for in a starting quarterback. His troubles so far have convinced most to stay away, regardless of matchup.

Why I think he’s undervalued
The Cleveland Browns haven’t exactly faced a murderers row of quarterbacks, yet they still find themselves near the bottom of the league in fantasy points allowed to the position. Fitzpatrick will be able to put up at least 20 points with the upside for significantly more this week. I wouldn’t have any hesitation streaming him as a QB1.

Mike Gillislee (RB – BUF) ECR: 21st

Why the experts dislike him
Gillislee will have a tough task ahead of him this week. He will be handling his largest load of the season and it comes against the stingy Patriots defense. There is concern that this game could get away from the Bills, leading to a pass-heavy game script.

Why I think he’s undervalued
Despite the tough matchup it’s difficult to bet against someone that should be a feature back. Gillislee has been very effective with the touches he’s been given and should get the workload to approach RB1 production. He also benefits from playing this game at home, where the Bills have always been competitive.

John Brown (WR – ARI) ECR: 44th

Why the experts dislike him
Carson Palmer has struggled to get the ball to his trio of wide receivers this year and it’s tough to see him returning to his 2015 form. John Brown has had consistency struggles of his own, being almost eliminated from that stat lines for some games this year. All of this combined with his limited practice participation this week has Brown off the fantasy radar for most this week.

Why I think he’s undervalued
With it looking like Brown is ready to play this week and Michael Floyd trending in the opposite direction there are reasons to be optimistic. Carolina doesn’t have a great passing defense, and I believe that Brown will establish himself as the not so distant second receiving option this week and going forward. This is enough to make him a high-end WR3 in my rankings.

Antonio Gates (TE – SD) ECR: 19th

Why the experts dislike him
Hunter Henry has been drawing some targets from Philip Rivers which has limited Gates’ upside from week to week. It doesn’t help that Gates has missed time and been limited in multiple games this year. The public opinion on Gates is at an all time low right now which has dropped him in the ECR rankings.

Why I think he’s undervalued
Despite his lackluster performance last week, Gates saw 10 targets which was significantly more than his younger counterpart. He is still the preferred possession receiver in San Diego and will have more weekly upside going forward. Even in a difficult matchup, I believe that Gates will get his against Denver and finish the week as a borderline TE1.


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