If Derek Anderson ends up starting on Monday, he wouldn’t make a bad spot start against a poor Buccaneers’ defense
I remember several years ago; I was driving home from work on a Monday evening listening to a fantasy football podcast. The host asked the analyst how his weekend went, fantasy football-wise. The analyst said something to the effect of, “Well, I lost in most of my leagues, but I hit on a lot of my recommendations. So, the weekend went well.”
That struck me as … well, dumb. We’re all in this to win our leagues, and every rational fantasy football player goes into a 24-hour, deep depression after a fantasy football loss. Seriously, I share my most important league with my friend Fitz, and my wife knows if we’ve won or lost a matchup each week because of whether my phone is buzzing or not on Sunday night.
If I’m getting constant texts, they’re from Fitz, and we’re talking about our team and our win (also, Karate Kid, Half Baked, and general nonsense). If we’ve lost, I don’t hear from Fitz for at least a day. It’s understood. We need time to recover.
So, I never understood how your fantasy teams could lose, but you could still feel good about fantasy just because some of your calls worked out. But, I’ve been writing this column for several weeks, and I now 100 percent understand. Watching Russell Wilson lead one of my teams to victory was great, but I couldn’t help but be annoyed at the fact that I left him out of this column last week.
I’m not at all close to being ready to neglect my leagues. I will still sit in a dark room for three hours minimum on every Monday after a loss like I always do. But, I’ll be honest, the results of my calls are starting to really determine how I feel about every weekend. So, for this week, I’m aiming for the equivalent of a Fitzy text barrage from the results of these picks. Let’s do this right.
So with that, let’s start with another round. Here is how the QBs finished last week.
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1) Matt Ryan
2) Ben Roethlisberger
3) Blake Bortles
4) Russell Wilson
5) Derek Carr
6) Joe Flacco
7) Brian Hoyer
8) Philip Rivers
9) Dak Prescott
10) Case Keenum
11) Andrew Luck
12) Alex Smith
Here were my predictions:
1) Cam Newton
2) Drew Brees
3) Philip Rivers
4) Andrew Luck
5) Ben Roethlisberger
6) Matthew Stafford
7) Kirk Cousins
8) Blake Bortles
9) Carson Palmer
10) Joe Flacco
11) Derek Carr
12) Brian Hoyer
Notable omissions: Russell Wilson
A notable omission from the notable omissions list: Matt Ryan. Yeah, I don’t know why I forgot to list him as an omission. Something about being lost in the excitement of watching A.J. Green carry my fantasy team last Thursday.
Alrighty, so, definitely some good things in there. Flacco wasn’t a certainty, and Hoyer was ranked 21st in the ECR. So, mild pat on the back there. Then there are the big whiffs on Wilson and Ryan, and the overall mediocrity of seven out of 12. So, let’s do better this week.
The Obvious Names
Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Ugh, I missed you, man. Thank goodness your bye weeks are over. You know the deal. Rodgers is good, and he’s in here every week, so I refuse to justify the decision with analysis and instead give you one random Rodgers fact to make you keep coming back. Here’s this week’s: Rodgers owns an alternative rock label called Suspended Sunrise Recordings.
Tom Brady (NE)
Welcome back to you, too, good sir. Truth be told, I can’t imagine that Brady just steps in and looks like his old self right away. He hasn’t been allowed to practice with the team during his suspension and take it from someone who never played organized athletics before, you need that practice time, guys.
Plus, who knows what’s going on with Gronkowski? Still, it’s angry Brady, and you’re obviously starting him against a Browns team that has allowed 10 passing touchdowns already. Let’s not get too cute. Just not sure we’re going to see peak Brady for a bit.
Andrew Luck (IND)
Man, if Luck isn’t having repeated nightmares about defensive linemen almost destroying him, then he is one mentally tough dude. The Colts’ offensive line has been abysmal, and Luck has almost no time to throw. Thankfully, it’s looking like the Colts may be back to full strength on the line and, quite frankly, Luck is still getting his points for the most part.
Does it matter to fantasy owners that they’re coming in garbage time and come while he’s running for his life? It does not. The Bears actually rank well in passing defense, but you’re starting Luck.
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
Raise your hand if you thought you had an insurmountable lead heading into Sunday night, only to watch Big Ben go nuts but barely miss that TD pass and manage to win by .13? Anyone else?
Roethlisberger’s reward for nearly sinking my hopes and dreams is to get a Jets’ team that has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and may be without Darrelle Revis. Roethlisberger destroys pretty much everyone at home – he’s thrown for at least three TDs in five consecutive home games – and should have some fun in this one.
The Still Pretty Obvious Names
Cam Newton/Derek Anderson (CAR)
As of now, I don’t expect Newton to play, but since it’s a concussion, there’s just no way to tell as I write this. I’m including both him and Anderson here just to make it clear that I’m in even if Anderson gets the start. Incidentally, my buddy Fitz I mentioned before is a Bucs’ fan and described the team’s pass defense as “somewhere between truly awful and so outrageously awful that I legitimately forget I’m watching an NFL team sometimes.”
Fitz exaggerates, but the Bucs have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, and do not seem interested in keeping games close. Oh, and oddly enough, Anderson’s last two starts were in 2014, both were against the Bucs, and he threw for a combined 507 yards and three TDs. So, he’s good to go here, too.
Philip Rivers (SD)
I don’t know what the Chargers have done to anger the football gods, but they are ANGRY. After eliminating nearly every offensive weapon, they’ve turned their attention to the Chargers’ defense, taking down poor Jason Verrett. That team needs to sacrifice a live chicken or something.
Anywho, Rivers just keeps doing his thing, and now gets a Raiders’ defense allowing more than 325 passing yards per game and giving up the third-most fantasy points to QBs. Rivers will need to throw – like usual – and apparently, Melvin Gordon has decided he does not want to take advantage of his opportunity anymore. All the throws in this game. All. The. Throws.
Derek Carr (OAK)
Carr is rolling these days and now gets to have some fun with a San Diego defense that struggles when it comes to that whole slowing down the passing game thing. The Chargers have given up at least 300 yards to every QB they have faced this year (except to Drew Brees, somehow), and they’ve allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three of their four games. Oh, right, and Jason Verrett is done for the season, as we just discussed. Not good. Unless you’re Carr. Then, very good.
Eli Manning (NYG)
Did anyone else feel like they could have played as well as Manning last week? Hike – “Ok, take a seven step drop. Wait, pressure. Where’s my running back? That could be him. Here, I will throw it at your feet quickly to not get pummeled but also avoid intentional grounding. Phew, that was close.”
Well, that Vikings pass defense is legit, but the Green Bay pass defense? Not so much. They’ve given up the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. And you know the Giants will need some points. Plus, come on now. Odell Beckham is getting a touchdown this week after all the drama.
You know it. I know it. The American people know it.
The Oh I See You Over There Names
Carson Wentz (PHI)
What can I say? The kid looks legit. We should have known when the Browns could have but didn’t opt to grab him at the second spot in the draft, right?
The Lions’ defense loves giving up points to QBs (see Hoyer, Brian), and has allowed 12 TDs in four games. Wentz is averaging 256 yards passing, has five TDs and no INTs. Plus, he gets Zack Ertz back. Done and done.
Brian Hoyer (CHI)
Let it henceforth be known that when I go against the ECR and name you both in this piece and in my bold predictions piece, you get named here the next week. Since Hoyer became the starter, he’s the fourth best QB in fantasy, and here come the Colts, fresh off their London trip. Look guys, I’ve been to London.
There’s a lot of fun things to do there. The London Eye. The Tower of London. Westminster Abbey.
Those Colts players lived it up and will surely be exhausted coming home this week. Oh yeah, and they’re 25th against the pass and allow an average of 277 yards per game. Make it rain in here, Hoyer.
Joe Flacco (BAL)
Don’t love Flacco this week, but we’re running out of viable options. Washington is pretty decent against the pass, allowing just two passing TDs over the last three games. But, there’s been noise from Flacco and the Ravens about needing to take more shots downfield, and I’m sort of buying it.
Flacco ranks 30th in the league in yards per attempt at just 6.3. With Steve Smith finding the fountain of youth and Mike Wallace able to outrun most defenders, there should, and probably will, be more deep shots. I’m thinking Flacco does enough to sneak into the QB1 range.
The Why Not You Name
Ryan Tannehill (MIA)
A bit of a gut call here, since the Titans are usually pretty solid against the pass, having given up just four passing TDs and the sixth-fewest points to quarterbacks this season. But, I don’t know, at some point, Adam Gase has to get this offense working. With some extra time to prepare for this one and desperately needing a win at home, I just have a feeling that Tannehill has a solid game.
Not a ringing endorsement, I know, but what do you want from me? Get Brees, Wilson and Bortles off their byes, and we’ll have better options, ok?
The Glaring Omission
Andy Dalton (CIN)
I understand he appears to be in everyone’s top 12, but I just can’t. Note, if the Dolphins’ game gets postponed because of the weather (and stay safe Florida!), then Dalton gets the reluctant bump to QB1 status. But, yuck.
Week 4: 7-5
Overall Record: 25-23 (52%)
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Dan Harris is a correspondent with FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him @danharris80.
